Power Play
The Economic Impacts of Clean Power
Costas Arkolakis & Conor Walsh
NBER Working Paper, October 2024
Abstract:
In this paper we assess the economic impacts of moving to a renewable-dominated grid in the US. We use projections of capital costs to develop price bounds on future wholesale power prices at the local geographic level. We then use a class of spatial general equilibrium models to estimate the effect on wages and output of prices falling below these bounds in the medium term. Power prices fall anywhere between 20% and 80%, depending on local solar resources, leading to an aggregate real wage gain of 2-3%. Over the longer term, we show how moving to clean power represents a qualitative change in the aggregate growth process, alleviating the “resource drag” that has slowed recent productivity growth in the US.
Feasible deployment of carbon capture and storage and the requirements of climate targets
Tsimafei Kazlou, Aleh Cherp & Jessica Jewell
Nature Climate Change, October 2024, Pages 1047–1055
Abstract:
Climate change mitigation requires the large-scale deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS). Recent plans indicate an eight-fold increase in CCS capacity by 2030, yet the feasibility of CCS expansion is debated. Using historical growth of CCS and other policy-driven technologies, we show that if plans double between 2023 and 2025 and their failure rates decrease by half, CCS could reach 0.37 GtCO2 yr−1 by 2030 -- lower than most 1.5 °C pathways but higher than most 2 °C pathways. Staying on-track to 2 °C would require that in 2030–2040 CCS accelerates at least as fast as wind power did in the 2000s, and that after 2040, it grows faster than nuclear power did in the 1970s to 1980s. Only 10% of mitigation pathways meet these feasibility constraints, and virtually all of them depict <600 GtCO2 captured and stored by 2100. Relaxing the constraints by assuming no failures of CCS plans and growth as fast as flue-gas desulfurization would approximately double this amount.
Unexpected anthropogenic emission decreases explain recent atmospheric mercury concentration declines
Aryeh Feinberg et al.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 15 October 2024
Abstract:
Anthropogenic activities emit ~2,000 Mg y−1 of the toxic pollutant mercury (Hg) into the atmosphere, leading to long-range transport and deposition to remote ecosystems. Global anthropogenic emission inventories report increases in Northern Hemispheric (NH) Hg emissions during the last three decades, in contradiction with the observed decline in atmospheric Hg concentrations at NH measurement stations. Many factors can obscure the link between anthropogenic emissions and atmospheric Hg concentrations, including trends in the reemissions of previously released anthropogenic (“legacy”) Hg, atmospheric sink variability, and spatial heterogeneity of monitoring data. Here, we assess the observed trends in gaseous elemental mercury (Hg0) in the NH and apply biogeochemical box modeling and chemical transport modeling to understand the trend drivers. Using linear mixed effects modeling of observational data from 51 stations, we find negative Hg0 trends in most NH regions, with an overall trend for 2005 to 2020 of −0.011 ± 0.006 ng m−3 y−1 (±2 SD). In contrast to existing emission inventories, our modeling analysis suggests that annual NH anthropogenic emissions must have declined by at least 140 Mg between the years 2005 and 2020 to be consistent with observed trends. Faster declines in 95th percentile Hg0 values than median values in Europe, North America, and East Asian measurement stations corroborate that the likely cause is a decline in nearby anthropogenic emissions rather than background legacy reemissions. Our results are relevant for evaluating the effectiveness of the Minamata Convention on Mercury, demonstrating that existing emission inventories are incompatible with the observed Hg0 declines.
Mortality caused by tropical cyclones in the United States
Rachel Young & Solomon Hsiang
Nature, forthcoming
Abstract:
Natural disasters trigger complex chains of events within human societies. Immediate deaths and damage are directly observed after a disaster and are widely studied, but delayed downstream outcomes, indirectly caused by the disaster, are difficult to trace back to the initial event. Tropical cyclones (TCs) -- that is, hurricanes and tropical storms -- are widespread globally and have lasting economic impacts, but their full health impact remains unknown. Here we conduct a large-scale evaluation of long-term effects of TCs on human mortality in the contiguous United States (CONUS) for all TCs between 1930 and 2015. We observe a robust increase in excess mortality that persists for 15 years after each geophysical event. We estimate that the average TC generates 7,000–11,000 excess deaths, exceeding the average of 24 immediate deaths reported in government statistics. Tracking the effects of 501 historical storms, we compute that the TC climate of CONUS imposes an undocumented mortality burden that explains a substantial fraction of the higher mortality rates along the Atlantic coast and is equal to roughly 3.2–5.1% of all deaths. These findings suggest that the TC climate, previously thought to be unimportant for broader public health outcomes, is a meaningful underlying driver for the distribution of mortality risk in CONUS, especially among infants (less than 1 year of age), people 1–44 years of age, and the Black population. Understanding why TCs induce this excess mortality is likely to yield substantial health benefits.
Severe Weather and the Macroeconomy
Hee Soo Kim, Christian Matthes & Toàn Phan
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, forthcoming
Abstract:
We investigate the impact of severe weather shocks on the US macroeconomy over the past sixty years. Using a nonlinear vector autoregressive model, we find robust evidence of time-varying effects. While negligible at the beginning of the sample, the impact becomes significant at the end, where an increase in the severe weather index reduces aggregate industrial production and consumption growth rates, and raises aggregate unemployment and inflation rates. The effects are persistent for up to twenty months. Our findings suggest limited adaptation to the increased severity of weather in the United States, at least at the macroeconomic level.
