State of Survival
Chinese state media persuades a global audience that the “China model” is superior: Evidence from a 19-country experiment
Daniel Mattingly et al.
American Journal of Political Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
Many are skeptical of the appeal of authoritarian political systems. We argue that global audiences will embrace authoritarian models when they believe that autocracies can meet governance challenges better than democracies. We collect comprehensive data on the external messaging of the Chinese and American governments. We then conduct a randomized experiment in 19 countries across six continents exposing global citizens to real messages from the Chinese and American governments’ external media arms. We find that exposure to a representative set of Chinese messages strengthens perceptions that the Chinese Communist Party delivers growth, stability, and competent leadership. It also moves the average respondent from slightly preferring the American model to slightly preferring the Chinese model. In head-to-head matchups, messages from the US government are less persuasive. Our findings show how autocracies build global support by selling growth and competence, with important implications for democratic resilience.
Authoritarian Privacy
Mark Jia
University of Chicago Law Review, May 2024, Pages 733-809
Abstract:
Privacy laws are traditionally associated with democracy. Yet autocracies increasingly have them. Why do governments that repress their citizens also protect their privacy? This Article answers this question through a study of China. China is a leading autocracy and the architect of a massive surveillance state. But China is also a major player in data protection, having enacted and enforced a number of laws on information privacy. To explain how this came to be, the Article first discusses several top-down objectives often said to motivate China’s privacy laws: advancing its digital economy, expanding its global influence, and protecting its national security. Although each has been a factor in China’s turn to privacy law, even together, they tell only a partial story. Central to China’s privacy turn is the party-state’s use of privacy law to shore up its legitimacy amid rampant digital abuse. China’s whiplashed transition into the digital age has given rise to significant vulnerabilities and dependencies for ordinary citizens. Through privacy law, China’s leaders have sought to interpose themselves as benevolent guardians of privacy rights against other intrusive actors -- individuals, firms, and even state agencies and local governments. So framed, privacy law can enhance perceptions of state performance and potentially soften criticism of the center’s own intrusions. The party-state did not enact privacy law despite its surveillance state; it embraced privacy law to maintain it. This Article adds to our understanding of privacy law, complicates the relationship between privacy and democracy, and points toward a general theory of authoritarian privacy.
Democracy Corrupted: Apex Corruption and the Erosion of Democratic Values
Eduardo Rivera, Enrique Seira & Saumitra Jha
Stanford Working Paper, May 2024
Abstract:
Democratic values are eroding just as citizens perceive increasing corruption, with numerous cases implicating the highest-level politicians. Could perceived increases in apex corruption be weakening democracy? We first present event study analyses of more than 170 high-profile corruption scandals involving some of the most prominent politicians in 17 Latin American countries. We show that in the aftermath of such apex corruption scandals, support for democracy falls by 0.07sd, support for authoritarianism rises by 11% and violent protests rise by 70%. We complement these results with a field experiment in Mexico. Randomized exposure to footage of apex corruption scandals, particularly implicating politicians known for their anticorruption platforms, decreases individuals’ support for democracy by 0.15sd, willingness to trust politicians and neighbors in incentivized games by 18% and 11%, volunteering as election observers by 45%, and actual voter turnout by about 5pp, while raising stealing from local mayors by 4%. The undermining of democratic values produces latent effects that even cumulate four months later. Seeking solutions, priming national identity proved an unsuccessful antidote, but providing exposure to national stock index funds holds some promise.
Autocratization Spillover: When Electing an Authoritarian Erodes Election Trust across Borders
Ka Ming Chan
Public Opinion Quarterly, June 2024, Pages 828-842
Abstract:
The rich literature on election trust predominantly uses domestic determinants as explanatory factors. But given the international nature of the autocratization wave, can an autocratization event across borders erode election trust? This article argues that an authoritarian’s electoral success in a neighboring country can shatter democratic norms and demonstrate the viability of authoritarians. This autocratization event abroad can thus reduce citizens’ principled support for democracy and its political system. Consequently, citizens across borders are less likely to see democratic elections as the “only game in town” and they have less trust in elections. To test this idea, I study the spillover effects of the 2018 Brazilian presidential election, in which an authoritarian candidate won decisively. Using the AmericasBarometer in Colombia that was launched throughout this election, I find that the election trust of Colombian citizens erodes after Jair Bolsonaro’s electoral success. To probe into the mechanism, I uncover that his electoral victory leads Colombian citizens to be less supportive of the domestic political system and reduces their principled support for democracy. The causal mediation analysis demonstrates that these two variables mediate the effect of the authoritarian’s electoral success on election trust. These findings on autocratization spillover effects illustrate the importance of external autocratization events in the study of election trust.
A visa for a revolution? A theory of anti-authoritarian immigration policy
Carlo Horz & Jonghoon Lee
Journal of Theoretical Politics, July 2024, Pages 275-296
Abstract:
Sometimes, countries target immigration policies to citizens of authoritarian regimes with the goal of influencing these regimes’ politics. Which kinds of immigration rules are optimal anti-authoritarian policies and which trade-offs do policy-makers face? We analyze a game-theoretic model in which a destination country, an autocrat, and a citizen interact. The citizen can engage in protest and emigrate while the autocrat can redistribute and repress to counter these threats. A revolution occurs if the autocrat does not repress and the citizen protests. Policy-makers in destination countries anticipate that in equilibrium, a more permissive immigration policy reduces repression but also reduces protesting. Therefore, the optimal policy strikes a balance between these two effects. A concern for improving the citizen’s welfare renders policy more permissible while the desire to punish the autocrat has an ambiguous effect. Finally, we show that a revolution and large-scale emigration are difficult to achieve at the same time.
Communist propaganda and women’s status
Ruoyu Qian
Journal of Development Economics, October 2024
Abstract:
This paper examines how communist propaganda affects gender norms and behavior in China. Improving women’s status and promoting gender equality were significant themes of revolutionary propaganda in China from the 1950s to the 1970s. Exploiting plausibly exogenous variation resulting from topography, I find that exposure to radio broadcasts during the Cultural Revolution improved educational gender equality, and such effects were stronger in areas with weaker Confucian norms. Using individual-level census data, I also find positive effects of radio exposure on women’s family-related and career-related outcomes. I explore the possible mechanisms using data from two surveys on gender norms, and my evidence is consistent with rational updating. The significant persuasion effects disappear when more recent data are employed, implying temporary communist influences on entrenched social norms.