Out of Subsistence
Speed of convergence in a Malthusian world: Weak or strong homeostasis?
Arnaud Deseau
Explorations in Economic History, forthcoming
Abstract:
The Malthusian trap is a well recognized source of stagnation in per capita income prior to industrialization. However, previous studies have found mixed evidence about its exact strength. This article contributes to this ongoing debate by estimating the speed of convergence for a panel of 9 preindustrial European economies over a long period of time (14th-18th century). The analysis relies on a calibrated Malthusian model for England and beta-convergence regressions. I find evidence of significant differences in the strength of the Malthusian trap between preindustrial European economies. The strongest estimated Malthusian trap is in Sweden, with a half-life of 20 years. The weakest estimated Malthusian trap is in England, with a half-life of about 230 years. This implies that some preindustrial economies were able to experience prolonged variations in their standards of living after a shock, while still being subject to Malthusian stagnation in the long run.
Soil Fertility Depletion is not a Credible Mechanism for Population Boom/Bust Cycles in Early Agricultural Societies
Daniel Kondor & Peter Turchin
Human Ecology, August 2024, Pages 731-741
Abstract:
Soil fertility depletion presents a negative feedback mechanism that could have impacted early adopters of agriculture. We consider whether such feedback can lead to population cycles among early agriculturalists, such as the boom-and-bust patterns suggested by an increasing amount of evidence for Neolithic Europe. Using general mathematical arguments, we show that this is unlikely, due to the interplay of two factors. First, there is an important mathematical difference between biotic (i.e., logistic) and abiotic resource replenishment; soil nutrients are better modeled by the abiotic case, which leads to more stable dynamics. Second, under realistic conditions, the resource replenishment process operates on fast time scales compared to attainable population growth rates, reinforcing the tendency towards stable dynamics. Both these factors are relevant for early agricultural societies and imply that nutrient depletion is likely not the main contributing factor to boom-and-bust cycles observed in the archaeological record.
The rise and transformation of Bronze Age pastoralists in the Caucasus
Ayshin Ghalichi et al.
Nature, forthcoming
Abstract:
The Caucasus and surrounding areas, with their rich metal resources, became a crucible of the Bronze Age and the birthplace of the earliest steppe pastoralist societies. Yet, despite this region having a large influence on the subsequent development of Europe and Asia, questions remain regarding its hunter-gatherer past and its formation of expansionist mobile steppe societies. Here we present new genome-wide data for 131 individuals from 38 archaeological sites spanning 6,000 years. We find a strong genetic differentiation between populations north and south of the Caucasus mountains during the Mesolithic, with Eastern hunter-gatherer ancestry in the north, and a distinct Caucasus hunter-gatherer ancestry with increasing East Anatolian farmer admixture in the south. During the subsequent Eneolithic period, we observe the formation of the characteristic West Eurasian steppe ancestry and heightened interaction between the mountain and steppe regions, facilitated by technological developments of the Maykop cultural complex. By contrast, the peak of pastoralist activities and territorial expansions during the Early and Middle Bronze Age is characterized by long-term genetic stability. The Late Bronze Age marks another period of gene flow from multiple distinct sources that coincides with a decline of steppe cultures, followed by a transformation and absorption of the steppe ancestry into highland populations.
Children at play: The role of novices in the production of Europe's earliest Upper Paleolithic ceramics
Rebecca Farbstein & April Nowell
PLoS ONE, October 2024
Abstract:
Although archaeologists are learning more about the lives of Upper Paleolithic children, the significant contributions they made to the welfare of their communities, including their role in craft production, remain understudied. In the present study, we use high resolution photographs of 489 ceramic artifacts from Dolní Věstonice I and II, Pavlov I and VI, and Předmostí, five archaeological sites in Czechia (ca. 30,000 BP) to address two questions: 1. Can the ceramic products of novices be distinguished from those made by experts? 2. If so, can we tell if these novices were children? To address these questions, we documented variables known ethnographically and archaeologically to be associated with learners in a sample from these five sites. The sample is composed of fired ("ceramic") and unfired ("sedimentary") anthropomorphic and zoomorphic figurines, non-diagnostic figurine fragments and a sample of the so-called "pellets" from one site, Pavlov I. Our results support the hypothesis that ceramic objects are the products of novices, and in many cases, these novices are children. Our findings have implications for inter-generational knowledge transmission, the role of children in craft production and the importance of learning through play.
The genomic natural history of the aurochs
Conor Rossi et al.
Nature, forthcoming
Abstract:
Now extinct, the aurochs (Bos primigenius) was a keystone species in prehistoric Eurasian and North African ecosystems, and the progenitor of cattle (Bos taurus), domesticates that have provided people with food and labour for millennia. Here we analysed 38 ancient genomes and found 4 distinct population ancestries in the aurochs -- European, Southwest Asian, North Asian and South Asian -- each of which has dynamic trajectories that have responded to changes in climate and human influence. Similarly to Homo heidelbergensis, aurochsen first entered Europe around 650 thousand years ago, but early populations left only trace ancestry, with both North Asian and European B. primigenius genomes coalescing during the most recent glaciation. North Asian and European populations then appear separated until mixing after the climate amelioration of the early Holocene. European aurochsen endured the more severe bottleneck during the Last Glacial Maximum, retreating to southern refugia before recolonizing from Iberia. Domestication involved the capture of a small number of individuals from the Southwest Asian aurochs population, followed by early and pervasive male-mediated admixture involving each ancestral strain of aurochs after domestic stocks dispersed beyond their cradle of origin.