So Healthy
Heritability of intrinsic human life span is about 50% when confounding factors are addressed
Ben Shenhar et al.
Science, 29 January 2026, Pages 504-510
Abstract:
How heritable is human life span? If genetic heritability is high, longevity genes can reveal aging mechanisms and inform medicine and public health. However, current estimates of heritability are low -- twin studies show heritability of only 20 to 25%, and recent large pedigree studies suggest it is as low as 6%. Here we show that these estimates are confounded by extrinsic mortality -- deaths caused by extrinsic factors such as accidents or infections. We use mathematical modeling and analyses of twin cohorts raised together and apart to correct for this factor, revealing that heritability of human life span due to intrinsic mortality is above 50%. Such high heritability is similar to that of most other complex human traits and to life-span heritability in other species.
Cash Transfers Do Not Increase Traumatic Injury and Mortality: Evidence from Alaska
Ruby Steedle et al.
American Journal of Epidemiology, forthcoming
Abstract:
Direct cash transfers are an increasingly common tool to alleviate poverty, but critics argue that recipients will use this cash in irresponsible and potentially dangerous ways. To investigate the impact of cash payments on traumatic injury and death, we turn to Alaska's long-standing statewide cash transfer, the Permanent Fund Dividend. Nearly every Alaskan receives a substantial amount of money (average $1,500 per person) on a single day in the fall of each year. Using interrupted time series analyses paired with 2009-2019 data on all traumatic injuries (N = 36,556) seen at Alaska hospitals from the state's trauma registry and all deaths (N = 43,170) from vital records, we examine whether the payment causes an increase in traumatic injury and mortality in the days following disbursement. Despite commonly held fears, we find no such increases in our data across multiple specifications. These results provide no evidence to suggest that direct cash payments increase the risk of injury or death.
Marijuana Legalization and Suicides Among Older Adults
Sara Markowitz & Katie Leinenbach
NBER Working Paper, November 2025
Abstract:
Suicide rates among older adults have been rising over time in the United States. At the same time, more individuals have been suffering with chronic pain and illness, which are often underlying risk factors for suicide. As self-medication with marijuana has become common, we ask whether access to legal marijuana for medical and recreational purposes reduces suicides rates among older individuals. We find that suicide rates among older age groups decline following the opening of recreational marijuana dispensaries, especially among older Whites, and middle-aged White males and females with low levels of education.
Acute Effects of Cannabis on Alcohol Craving and Consumption: A Randomized Controlled Crossover Trial
Jane Metrik et al.
American Journal of Psychiatry, February 2026, Pages 134-143
Methods: Across three experimental days, 157 participants reporting heavy alcohol use and cannabis use two or more times weekly were randomized to smoke cannabis cigarettes containing 7.2% THC, 3.1% THC, or 0.03% THC (placebo), followed by exposures to neutral and personalized alcohol cues and an alcohol choice task for alcohol self-administration. A total of 138 participants completed two or more experimental sessions (mean age, 25.6 years [SD=5.1]; 35% women; 45% racial/ethnic minorities). Primary outcomes included craving, Alcohol Craving Questionnaire-Short Form, Revised (ACQ-SF-R), and an alcohol urge question; the secondary outcome was percent of total available milliliters of alcohol consumed.
Results: There were no significant effects of cannabis on ACQ-SF-R ratings after smoking and during alcohol cue exposure, but 7.2% THC reduced alcohol urge immediately after smoking. Participants consumed significantly less alcohol after smoking cannabis with 3.1% THC and 7.2% THC, reducing consumption by 19% and 27%, respectively.
Are E-Cigarette Taxes Losing their Bite?
Dhaval Dave et al.
NBER Working Paper, December 2025
Abstract:
The rise in nicotine vaping among U.S. teenagers in the late 2010s prompted tobacco control advocates to press for higher electronic nicotine delivery system (ENDS) taxes to curb their use. This study is the first to explore how the effectiveness of e-cigarette taxation as an anti-vaping policy tool has evolved over time. Using data from several nationally representative data sources and a generalized difference-in-differences approach, we find that since 2020, the effectiveness of a one dollar increase in ENDS taxes in curbing youth nicotine vaping has declined by over 50 percent. This finding is consistent with the marginal youth vaper becoming more tax inelastic over time. Descriptive evidence shows that the composition of youth ENDS users appears to have shifted toward those with a higher addictive stock and a greater taste for risk, which could make youths less tax responsive. For adults, where nicotine vaping rates are stable or slightly rising and compositional shifts are somewhat less pronounced, we find much less evidence that ENDS tax effectiveness has changed over time.
