Presidential Selection
Balancing, Generic Polls and Midterm Congressional Elections
Joseph Bafumi, Robert Erikson & Christopher Wlezien
Journal of Politics, July 2010, Pages 705-719
Abstract:
One mystery of U.S. politics is why the president's party regularly loses congressional seats at midterm. Although presidential coattails and their withdrawal provide a partial explanation, coattails cannot account for the fact that the presidential party typically performs worse than normal at midterm. This paper addresses the midterm vote separate from the presidential year vote, with evidence from generic congressional polls conducted during midterm election years. Polls early in the midterm year project a normal vote result in November. But as the campaign progresses, vote preferences almost always move toward the out party. This shift is not a negative referendum on the president, as midterms do not show a pattern of declining presidential popularity or increasing salience of presidential performance. The shift accords with "balance" theory, where the midterm campaign motivates some to vote against the party of the president in order to achieve policy moderation.
-----------------------
Managing Monikers: The Role of Name Presentation in the 2008 Presidential Election
Ray Block & Chinonye Onwunli
Presidential Studies Quarterly, September 2010, Pages 464-481
Abstract:
Given America's widespread contempt for Islamic extremists, Obama's Muslim-sounding moniker could have cost him electoral support. Consequently, anecdotal evidence suggests that Obama played a "name game" in which he deflected suspicions about his religious background by avoiding use of his middle name (Hussein) and minimizing the frequency with which his opponents used it. Did the presentation of Obama's name affect how voters evaluated him? Results from a web-based experiment suggest that the answer varies by political orientation. Among Republicans and conservatives, Obama's favorability ratings are generally lower when his middle name is present. Name presentation had little effect on Democrats and liberals, and moderates and independents rated the president more favorably when his middle name appeared. Regardless of party identification or political ideology, name presentation had no effect on the probability of voting for Obama.
-----------------------
Ready to Lead on Day One: Predicting Presidential Greatness from Political Experience
John Balz
PS: Political Science & Politics, July 2010, Pages 487-492
Abstract:
Presidential candidates frequently tout their political experience on the campaign trail, telling voters that it has prepared them to deal with complex problems, make weighty decisions, and show leadership. The value of that argument was put to the test in the 2008 presidential campaign by Hillary Clinton against her opponent, Barack Obama. This paper uses a multilevel model to analyze the value of national and state political experience on overall presidential greatness, as judged by seven surveys of academic experts. Overall, there is no evidence that political experience improves the likelihood of strong presidential performance, and even some weak evidence that political experience in certain political positions, most notably mayor and member of Congress, leads to poorer performance. In the end, great presidents are not great simply because they have spent their lives in politics and learned important lessons. Other personal and historical factors are likely to be more important.
-----------------------
Prospective and Retrospective Evaluations and The Dynamics of Vote Choice in 2008
Roy Elis, Sunshine Hillygus & Norman Nie
Electoral Studies, forthcoming
Abstract:
In this paper, we leverage a 10-wave election panel to examine the relative and dynamic effects of voter evaluations of Bush, Palin, Biden, McCain, and Obama in the 2008 presidential election. Critically, we show that the effects of these political figures on vote choice evolves through the campaign, with the predictive effects of President Bush declining after the nominees are known, and the effects of the candidates (and Palin), increasing towards Election Day. In evaluating the relative effects of these political figures on individual-level changes in vote choice during the fall campaign, we also find that evaluations of the candidates and Sarah Palin dwarf that of President Bush. Our results suggest a Bayesian model of voter decision making in which retrospective evaluations of the previous administration might provide a starting point for assessing the candidates, but prospective evaluations based on information learned during the campaign helps voters to update their candidate preference. Finally, we estimate the "Palin effect," based on individual-level changes in favorability towards the vice-presidential nominee, and conclude that her campaign performance cost McCain just under 2% of the final vote share.
-----------------------
Richard Johnston, Emily Thorson & Andrew Gooch
Journal of Elections, Public Opinion & Parties, May 2010, Pages 271-289
Abstract:
This paper considers the impact of economic perceptions on vote intention in the 2008 presidential campaign with data from the two components of the National Annenberg Election Survey. It addresses a controversy over whether the collapse of Lehman Brothers and its aftermath altered the terms of competition, and produced the late-campaign widening of Barack Obama's lead and his comfortable victory. Detailed attention to the chronology of the campaign, made possible by the structure of NAES data collection, indicates that the timing of key shifts is inconsistent with a simple economic interpretation of vote-intention dynamics. Multivariate analyses indicate that the economy-vote link weakened at the critical point.
-----------------------
State political culture and support for Obama in the 2008 Democratic presidential primaries
Patrick Fisher
Social Science Journal, forthcoming
Abstract:
Though ideologically similar, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton appealed to different types of voters in the 2008 Democratic presidential primaries and demographically the candidates' support varied considerably. Relative to the demographics of the primary electorates, however, we find that state political culture played an outsized role in determining which candidate emerged victorious in a particular state. When the size of demographic groups in the 2008 Democratic primaries are utilized in ordinary least squares regression models as independent variables with state political characteristics and Daniel Elazar's state political culture typology, political culture proves to be an important determinant of the level of support given to Obama in a state. States that are characterized by a more moralistic political culture are more likely to have given Obama a greater share of the primary vote and states that are characterized by a more traditionalistic or individualistic culture were less likely to support Obama in the 2008 Democratic primaries.
-----------------------
The Politics of Hope and Despair: The Effect of Presidential Election Outcomes on Suicide Rates
Timothy Classen & Richard Dunn
Social Science Quarterly, September 2010, Pages 593-612
Objectives: This article examines the effect of election outcomes on suicide rates by combining the theory of social integration developed by Durkheim with the models of rational choice used in economics.
