System of Elections
Aid for Incumbents: The Electoral Consequences of COVID-19 Relief
Jeffrey Clemens, Julia Payson & Stan Veuger
NBER Working Paper, September 2024
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic led to unprecedented levels of federal transfers to state governments. Did this funding increase benefit incumbent politicians electorally? Identifying the effect of revenue windfalls on voting is challenging because whatever conditions led to the influx of cash might also benefit or harm incumbents for other reasons. We develop an instrument that allows us to predict allocations to states based on variation in congressional representation. We find that incumbents in state-wide races in 2020, 2021, and 2022 performed significantly better in states that received more relief funding due to their overrepresentation in Congress. These results are robust across specifications and after adjusting for a variety of economic and political controls. We consistently find that the pandemic-period electoral advantage of incumbent politicians in states receiving more aid substantially exceeds the more modest advantage politicians in these states enjoyed before the pandemic. This paper contributes to our understanding of economic voting and the incumbency advantage during times of crisis as well as the downstream electoral consequences of both the COVID-19 pandemic and of unequal political representation at the federal level.
Mobilization and Backlash: Asymmetric Updating in Response to Campaign Ads
Cameron Shelton
Review of Economics and Statistics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Applying a media market boundary approach to individual survey data, I show that political advertising on television increases the probability that viewers who identify with a party will espouse its positions, prefer its candidates, and turn out to vote. This is true no matter which party sponsored the ad, suggesting that an ad consolidates and motivates the sponsor's partisans while simultaneously engendering a countervailing consolidation and mobilization among supporters of the other party. My results are consistent with agents who judge a source's quality by their priors and highlight the importance of targeting supporters.
Walls, Weed, and Coal: How Threats to Local Industry Shape Economic Voting
Loren Collingwood, Jason Morín & Eitan Tzelgov
Political Behavior, forthcoming
Abstract:
Do threats to local economic industry influence voting behavior? While research has shown that voters backlash against candidates whose policies negatively affect their socio-economic status, relatively little research explores if voters can anticipate whether candidates/direct legislation threaten their local economies. We argue that individuals who are economically embedded within industries that serve as the basis of the local economy are especially sensitive to candidates/direct legislation that may harm those industries. We test our argument in three distinct scenarios. First, Texas’s Congressional District 28 is between 75–80% Hispanic stretching from San Antonio to Laredo and along the U.S. Mexico border. Between 2008–2018 Texas’ U.S. Representative Henry Cuellar faced very little opposition in the Democratic Primary and Republicans did not seriously challenge him in general elections. However, Cuellar, who is arguably the strongest Democratic supporter of privatized immigrant detention and receives large donations from prison companies, narrowly defeated Jessica Cisneros, an immigration attorney, in the 2020 primary, and then again in the 2022 primary. Voters living in areas with large shares of protective services workers, in areas that house border patrol headquarters and ICE facilities, and in areas with large shares of oil and gas workers disproportionately backed Cuellar over Cisneros in line with their economic interests. Second, halfway across the country in 2016, Californians voted on a ballot measure to legalize marijuana. The “legacy grow” high-density outdoor marijuana cultivation areas inside of the Emerald Triangle (Humboldt, Mendocino, and Trinity Counties) voted down the ballot measure despite otherwise voting strongly Democratic. Third, as the Democratic Party’s presidential candidates shifted against coal for environmental reasons, between 2000 and 2012 West Virginia voters in the highest density coal counties disproportionately shifted towards Republican candidates. These findings are consistent with our over-arching argument: When faced with keeping or potentially removing industries that serve as economic bedrocks, voters disproportionately favor the former to ensure their continued known economic station.
The “tough-on-crime” left: Race, gender, and elections of law-and-order Democrats
Isabel Laterzo-Tingley & Leah Christiani
Research & Politics, August 2024
Abstract:
In June 2021, Eric Adams -- a former captain of the New York City Police Department -- won the Democratic mayoral primary for the city of New York with 30.7% of the vote. Adams’ candidate profile struck many as unique -- a Black man, he paradoxically represented a liberal yet tough-on-crime approach. In this paper, we analyze how tough-on-crime candidates’ identities impact their favorability among progressive voters. We focus on both race (e.g., Black vs white candidates) and gender (e.g., female vs male candidates). Building on literature regarding stereotypes, perceived policy competency, and expectations among progressive voters, we hypothesize that tough-on-crime candidates will be less favorable to Democratic voters, but this will depend on candidate identity. We expect both Black and/or female tough-on-crime candidates to experience less pushback for tough-on-crime stances compared to their white and/or male counterparts. We test these expectations via a conjoint experiment included in an original, nationally representative survey of U.S. adults. Our results support the idea that Democrats punish tough-on-crime candidates, but this effect is conditional on candidate identity. Namely, Democratic Black candidates are not strongly punished for being tough-on-crime. Unexpectedly, we find that female Democratic candidates experience more electoral penalty than their male counterparts when taking tough-on-crime positions.
Why the political party that supports social welfare programs is advantaged in campaign fundraising
Noah Mark
Rationality and Society, forthcoming
Abstract:
This study examines a collective action contest between two groups of charitably-minded, rational altruists. The groups are supporters of two political parties that oppose each other in their support for a redistributive tax and social welfare benefit. Analysis identifies an asymmetry in the incentive structure that creates a fundraising advantage for the pro-redistributive party. Big government altruists (BGAs) choose between contributing to charity (i.e., individual voluntary redistribution) and contributing to the political party that supports compulsory redistribution from all of the rich to the poor. Small government altruists (SGAs) choose between contributing to charity and contributing to the political party that tries to stop compulsory redistribution from all of the rich to the poor. In other words, while BGAs choose between individual voluntary redistribution and supporting universal compulsory redistribution, SGAs choose between individual voluntary redistribution and opposing universal compulsory redistribution. Because of this asymmetry, BGAs can advance their redistributive goals (as well as their political goals) via campaign contributing while SGAs cannot. This difference creates a fundraising advantage for the pro-redistributive party. Relative to the other group, BGAs optimize by giving more to party and less to charity and SGAs optimize by giving more to charity and less to party.