The Effect of Online Sales Bans on E-Cigarette Use
Ege Aksu et al.
NBER Working Paper, December 2025
Abstract:
Policymakers at the state and federal levels have argued that restricting online sales of e-cigarettes is a crucial policy tool to curb youth vaping. This study is the first to explore the effectiveness of statewide restrictions on online sales of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) on teen and young adult ENDS use. Using data from four national datasets (Monitoring the Future, State and Combined Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System surveys, Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health, and Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey) and a generalized difference-in-differences approach, we find no evidence that such laws are effective at curbing youth ENDS use. With 95 percent confidence, we can rule out that online sales restrictions reduced prior-month ENDS use by more than 3.6 percent of the pre-treatment mean vaping rate. An exploration of mechanisms suggests that (1) while restrictions on online sales may have a small negative effect on online purchases, youths are able to substitute to other sources for ENDS products to compensate for reduced online access, and (2) online sources are a very rare source of e-cigarettes for youths. Finally, we also find no evidence that online sales restrictions reduce adult ENDS use.
Investigating the Impact of Advertising on Smoking Cessation: The Role of Direct-to-Consumer Prescription Drug Advertising
Erfan Loghmani & Ali Goli
Marketing Science, January-February 2026, Pages 159-174
Abstract:
Access barriers to products and the availability of over-the-counter substitutes critically shape how advertising affects consumer choices in healthcare markets, yet these relationships remain understudied. We examine this phenomenon in the smoking cessation market, where prescription and over-the-counter options coexist with varying efficacy and access barriers. Analyzing data on prescription records, retail sales, and advertising exposure, we estimate both own- and cross-advertising elasticities across multiple product categories including prescription drugs, over-the-counter nicotine replacement therapies (NRTs), e-cigarettes, and traditional cigarettes. We find that prescription drug advertising reduces cigarette consumption whereas nicotine replacement therapy advertising does not. This difference occurs because prescription advertising expands demand across prescription cessation medications, whereas nicotine replacement advertising diverts consumers from more effective prescription options. Insurance coverage significantly moderates these elasticities: where coverage is limited, prescription advertising leads to greater spillovers toward over-the-counter substitutes. Despite these spillovers, prescription drug advertising yields a meaningful reduction in cigarette consumption and net nicotine intake. These findings demonstrate that obtaining a complete picture of advertising's impact on public health outcomes requires accounting for both cross-category effects and institutional constraints in healthcare markets.
From Treatment to Safety: The Role of Substance Use Treatment in Preventing Intimate Partner Violence
Mevlude Akbulut-Yuksel et al.
NBER Working Paper, January 2026
Abstract:
Substance use is a well-established driver of intimate partner violence (IPV), with drug-related incidents posing persistent challenges for both public health and criminal justice systems. We examine how expanding access to substance use treatment (SUT) services affects IPV in the United States by leveraging variation in the opening and closing of treatment facilities at the county level. Using administrative data on IPV incidents from the National Incident-Based Reporting System at the agency level from 1998 to 2019 combined with county-level records on treatment facility information, we implement a continuous difference-in-differences research design. Our results show that adding three SUT facilities -- the average annual increase per county over the sample period -- reduces drug-involved IPV by about 1.5-1.7 percent. We find no evidence of significant effects on alcohol-related or non-substance-related IPV. Staggered event-study analyses confirm parallel outcome trends, across treated and non-treated counties, prior to net facility openings and lend support to a causal interpretation of the estimates. Related evidence from SUT admissions drawn from the Treatment Episode Data Set (TEDS) shows that new centers significantly raise treatment entry, particularly among men, consistent with reduced perpetration driving the observed decline in IPV exposure. Our findings highlight the role of health services infrastructure in shaping violence-related outcomes and underscore the broader public safety benefits of investment in treatment access.
Prohibition and Percolation: The Roaring Success of Coffee During US Alcohol Prohibition
Zachary Bartsch
Southern Economic Journal, January 2026, Pages 788-808
Abstract:
During US alcohol prohibition, 1920 to 1933, alcohol consumption fell dramatically. Less well known is that coffee consumption surged as a legal alternative. Using import data and a variety of textual data, I examine prohibition's impact on demand for coffee and the supply-side response to the new policy environment. Using the Bai-Perron method of identifying structural breaks and a structural vector autoregression model, this study finds elevated coffee imports during prohibition and immediately after enactment. Evidence from other commodities, shipwrecks, and causal inference using local newspapers indicates that the conclusion of World War I cannot explain sustained greater coffee consumption during prohibition. The results exemplify the role of legal substitutes to prohibited goods, how policy regimes distort consumption patterns, and how industries respond.