Within the Margin of Error
Expectations for Policy Change and Participation
Curtis Bram
Public Opinion Quarterly, Winter 2023, Pages 1000-1012
Abstract:
What policy changes do people expect from elections, and how do these expectations influence the decision to vote? This paper seeks to understand the relationship between people’s expectations and their subsequent voting behavior by examining beliefs about what candidates would actually do if given political power. I start with a survey of political scientists and compare their forecasts about what presidential candidates will accomplish to those of the general population. Public respondents expected much more legislation to result from the 2020 election. This comparison suggests an underestimation by the public of the impediments that the separation of powers poses to passing legislation. The study further reveals that voters expected much more policy change than nonvoters did, with high expectations serving as a strong predictor of validated voter turnout. These results support explanations for the decision to vote that center on the policy benefits that people believe their preferred candidate will deliver.
Partisan Gerrymandering and Turnout
Daniel Jones, Neil Silveus & Carly Urban
Journal of Law and Economics, August 2023, Pages 557-579
Abstract:
How does partisan gerrymandering affect turnout for US House elections? Common measures of gerrymandering are a function of turnout, which makes assessments of the impacts on turnout difficult. We present evidence from two natural experiments. First, using a nationwide sample, we construct a state-level measure of gerrymandering based on the partisan composition of districts and leverage variation stemming from congressional redistricting. Second, we draw on Pennsylvania and Ohio voter files and leverage the court-ordered redrawing of Pennsylvania districts in 2018 aimed at undoing partisan gerrymandering. Both approaches reveal that higher levels of partisan gerrymandering causally reduce turnout.
Evaluating the Minority Candidate Penalty with a Regression Discontinuity Approach
Ariel White et al.
British Journal of Political Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
Do parties face an electoral penalty when they nominate candidates of colour? We employ a regression discontinuity design using state legislative election data from 2018, 2019, and 2020 to isolate the effect of nominating a candidate of colour on a party's general election performance. Utilising this approach with real-world data heightens external validity relative to existing racial penalty studies, largely supported by surveys and experiments. We find no evidence that candidates of colour are disadvantaged in state legislative general elections relative to narrowly nominated white candidates from the same party. These findings challenge the leading explanations for the underrepresentation of racial/ethnic minority groups, with implications for candidate selection across the United States.
District versus at-large voting: Why district voting results in worse policy for minorities
Donald Wittman
European Journal of Political Economy, forthcoming
Abstract:
By making use of voting-rights acts, minorities have forced cities to convert from at-large elections to district elections when there is racially polarized voting and the minority percentage on the city council is significantly below the percentage of the minority population. The voting-rights acts also provide for the creation of majority/minority districts so that minorities are more likely to be elected to city councils. This article undertakes a detailed theoretical analysis of both district and at-large elections and shows that minorities are likely to be better off when there are at-large elections. In at-large voting systems, winning council candidates represent the median over all voters. In contrast, when there are district elections, each council member represents the interests of the median voter in their district. City council policy is then determined by the median council member, whose district represents few if any minorities. Various complications, such as non-voting, are considered with surprising results.
Partisan communication in two-stage elections: The effect of primaries on intra-campaign positional shifts in congressional elections
Mike Cowburn & Marius Sältzer
Political Science Research and Methods, forthcoming
Abstract:
The influence of congressional primary elections on candidate positioning remains disputed and poorly understood. We test whether candidates communicate artificially “extreme” positions during the nomination, as revealed by moderation following a primary defeat. We apply a scaling method based on candidates language on Twitter to estimate positions of 988 candidates in contested US House of Representatives primaries in 2020 over time, demonstrating validity against NOMINATE (r > 0.93) where possible. Losing Democratic candidates moderated significantly after their primary defeat, indicating strategic position-taking for perceived electoral benefit, where the nomination contest induced artificially “extreme” communication. We find no such effect among Republicans. These findings have implications for candidate strategy in two-stage elections and provide further evidence of elite partisan asymmetry.
