Old Society
Floods, droughts, and environmental circumscription in early state development: The case of ancient Egypt
Laura Mayoral & Ola Olsson
Journal of Economic Growth, June 2025, Pages 271-305
Abstract:
What explains the origins and survival of the first states around 5000 years ago? In this research, we focus on the role of weather-related productivity shocks for early state development in ancient Egypt. We present a framework of extractive state consolidation predicting that political stability should be high whenever environmental circumscription is high, i.e., whenever there is a large gap between the productivity of the area under state control (core) and that of the surrounding areas (hinterland). In such periods, the elite can impose high levels of taxation that the population will be forced to accept as exit to the hinterland is not a feasible option. In order to test this hypothesis, we develop novel proxies for both the historical productivity of the Nile banks and of the Egyptian hinterland on the basis of high-resolution paleoclimate archives. Our empirical analysis then investigates the relationship between these proxies for environmental circumscription and political outcomes such as ruler and dynastic tenure durations, the area under state control and pyramid construction during 2685–1140 BCE. Our results show that while extreme Nile floods are associated with a greater degree of political instability, periods with a greater rainfall in the hinterland (i.e., a lower effective environmental circumscription) causes a decline in state capacity and a delayed increase in political instability.
Ancient DNA reveals a two-clanned matrilineal community in Neolithic China
Jincheng Wang et al.
Nature, forthcoming
Abstract:
Studies of ancient DNA from cemeteries provide valuable insights into early human societies, and have strongly indicated patrilocality. Here, we analysed ancient DNA alongside archaeological contexts and multiple stable isotopic data from 60 individuals in 2 separate cemeteries at the Fujia archaeological site in eastern China, dating between 2750 and 2500 BCE. Our findings suggest the existence of an early-described matrilineal community in the Neolithic period, characterized by high endogamy and a population practicing millet agriculture near the coast. Evidence of intermarriage between individuals in the two cemeteries and the presence of both primary and secondary burials, organized strictly according to maternal clans, underscore a strong sense of social cohesion and identity at Fujia. Bayesian modelling of radiocarbon dates indicates that the two cemeteries were used for approximately 250 years, implying a stable matrilineal lineage spanning at least 10 generations. This study contributes to the ongoing debate in anthropology and archaeology, not only suggesting the existence of a matrilineal society in early human history but also revealing a pair of Neolithic cemeteries organized around two matrilineal clans, furthering our understanding of the early evolution of human societies through kinship systems.
Famine, Social Disorder, and the Writing Down of Buddhist Scripture: Did the Eruption of Alaska’s Okmok Volcano Affect Sri Lanka in the First Century B.C.E.?
James Flynn
Journal of Interdisciplinary History, Spring 2025, Pages 457-483
Abstract:
In 43 B.C.E., the eruption of Mt. Okmok in Alaska filled the atmosphere with volcanic fallout, blocking sunlight and cooling the climate throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Climate anomalies abounded, and the following decade was one of the coldest in the past 2,500 years. Evidence suggests that the extreme climate following the eruption resulted in devastating famine in South Asia, including Sri Lanka. In Buddhist sources, the so-called “Brahmanatissa famine” coincided with political turmoil and foreign invasion, forcing the monks of the island to write down theretofore orally preserved Pali scriptures to safeguard the doctrine.
Archaeological evidence of intensive indigenous farming in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, USA
Madeleine McLeester et al.
Science, 5 June 2025, Pages 1082-1085
Abstract:
We describe archaeological evidence of intensive ancestral Native American agriculture in the now heavily forested Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Recent LIDAR (light detection and ranging) and excavation data have uncovered densely clustered ancient agricultural raised garden bed ridges covering an expanse far greater than previously realized. These raised agricultural fields are deeply enmeshed in the broader cultural landscape, as ceremonial and other features were also found. Our results demonstrate a rich anthropogenic landscape created by small-scale ancestral Menominee communities, located near the northern limits of maize agriculture. The excellent preservation of this site is exceptional in eastern North America and suggests that the precolonial landscape was more anthropogenically influenced than currently recognized.
Constraining the population size estimates of the pre-Columbian Casarabe Culture of Amazonian Bolivia
Joseph Hirst et al.
PLoS ONE, May 2025
Abstract:
The capacity of Amazonian environments to support large indigenous societies prior to European Contact has long been a contentious area of debate, particularly in regions where pre-Columbian cultures are known to have constructed large, spatially complex earthworks. Here, we provide the first range of supported population estimates for the Casarabe Culture of the Bolivian Llanos de Moxos -- one of the most complex pre-Columbian societies yet documented in Amazonia. Between 400 and 1400 CE, the Casarabe Culture inhabited this forest-savanna mosaic landscape, where they constructed hundreds of monumental habitation mounds, integrated by a dense network of causeways and canals, suggesting the former presence of a large, sedentary society. To estimate the population size of this culture, we employed a multifaceted modelling approach -- including architectural energetics, maximum carrying capacity, and agent-based modelling -- which considers: (i) the number of people needed to build these earthworks; (ii) how many people the local environment could support; and (iii) how their population grew and spread over time. Our results indicate that the Casarabe Culture likely grew to a maximum population of between 10,000 and 100,000 people within a 5020 km2 quadrant of their former territory, representing a density of between 2 and 20 people km-2. These values are considerably larger than both the modern rural population density and the indigenous carrying capacity estimates made for Amazonia more widely, and they support previous interpretations that this culture practiced a form of low-density urbanism.