Do Voters Punish Women Politicians More?
Semra Sevi, Charles Crabtree & André Blais
American Politics Research, forthcoming
Abstract:
Despite a rich literature on gender stereotypes, few studies consider whether voters reward/punish women politicians differently than their men counterparts for their policy records. To study this question, we conducted a conjoint survey experiment with a quota-based nationally representative sample of 1495 American citizens. The experiment focuses on electing one of two hypothetical councillors (keeping their political experience constant) to become a mayor. We find that voters do not penalize women politicians more for breaking campaign promises. In fact, they are at least as likely to reward women politicians for keeping their promises compared to men politicians. This is true across genders and political parties.
Running toward rankings: Ranked choice voting's impact on candidate entry and descriptive representation
Jonathan Colner
American Journal of Political Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
Does the implementation of a ranked choice voting (RCV) system increase the number, diversity, and quality of candidates competing in local elections? Using original data from 273 cities across three decades and employing a preregistered difference-in-differences design with matching, I find that the size of the candidate pool increases following implementation. However, this effect dissipates in later election cycles, indicating that RCV has no long-term effect on candidate entry. Indeed, the short-term increase in the candidate pool mostly reflects increased entry by low-quality candidates with little chance of winning. Additionally, I find that RCV has no effect on the proportion of female and non-white candidates running for office. These results call into question several purported benefits of RCV and suggest that RCV, by itself, might not be sufficient to influence candidate entry at the local level.
Does ranked choice voting increase voter turnout and mobilization?
Eveline Dowling et al.
Electoral Studies, August 2024
Abstract:
Many jurisdictions in the United States have recently adopted single-winner ranked choice voting (RCV) to replace first-past-the-post plurality elections. This study contributes to the literature examining the potential consequences of changing to RCV by modeling the relationship between electoral systems and voter turnout. We propose that RCV may increase turnout by incentivizing increased contacts with voters. Previous attempts at assessing the relationship between RCV and turnout in the US have been limited by a lack of individual-level turnout data measured across all cases where RCV is and is not used. The study utilizes large, unique data from administrative voter turnout records that overcomes this limitation. We find significant and substantially higher probabilities of turnout in places that use RCV, and find evidence that campaigns in RCV places have greater incidences of direct voter contacting than in similar places that do not use RCV.
Choice Overload in Crowded Primary Elections
Spencer Goidel & Brenna Armstrong
American Politics Research, forthcoming
Abstract:
The number of candidates running in U.S. primary elections is increasing. Contested primary elections force voters to decide between candidates that share party labels and are ideologically similar. Similar to contexts of non-partisan elections, an increase in the number of candidates should exacerbate the cognitive demand of voting in primary elections. We expect large candidate fields in primaries make voters (1) spend less time looking at each candidate profile, (2) more likely to abstain, (3) more likely to vote based on ballot position, and (4) more likely to feel overwhelmed with the decision. All four of these expectations were preregistered. We test the effect of large candidate fields on voter behavior using a survey experiment (n = 2000) fielded by YouGov. We find large candidate fields cause respondents to spend less time looking at candidate profiles, to select candidates in the first half of the ballot, and to feel overwhelmed by the decision-making process. In contrast to our expectations, we find large candidate fields make respondents less likely to abstain.
Shared Space and Civic Engagement: Block Parties and Voter Turnout in Philadelphia
Tanika Raychaudhuri, Joshua Davidson & Michael Jones-Correa
Urban Affairs Review, forthcoming
Abstract:
Along with socioeconomic resources, “strong ties” of family and friends increase political engagement. However, most daily interactions are casual encounters with “weak” social ties. How do these interactions shape political participation in urban environments? Interpersonal contact with weak ties may enable information sharing and increase voting participation. Using an original individual-level dataset that merges geocoded Census data, voter file data, and city permits for neighborhood “block parties” in Philadelphia, this study explores the ways one-off events that draw neighbors together influence turnout. The results show neighborhood block parties are positively associated with individual-level voting. These mobilizing effects are particularly visible in African American neighborhoods. Taking advantage of the fact that some blocks request permits some years and not others, the data allow for time-variant tests, linking changes in the strength of neighborhood-based “weak ties” with increased turnout. This research suggests that casual interactions among neighborhood weak ties shape political engagement.
The Twitter Blackout: Do congressional rules influence the cyberworld?
Carlos Gutierrez-Mannix & Thomas Gray
Social Science Quarterly, forthcoming
Intro: Communication is understood to be a pillar of democracy. Therefore, governments around the world enact laws which make it easier for politicians to communicate with their constituents. However, some governments also restrict this ability during campaign seasons as a way of unclogging the media. In the United States, congressional election blackout dates are periods in which politicians are not allowed to engage in mass unsolicited mailing of political advertising. Because the prohibition only applies to unsolicited media, we theorize that we should see the transition from one type of communication to another.
Methods: To test this effect, we created a database containing all tweets by all Members of Congress from the last three Congresses.
Results: We find that immediately during the blackout periods, members of Congress substantially increase the number of tweets they post.