Methods: Theory predicts that states with a greater percentage of residents who supported the losing candidate would tend to exhibit a relative increase in suicide rates. However, being around others who also supported the losing candidate may indicate a greater degree of social integration at the local level, thereby lowering relative suicide rates. We therefore use fixed-effects regression of state suicide rates from 1981 to 2005 on state election outcomes during presidential elections to determine which effect is stronger.
Results: We find that the local effect of social integration is dominant. The suicide rate when a state supports the losing candidate will tend to be lower than if the state had supported the winning candidate - 4.6 percent lower for males and 5.3 percent lower for females.
Conclusion: Social integration works at many levels; it not only affects suicide risk directly, but can mediate other shocks that influence suicide risk.
-----------------------
Obama on the Stump: Features and Determinants of a Rhetorical Approach
Kevin Coe & Michael Reitzes
Presidential Studies Quarterly, September 2010, Pages 391-413
Abstract:
From the moment Barack Obama entered the national political scene in 2004, his formidable rhetorical skills were a central component of his public persona and his political success. Not surprisingly, a growing body of research has examined Obama's rhetorical techniques. Thus far, however, these studies have consisted almost entirely of qualitative analyses of single speeches, making it difficult to generalize about the broader features of Obama's rhetorical approach and impossible to understand the determinants of his rhetorical choices. This study fills these gaps in the literature by systematically tracking Obama's rhetoric over the course of campaign 2008 and testing competing explanations for the variation that occurs during this period. Using a unique computer-assisted content analysis procedure that draws coding categories directly from the more than 11,500 distinct words that Obama used during his campaign, the authors analyze 183 speeches and debates from his announcement of candidacy in February 2007 to his victory speech in November 2008. Obama's campaign rhetoric varied by speaking context, geography, and poll position, indicating a twofold rhetorical approach of emphasizing policy and thematic appeals while downplaying more contentious issues.
-----------------------
Joshua Gunn
Rhetoric & Public Affairs, Summer 2010, Pages 175-215
Abstract:
This essay argues for a reprivileging of the object of speech in the study of public address. To this end, public discourse concerning the tonal qualities of male and female speech, particularly in moments of affective transgression, is examined to better discern our deeply gendered, cultural norms of eloquence. The primary case study analyzes reactions to the oratory of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton to show how their respective vocal tones played a significant role in the 2008 presidential election.
-----------------------
"Sour Grapes" or Rational Voting? Voter Decision Making Among Thwarted Primary Voters in 2008
Michael Henderson, Sunshine Hillygus & Trevor Tompson
Public Opinion Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
During the 2008 presidential campaign, journalists and pundits debated the electoral consequences of the prolonged and hard-fought nomination contest between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Previous research, typically using aggregate vote returns, has concluded that divisive primaries negatively impact the electoral prospects of the winning candidate. It is thought that supporters of the losing candidate are less likely to vote and more likely to defect because of psychological disaffection, or "sour grapes." Using a new panel dataset that traces individual candidate preferences during the primary and general election campaigns, we are able to explicitly examine individual-level decision making in the general election conditioned on voting behavior in the primary. Although "sour grapes" had a modest effect on eventual support for the party nominee, fundamental political considerations - especially attitudes on the War in Iraq - were far better predictors of the vote decision among thwarted voters. Moreover, we find that supporters of losing Democratic candidates were far more likely to vote for Obama if they lived in a battleground state.
-----------------------
The Effects of Candidate Age in the 2008 Presidential Election
Kate Kenski & Kathleen Hall Jamieson
Presidential Studies Quarterly, September 2010, Pages 449-463
Abstract:
Using data from the 2008 National Annenberg Election Survey (NAES), this study finds that during the general election, adults in the United States were more likely to report that John McCain, who was 71 during the 2008 primaries and 72 in the general election, was "too old to be president" than to report that Barack Obama was "too young to be president." The percentage of the population subscribing to these views was not a constant in the general election. Instead, the belief that McCain was "too old to be president" increased across the campaign period, while the belief that Obama was "too young to be president" declined. Throughout the general election, major party identifiers were more likely to believe that the other major party candidate's age was a liability. Newspaper consumption and Internet use were positively associated with perceptions of McCain being "too old to be president," even when controlling for demographic and political ideological factors. Perceptions about candidate age were significantly associated with candidate evaluations and vote preference even after controls were factored in.
-----------------------
Creating Better Heuristics for the Presidential Primary: The Citizen Assembly
Heather Gerken & Douglas Rand
Political Science Quarterly, Summer 2010, Pages 233-253
Abstract:
Heather K. Gerken and Douglas B. Rand propose creating citizen assemblies to vet presidential hopefuls in order to give low-information voters a useful heuristic for casting their votes. Their conceptual claim is that citizen assemblies should be of interest to the vast swaths of political science preoccupied with making representative democracy work. By shearing away the deliberative baggage that has long accompanied proposals like this one, the authors highlight the role that citizen assemblies can play in helping low-information voters make sensible choices.
-----------------------
Unified Government, Bill Approval, and the Legislative Weight of the President
Eduardo Alemán & Ernesto Calvo
Comparative Political Studies, April 2010, Pages 511-534
Abstract:
This article proposes a new approach to measuring the legislative weight of the president and Congress based on the approval of each actor's legislative agenda. The authors focus on presidential systems where presidents possess both formal authority to introduce their own bills and a variety of prerogatives to influence the passage of legislation. The authors argue that the legislative weight of the president varies over time in response to contextual political variables. After devising a general model to measure changes in the legislative weight of the president vis-à-vis Congress, the authors empirically test their propositions using data from Argentina. The results indicate that the policy and productivity weights of the president actually increase in the absence of unified government.