Unintended consequences of using maps to communicate sea-level rise
Matto Mildenberger et al.
Nature Sustainability, August 2024, Pages 1018–1026
Abstract:
Sea-level rise caused by climate change poses enormous social and economic costs, yet governments and coastal residents are still not taking the mitigation and adaptation steps necessary to protect their communities and property. In response, advocates have attempted to raise threat salience by disseminating maps of projected sea-level rise. We test the efficacy of this ubiquitous communication tool using two high spatial-resolution survey experiments (n = 1,243). Our first experiment, in US coastal communities across four US states, exposes households on either side of projected sea-level rise boundaries to individually tailored risk maps. We find this common risk communication approach has the unintended consequence of reducing concern about future sea-level rise, even among households projected to experience flooding this century. In a second experiment on our sample (n = 737) of San Francisco Bay Area coastal residents, direct communications about impacts on traffic patterns does increase concern about future climate impacts. Map-based risk information increases support for collective spending on climate adaptation, but it does not increase individual intentions to contribute. Our results demonstrate the importance of empirically testing messaging campaigns for climate adaptation.
Polluted Job Search: The Impact of Poor Air Quality on Reservation Wages
Mariët Bogaard et al.
Maastricht University Working Paper, October 2024
Abstract:
This paper investigates the impact of air pollution on reservation wages. We use rich survey data on unemployed job seekers in Germany and exploit variation in individual exposure to fine particulate matter (PM10) based on the quasi-random allocation of interview slots to individuals. Our results show that an increase in PM10 by one standard deviation (corresponding to 12 μg/m3) reduces the reservation wage by approximately 1.2%. We further provide evidence that PM10 pollution decreases job seekers' search effort, risk tolerance and patience, which serve as potential mechanisms through which PM10 exposure negatively affects the reservation wage of unemployed job seekers.
Necessity or Luxury? Air Conditioning and Support for Utility Assistance in the Context of Climate Change
Evan Stewart
Socius: Sociological Research for a Dynamic World, September 2024
Abstract:
Studies of climate attitudes are increasingly concerned with support for mitigation policies such as adequate indoor cooling to address heat exposure. Air conditioning has historically been marketed as a luxury good, but polling shows Americans are evenly split in whether they consider it a necessity or a luxury. Do they support utility aid programs that would increase access to air conditioning? Results from an original survey vignette experiment (N = 1,200) show respondents are less likely to support government aid to help low-income people pay utility bills when policy frames invoke air conditioning rather than heat. A replication (N = 703) finds this effect is most pronounced among White respondents. These findings have important implications for research and policy advocacy because they demonstrate a potential obstacle for public support in addressing the negative impacts of extreme heat in climate change.
3775-year-old wood burial supports “wood vaulting” as a durable carbon removal method
Ning Zeng et al.
Science, 27 September 2024, Pages 1454-1459
Abstract:
Six-times more carbon dioxide (CO2) is removed each year by terrestrial photosynthesis than fossil fuel emissions. However, the carbon is mostly returned to the atmosphere by decomposition. We found a 3775-year-old ancient wood log buried 2 meters belowground that was preserved far beyond its expected lifetime. The wood had near-perfect preservation, with carbon loss less than 5% compared to a modern sample. The lack of decay is likely due to the low permeability of the compact clay soil at the burial site. Our observation suggests a hybrid nature-engineering approach for carbon removal by burying woody biomass in similar anoxic environments. We estimate a global sequestration potential of up to 10 gigatonnes CO2 per year with existing technology at a low cost of $30 to $100 per tonne after optimization.
Overconfidence in climate overshoot
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner et al.
Nature, 10 October 2024, Pages 366–373
Abstract:
Global emission reduction efforts continue to be insufficient to meet the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement. This makes the systematic exploration of so-called overshoot pathways that temporarily exceed a targeted global warming limit before drawing temperatures back down to safer levels a priority for science and policy. Here we show that global and regional climate change and associated risks after an overshoot are different from a world that avoids it. We find that achieving declining global temperatures can limit long-term climate risks compared with a mere stabilization of global warming, including for sea-level rise and cryosphere changes. However, the possibility that global warming could be reversed many decades into the future might be of limited relevance for adaptation planning today. Temperature reversal could be undercut by strong Earth-system feedbacks resulting in high near-term and continuous long-term warming. To hedge and protect against high-risk outcomes, we identify the geophysical need for a preventive carbon dioxide removal capacity of several hundred gigatonnes. Yet, technical, economic and sustainability considerations may limit the realization of carbon dioxide removal deployment at such scales. Therefore, we cannot be confident that temperature decline after overshoot is achievable within the timescales expected today. Only rapid near-term emission reductions are effective in reducing climate risks.
Increasing frequency and intensity of the most extreme wildfires on Earth
Calum Cunningham, Grant Williamson & David Bowman
Nature Ecology & Evolution, August 2024, Pages 1420–1425
Abstract:
Climate change is exacerbating wildfire conditions, but evidence is lacking for global trends in extreme fire activity itself. Here we identify energetically extreme wildfire events by calculating daily clusters of summed fire radiative power using 21 years of satellite data, revealing that the frequency of extreme events (≥99.99th percentile) increased by 2.2-fold from 2003 to 2023, with the last 7 years including the 6 most extreme. Although the total area burned on Earth may be declining, our study highlights that fire behaviour is worsening in several regions -- particularly the boreal and temperate conifer biomes -- with substantial implications for carbon storage and human exposure to wildfire disasters.