Non-Religious Identity Salience for Candidate Choice
Spencer Kiesel
American Politics Research, forthcoming
Abstract:
Religion is on the decline in the United States. Americans increasingly report low religiosity, have less attachment to religion, and a rapidly growing number identify as nonreligious. In Congress, the story is different. While a quarter of the public identifies as nonreligious, only one member of Congress does. Why are the nonreligious vastly underrepresented in government? I use a conjoint candidate choice experiment to causally link religious voters’ bias against nonreligious candidates to reduced support for them in electoral settings. I demonstrate that bias against the nonreligious affects electoral decisions and is causally linked to the exclusion of the nonreligious from government. Furthermore, I show that nonreligious voters only exhibit in-group support for candidates who explicitly identify as Atheists, not agnostic or candidates that merely lack a religious identity.
Local elections do not increase local news demand
Joshua McCrain & Erik Peterson
Political Science Research and Methods, forthcoming
Abstract:
Anemic demand for local news has contributed to an industry crisis. We consider whether local elections, which highlight the ability of local television stations and newspapers to provide information that is unavailable from national news outlets, increase local media use. While we show these elections are a time of increased attention to local politics in the news and among the public, we also find local media outlets do not benefit from this when considering behavioral news use measures. Relative to news outlets in cities without an election, local television remains substantively unchanged during local elections. Newspaper website traffic is largely stable, although it falls slightly the month after an election. In both cases these differences are small, even when considering close races and those happening off the federal election cycle. This shows limits on the ability of salient local political events to motivate local news use.
House Members on the News: Local Television News Coverage of Incumbents
Gregory Huber & Patrick Tucker
British Journal of Political Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
The accountability relationship between voters and elected members of Congress (MCs) hinges on the potential for citizens to learn about legislator behaviour. In an era of declining local newspapers, local television coverage of MCs potentially fulfils this important role. However, few studies have comprehensively examined the determinants of contemporary MC coverage by local television news broadcasts. In this paper, we leverage a vast database of local television news broadcast transcripts spanning two years to identify which factors explain MC coverage. We find that MCs receive little coverage outside the general election campaign season. Media market and campaign-specific factors are associated with more exposure when coverage occurs. Finally, we find that within competitive elections, incumbents receive only a marginal advantage in coverage. These findings provide a springboard to explore further questions regarding Congress, local media, and political accountability.
National Origin Identity and Descriptive Representativeness: Understanding Preferences for Asian Candidates and Representation
Jennifer Wu
Public Opinion Quarterly, Winter 2023, Pages 978–999
Abstract:
This paper examines how an Asian candidate’s national origin background affects their perceived ability to represent different constituents. Would Asian voters prefer any Asian candidate over someone who is non-Asian? Using a series of survey experiments that randomly emphasize the national origin backgrounds of two real politicians and a hypothetical politician, I find that politicians who are East or Southeast Asian are viewed as more representative of Asian American interests than those who are South Asian. Nonetheless, respondents agree that Asian politicians, regardless of national origin, will represent Asian Americans more than a non-Asian politician. While national origin background matters, there is still potential for an electoral advantage based on shared Asian panethnicity. These results contribute to our understanding of the salience of panethnic identities in electoral contexts.
Media, Secret Ballot, and Democratization in the US
Leopoldo Fergusson, Juan Felipe Riaño & B.K. Song
Journal of Historical Political Economy, Fall 2023, Pages 391-425
Abstract:
Can the media determine the success or failure of major institutional reforms? We study the adoption of secret voting in the United States and the complementary role of the media in this arguably crucial step to improve democracy. Using a difference-in-differences identification strategy and a rich dataset on local newspapers, we show that in areas with high media penetration, democratization outcomes improved following the adoption of the secret ballot. Specifically, the press contributed to the decrease in partisan attachment and support for dominant parties. Remarkably, it also undermined the manipulation of electoral boundaries (redistricting) and the unintentional decline in turnout incentivized with the secret ballot. To further address the potential endogeneity of newspapers, we use an instrumental variable that exploits the introduction of wood-pulp paper technology in 1880 and counties' initial woodland coverage. We argue that the media mattered through the distribution of information to voters and increased public awareness about political misconduct.