Offending Incentives
Truth in Sentencing, Incentives and Recidivism
David Macdonald
Review of Economics and Statistics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Parole was eliminated for many US offenders by Truth-in-Sentencing (TIS) laws in the 1990s. I exploit the introduction of TIS in Arizona to explore its impact on offenders before, during, and after incarceration. TIS Offenders were assigned significantly shorter sentences, largely eliminating the intended increase in punishment. These offenders reduced their rehabilitative effort while incarcerated, with rule infractions increasing by 22% and education enrollment falling by 24%. Finally, TIS offenders became 23% more likely to return to prison for a new conviction. I argue these effects were driven by TIS removing parole incentives, given that time served remained largely unchanged.
Driving While Broke: The Role of Class Signals in Police Discretion
Jedidiah Knode, Travis Carter & Scott Wolfe
Justice Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
There is ongoing debate over the latitude of discretion police officers have when conducting stops and searches. While necessary due to resource limitations and need for individualized justice, discretion involves subjective characteristics of suspicion formation, such as race and ethnicity, which could perpetuate disparities in traffic enforcement. Research has yet to explore other marginalizing characteristics of suspicion formation, such as drivers’ social class. This study draws on over 550,000 stops conducted by a large state police agency in 2022 and 2023 to explore how vehicle values serve as class signals influencing officers’ discretion. We found disparities, whereby lower value vehicles were more likely to be searched than higher value vehicles after matching based on when, where, and under what circumstances stops occurred. However, searches of lower value vehicles were less likely to result in contraband recovery. Our findings highlight potential avenues for officer training and research analyzing inequalities in policing.
When DNA Is and Isn’t Magic: A Conjunctive Analysis of How Context Matters in Homicide Investigations
Jillian Chamberlain, Terance Miethe & Wendy Regoeczi
Homicide Studies, forthcoming
Abstract:
Previous studies of homicide have examined the probative value of DNA and other forensic evidence for increasing case solvability and identifying best practices in prioritizing investigative resources. The current study was designed to extend this research by evaluating how different types of model specifications may dramatically alter substantive conclusions about the overall and context-specific effects of a DNA match on the likelihood of a homicide’s solvability. Analyses of a sample of 315 homicide cases from Cleveland, Ohio revealed that the presence of a DNA match had no overall significant effect on case clearance, but the impact of DNA exhibited large context-specific effects on this case outcome when its effect was evaluated conjunctively within subsets of offense attributes (i.e., different case profiles involving the presence or absence of eyewitnesses, contact weapons, and incidents in indoor locations) and victim characteristics (i.e., gender, race/ethnicity, income level of the victim’s place of residency). Results show that the most difficult to solve homicide cases are assisted by DNA matches, while DNA matches in homicides that occurred indoors with no eyewitnesses were associated with lower solvability. The results of these analyses are discussed in terms of their implications for future research to better identify the particular situational contexts in which DNA evidence is most and least effective in homicide solvability.
Detecting Bias in Traffic Searches: Examining False Searches of Innocent Drivers
Margaret Meyer & Richard Gonzalez
Journal of Quantitative Criminology, December 2024, Pages 791–812
Methods: We conceptualize police officer search decisions as a 2 (search/no search) by 2 (contraband present/absent) table, with missing data (if the police did not search, the presence of contraband is unknown). We constrain the feasible problem space using properties of a 2 x 2 contingency table. Then we examine all possible feasible 2 x 2 tables to identify instances of racial differences in police officer hit and false alarm rates. To do this, we develop a new test of racial bias, the Overlapping Condition Test. We analyze state and county data across 25 United States police departments.
Results: These departments have an observable racial difference in false alarm rate regardless of the true value of missing data (under every feasible 2 x 2 table there is a racial difference). This effect is found in 10 out of 14 state police departments and 9 out of 11 local departments across the United States. That is, for every feasible real world scenario police officers have lower false alarm rates for White drivers than Black drivers.
Therapy to Reduce Violence and Improve Institutional Safety During Incarceration
Mary Kate Batistich et al.
NBER Working Paper, November 2024
Abstract:
We evaluate the impact of Step Up, a cognitive behavioral therapy program administered to inmates at the Lubbock County Detention Center in Lubbock, Texas. Step Up aims to address self-destructive thought and behavior patterns through a combination of group classes, one-on-one counseling, and a structured workbook. We compare individuals over time who enter the Step Up program to a group of eligible and interested nonparticipants in an unbalanced two-way fixed effects framework. Despite similarities in observable characteristics and initial behavior metrics, individuals who enter Step Up exhibit a 49% reduction in monthly behavioral incident rates compared to the untreated group, which is about an 8-percentage point decline. The typical participant spends about 3 months in the program, and we find evidence that the behavioral improvements persist after program completion.
