The Causes and Consequences of Terrorism
Valuing the Risk of Death from Terrorist Attacks
Lisa Robinson, James Hammitt, Joseph Aldy, Alan Krupnick & Jennifer Baxter
Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, 2010
Abstract:
Regulations designed to increase homeland security often require balancing large costs against highly uncertain benefits. An important component of these benefits is the reduced risk of fatalities from terrorist attacks. While the risk to an individual appears small, the benefits may be large when aggregated over the population. U.S. regulatory agencies have well-established approaches for valuing mortality risks, but address risks that differ in significant respects from those associated with terrorism. The best available estimates of the value of small risk reductions, expressed as the value per statistical life (VSL), average about $6.5 million. However, terrorism-related risks may be perceived as more dreaded and ambiguous, and less controllable and voluntary, than the workplace risks underlying many VSL estimates. These factors may increase the VSL appropriate for terrorism risks, possibly doubling the value.
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The strategic calculus of terrorism: Substitution and competition in the Israel-Palestine conflict
Aaron Clauset, Lindsay Heger, Maxwell Young & Kristian Skrede Gleditsch
Cooperation and Conflict, March 2010, Pages 6-33
Abstract:
Previous work on the dynamics of conflicts where we see terrorism has tended to focus on whether we see shifts in attack mode following government countermeasures. We contend that many factors other than counterinsurgency can influence whether groups resort to terrorism, including competition between groups, as well as their relationship to public opinion and other political events. Hence, understanding terrorist tactics in prolonged conflicts with multiple actors requires us to consider a more general framework of innovation, imitation, competition and dependence between actors. We use disaggregated data on terrorist attacks, counterterrorism and public opinion in the Israel-Palestine conflict to jointly evaluate predictions derived from several conventional theories of strategic behaviour. We find that the strategic calculus of Palestinian groups is complex and cannot be treated as time invariant. Our results suggest that factors such as the degree of public support, inter-group competition, the anticipation of countermeasures and non-trivial non-violent payoffs have an observable effect on the strategic behaviour of the Palestinian groups, and that structural relationships are often far from constant over time.
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The Politics of Threat: How Terrorism News Shapes Foreign Policy Attitudes
Shana Kushner Gadarian
Journal of Politics, April 2010, Pages 469-483
Abstract:
In this paper, I argue that the features of the media environment after 9/11, particularly the media's emphasis on threatening information and evocative imagery, increased the public's probability of supporting the policies advocated by political leaders, principally the president. Using the National Election Studies 2000-2004 panel and a controlled, randomized experiment, I demonstrate that citizens form significantly different foreign policy views when the information environment is emotionally powerful than when it is free of emotion, even when the factual information is exactly the same. Citizens concerned about terrorism are more likely to adopt the hawkish foreign policy views communicated in threatening news stories when that policy is matched with fear-inducing cues than when it is not. These findings suggest that the role of the media is broader than simply providing a conduit for elites to speak to the public; the media influences the public through their own means as well.
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David Cuillier, Blythe Duell & Jeff Joireman
Journalism, April 2010, Pages 185-202
Abstract:
This study, based on terror management theory, employs an experiment to examine how the thought of death affects people's attitudes toward a watchdog press. Findings suggest that people who most value national security demonstrate less support for a watchdog press when primed to think of death than security-minded participants in a control group. The results provide one potential explanation for rally-around-the-flag effects and for why some people more strongly oppose journalists criticizing the government during times of mortal strife, such as war or terrorist attacks. Implications discussed include suggestions, based on theory, for preventing these attitudinal shifts, and the application of terror management theory to other areas of political communication research.
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The Dark Side of the Future: An Experimental Test of Commitment Problems in Bargaining
Dustin Tingley
International Studies Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
While most existing theoretical and experimental literatures focus on how a high probability of repeated play can lead to more socially efficient outcomes (for instance, using the result that cooperation is possible in a repeated prisoner's dilemma), this paper focuses on the detrimental effects of repeated play, the "Dark Side of the Future". I study a resource division model with repeated interaction and changes in bargaining strength. The model predicts a negative relationship between the likelihood of repeated interaction and social efficiency. This is because the longer shadow of the future exacerbates commitment problems created by changes in bargaining strength. I test and find support for the model using incentivized laboratory experiments. Increases in the likelihood of repeated play leads to more socially inefficient outcomes in the laboratory.