The Industrial Organization of the Mafia
Henry Thompson
Journal of Law and Economics, August 2024, Pages 555-587
Abstract:
This paper uses economic reasoning to analyze the organization of one of the most successful criminal groups in modern US history: La Cosa Nostra (LCN). Drawing on recently declassified Federal Bureau of Investigation reports and a hand-collected data set, I argue that the costs of violent disputes are key for an economic understanding of La Cosa Nostra’s core institutions. Violent disputes were costly as they consumed resources, were destructive, and raised the group’s profile. As a member did not bear the full costs of a profile-raising police investigation, each had a perverse incentive to resolve a dispute with violence. Hierarchical firms and a sophisticated court system were the LCN’s solution. They gave bosses the authority and incentive to limit violent disputes and to use violence judiciously. La Cosa Nostra’s longevity and success are, in part, a testament to these institutions’ efficacy.
Incremental Propensity Score Effects for Criminology: An Application Assessing the Relationship Between Homelessness, Behavioral Health Problems, and Recidivism
Leah Jacobs et al.
Journal of Quantitative Criminology, December 2024, Pages 707–726
Methods: We assessed the impact of homelessness at probation start on rearrest within one year among a cohort of people on probation (n = 2453). We estimated IPS effects, considering general and crime-specific recidivism if subjects were more or less likely to be unhoused, and assessed effect variation by behavioral health problem status. We used a doubly robust machine learning estimator to flexibly but efficiently estimate effects.
Results: A substantial intervention -- reducing homelessness by roughly 65% -- corresponded to a 9% reduction in the estimated average rate of recidivism (p < 0.05). Milder interventions showed smaller, non-significant effect sizes. Stratifying by behavioral health problem and rearrest type led to similar results without statistical significance.
Creating Solvability With Real-Time Crime Centers (RTCCs): Impacts on Homicide and Shooting Investigations
Lisa Barao & Chris Mastroianni
Police Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
Amidst recent increases in homicides and shootings in the United States, clearances rates for homicides have declined and nonfatal shooting cases remain notoriously difficult to solve. Considerable research indicates that the outcomes of homicide and shooting investigations are likely influenced by a range of factors, including inherited case characteristics, investigative actions, forensic testing, and agency resources. Recent advancements in technologies available to law enforcement may help fill persistent gaps in solvability, but research remains limited on their effectiveness. RTCCs integrate a variety of technological innovations and software programs to rapidly receive and distribute information to support police operations, and they harness the strong potential to powerfully impact investigative outcomes and offer an additional pathway through which police agencies can increase case clearance. The current study explores the impact of strategic efforts in the Hartford Police Department (HPD) to increase investigative effectiveness through RTCC processes and technologies. Our findings indicate that RTCC activities significantly increase the likelihood that a case is solved, and this effect is primarily due to RTCC analysts’ ability to locate and analyze video associated with the case. When associated video was located, cases were 442% more likely to be solved when controlling for other covariates. The HPD’s RTCC operations, institutionalized technology, and organizational culture also play a crucial role, with a commitment to technology and information-sharing enhancing investigative capabilities. This study emphasizes the effectiveness of real-time crime centers in locating digital evidence, facilitating rapid information dissemination, and fostering agencywide collaboration, ultimately improving investigative outcomes.
A soccer-based intervention improves incarcerated individuals’ behaviour and public acceptance through group bonding
Martha Newson et al.
Nature Human Behaviour, forthcoming
Abstract:
As incarceration rates rise globally, the need to reduce re-offending grows increasingly urgent. We investigate whether positive group bonds can improve behaviours among incarcerated people via a unique soccer-based prison intervention, the Twinning Project. We analyse effects of participation compared to a control group (study 1, n = 676, n = 1,874 control cases) and longitudinal patterns of social cohesion underlying these effects (study 2, n = 388) in the United Kingdom. We also explore desistance from crime after release (study 3, n = 249) in the United Kingdom and the United States. As law-abiding behaviour also requires a supportive receiving community, we assessed factors influencing willingness to employ formerly incarcerated people in online samples in the United Kingdom and the United States (studies 4–9, n = 1,797). Results indicate that social bonding relates to both improved behaviour within prison and increased willingness of receiving communities to support re-integration efforts. Harnessing the power of group identities both within prison and receiving communities can help to address the global incarceration crisis.