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The mythical post-2005 Israeli occupation of the Gaza Strip
Avi Bell & Dov Shefi
Israel Affairs, April 2010, Pages 268-296
Abstract:
Consistent with the resolution of the government of Israel and the proclamation of the Military Commander, in 2005 Israel withdrew all Israeli military forces from Gaza, forcibly removed all Israeli civilians, and dismantled its military administration in the entirety of the Gaza Strip. In addition, Israel abandoned its presence in the 'Philadelphi Corridor' - the border area between the Gaza Strip and Egypt. Notwithstanding this complete withdrawal from Gaza, a number of legal advocacy groups, UN organs and other observers have continued to opine that Gaza is under Israeli occupation. This article examines the validity of claims that Israel still 'occupies' Gaza under the laws of war and occupied territory. The article concludes that such claims are without any basis in international law. It should be emphasized that this article assumes, arguendo, that prior to 2005, Gaza was territory belligerently occupied by Israel; it does not enter into the disputes about whether Gaza should have been considered occupied territory from 1967 to 2005.
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Sex and the Shaheed: Insights from the Life Sciences on Islamic Suicide Terrorism
Bradley Thayer & Valerie Hudson
International Security, Spring 2010, Pages 37-62
Abstract:
Theoretical insights from evolutionary psychology and biology can help academics and policymakers better understand both deep and proximate causes of Islamic suicide terrorism. The life sciences can contribute explanations that probe the influence of the following forces on the phenomenon of Islamic suicide terrorism: high levels of gender differentiation, the prevalence of polygyny, and the obstruction of marriage markets delaying marriage for young adult men in the modern Middle East. The influence of these forces has been left virtually unexplored in the social sciences, despite their presumptive application in this case. Life science explanations should be integrated with more conventional social science explanations, which include international anarchy, U.S. hegemony and presence in the Middle East, and culturally molded discourse sanctioning suicide terrorism in the Islamic context. Such a consilient approach, melding the explanatory power of the social and life sciences, offers greater insight into the causal context of Islamic fundamentalist suicide terrorism, the motivation of suicide terrorists, and effective approaches to subvert this form of terrorism.
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Yun Zhou
Energy Policy, forthcoming
Abstract:
In November 2007, China's State Council approved its "Medium- and Long-Term Nuclear Power Development Plan", which set as a goal to increase the nation's nuclear capacity from about 7 to 40 GWe by 2020. In March 2008, the National Development and Reform Commission suggested installed nuclear power capacity might even exceed 60 GWe by 2020 due to faster than expected construction. Even with this growth, nuclear power's share of China's installed total capacity would be only about 5 percent. Yet China's rapid nuclear expansion poses serious financial, political, security, and environmental challenges. This study investigates China's claim that nuclear energy is necessary to meet its growing energy demands by analyzing China's energy alternatives and assessing their likelihood of contributing to total Chinese capacity. By looking at China's transformative energy policy from several perspectives, this study finds that nuclear energy is indeed a necessity for China.
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The Economic Cost of Harboring Terrorism
Efraim Benmelech, Claude Berrebi & Esteban Klor
Journal of Conflict Resolution, forthcoming
Abstract:
The literature on conflict and terrorism has paid little attention to the economic costs of terrorism for the perpetrators. This article aims to fill that gap by examining the economic costs of harboring suicide terror attacks. Using data covering the universe of Palestinian suicide terrorists during the second Palestinian uprising, combined with data from the Palestinian Labor Force Survey, the authors identify and quantify the impact of a successful attack on unemployment and wages. They find robust evidence that terror attacks have important economic costs. The results suggest that a successful attack causes an increase of 5.3 percent in unemployment, increases the likelihood that the district's average wages fall in the quarter following an attack by more than 20.0 percent, and reduces the number of Palestinians working in Israel by 6.7 percent relative to its mean. Importantly, these effects are persistent and last for at least six months after the attack.
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Why Respecting Physical Integrity Rights Reduces Terrorism
James Walsh & James Piazza
Comparative Political Studies, forthcoming
Abstract:
Does respect for human rights check or promote terrorism? This question is hotly debated within policy circles. Some hold that restricting human rights is a necessary if unfortunate cost of preventing terrorism. Others conclude that such abuses aggravate political grievances that contribute to terror. The authors demonstrate that theory and data support the latter position. They hypothesize that abuse of the subset of rights known as physical integrity rights fuels terrorism by making it more difficult for government authorities to collect intelligence on terrorists and by undermining domestic and international support for their counterterrorism efforts. They test this hypothesis using a data set that includes measures of both domestic and transnational terrorist attacks and find that respect for physical integrity rights is consistently associated with fewer terrorist attacks. This suggests that those interested in curtailing terrorism should press governments to more carefully respect physical integrity rights.
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The Strategic Substitution of United States Foreign Aid
Christopher Fariss
Foreign Policy Analysis, April 2010, Pages 107-131
Abstract:
I present a foreign policy decision-making theory that accounts for why US food aid is used strategically when other more powerful economic aid tools are at the disposal of policymakers. I focus my analysis on US food aid because this aid program provides an excellent case with which to test for the existence of foreign policy substitution. Substitution is an important assumption of many foreign policy theories yet proves to be an allusive empirical phenomenon to observe. Central to this analysis is the identification of legal mechanisms such as the ''needy people" provision in the US foreign aid legislation that legally restrict certain types of aid; this mechanism, however, does allow for the allocation of certain types of foreign aid, such as food aid, to human rights abusing regimes. Thus, I test if food aid is used as a substitute for human rights abusing states while methodologically accounting for other aid options. The empirical results, estimated with a multinomial logit and Heckman model, demonstrate that countries with high levels of human rights abuse are (i) more likely to receive food aid and (ii) receive greater amounts of food aid even when controlling for other economic aid, the conditioning effect of strategic interests and humanitarian need over the period 1990-2004.
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Christopher Blattman & Edward Miguel
Journal of Economic Literature, March 2010, Pages 3-57
Abstract:
Most nations have experienced an internal armed conflict since 1960. Yet while civil war is central to many nations' development, it has stood at the periphery of economics research and teaching. The past decade has witnessed a long overdue explosion of research into war's causes and consequences. We summarize progress, identify weaknesses, and chart a path forward. Why war? Existing theory is provocative but incomplete, omitting advances in behavioral economics and making little progress in key areas, like why armed groups form and cohere, or how more than two armed sides compete. Empirical work finds that low per capita incomes and slow economic growth are both robustly linked to civil war. Yet there is little consensus on the most effective policies to avert conflicts or promote postwar recovery. Cross-country analysis of war will benefit from more attention to causal identification and stronger links to theory. We argue that micro-level analysis and case studies are also crucial to decipher war's causes, conduct, and consequences. We bring a growth theoretic approach to the study of conflict consequences to highlight areas for research, most of all the study of war's impact on institutions. We conclude with a plea for new and better data.
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Law from Above: Unmanned Aerial Systems, Use of Force, and the Law of Armed Conflict
Chris Jenks
North Dakota Law Review, Fall 2009, Pages 649-672
Abstract:
The United States employing armed unmanned aerial systems (UAS) or "drones" against al qaeda and Taliban targets in northwest Pakistan continues to spur discussion and disagreement. Some label UAS "armed robotic killers," while others describe them as providing a much greater degree of distinction between intended targets and the surrounding population and infrastructure, thus limiting civilian casualties and property damage. The overt disagreement as to whether the strikes are legal masks that the discussants are utilizing wholesale different methodologies, talking past each other in the process. The origin of this divergence is to what extent the law of armed conflict or human rights law applies to the use of force through the U.S. engaging targets in Pakistan with UAS. As a result, the same missile strike may be viewed as "killing the enemy" or extrajudicial killing, targeted assassination, and outright murder. Against that backdrop, the U.S. Air Force (USAF) recently graduated its first pilot training class which did not receive flight training - the graduates are heading not for the cockpit but to the controls of a UAS. The USAF trained more UAS pilots than fighter or bomber pilots in 2009 and its proposed budget for 2011 would double UAS production, resulting in ordering more UAS than manned aircraft. Over 40 countries employ UAS, including China and Iran, as well as non state actors such as Hezbollah. The ubiquitous nature of UAS will only grow, as will their capabilities. What is less certain is whether baseline agreement can be reached as to the applicable legal framework through which to disagree on employing UAS. This article seeks to add clarity to the conversation by outlining the different levels of analysis utilized to assess UAS strikes as a use of force and how those levels lead to disagreement and misunderstanding well beyond differing conclusions on legality. This article examines the permissibility of armed UAS strikes through two normative constructs: jus ad bellum, the law government resorting to force, and jus in bello, the law governing the actual conduct of a UAS strike. How one characterizes the conflict in Pakistan, internally and viz the United States, and whether Pakistan has consented to the strikes, trigger different analytical frameworks, but this article asserts the conclusion is the same - that the UAS strikes are lawful. Yet ultimately, the current discourse demonstrates that constructive dialogue is needed, not just on UAS strike legality, but on the appropriate methodology by which such conclusions are reached.
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The Company You Keep: International Socialization and the Diffusion of Human Rights Norms
Brian Greenhill
International Studies Quarterly, March 2010, Pages 127-145
Abstract:
Does membership in Intergovernmental Organizations (IGOs) affect states' human rights behavior? One might expect IGOs with a specific human rights mandate, like the International Labour Organization or the Council of Europe, to have a positive effect on the human rights practices of their member states. But what about other sorts of IGOs, particularly those with no direct connection to human rights issues? This study employs cross-national data on abuses of "physical integrity rights" for 137 countries over the period 1982-2000 to test the hypothesis that IGOs can promote the diffusion of human rights norms by providing venues for interstate socialization. Recent empirical work on IGOs has suggested that this sort of socialization effect can play an important role in promoting democracy and can also lead to a more general convergence among states' interests. The results presented here suggest that IGOs can have a surprisingly powerful influence on states' human rights practices as a result of this process.