Natural Experiment
Beyond Gridlock: Green Drift in American Environmental Policymaking
Christopher McGrory Klyza & David Sousa
Political Science Quarterly, Fall 2010, Pages 443-463
Abstract:
Christopher McGrory Klyza and David Sousa argue that environmental policy in the United States has moved in the direction favored by environmentalists over the last two decades, despite efforts by many conservatives to roll back these policies. This green drift is based on the combination of major environmental laws and institutional structures created in the 1960s and 1970s and frozen in place by the legislative gridlock of the last two decades.
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Why Near-Miss Events Can Decrease an Individual's Protective Response to Hurricanes
Robin Dillon, Catherine Tinsley & Matthew Cronin
Risk Analysis, forthcoming
Abstract:
Prior research shows that when people perceive the risk of some hazardous event to be low, they are unlikely to engage in mitigation activities for the potential hazard. We believe one factor that can lower inappropriately (from a normative perspective) people's perception of the risk of a hazard is information about prior near-miss events. A near-miss occurs when an event (such as a hurricane), which had some nontrivial probability of ending in disaster (loss of life, property damage), does not because good fortune intervenes. People appear to mistake such good fortune as an indicator of resiliency. In our first study, people with near-miss information were less likely to purchase flood insurance, and this was shown for both participants from the general population and individuals with specific interests in risk and natural disasters. In our second study, we consider a different mitigation decision, that is, to evacuate from a hurricane, and vary the level of statistical probability of hurricane damage. We still found a strong effect for near-miss information. Our research thus shows how people who have experienced a similar situation but escape damage because of chance will make decisions consistent with a perception that the situation is less risky than those without the past experience. We end by discussing the implications for risk communication.
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Future CO2 Emissions and Climate Change from Existing Energy Infrastructure
Steven Davis, Ken Caldeira & Damon Matthews
Science, 10 September 2010, Pages 1330-1333
Abstract:
Slowing climate change requires overcoming inertia in political, technological, and geophysical systems. Of these, only geophysical warming commitment has been quantified. We estimated the commitment to future emissions and warming represented by existing carbon dioxide-emitting devices. We calculated cumulative future emissions of 496 (282 to 701 in lower- and upper-bounding scenarios) gigatonnes of CO2 from combustion of fossil fuels by existing infrastructure between 2010 and 2060, forcing mean warming of 1.3°C (1.1° to 1.4°C) above the pre-industrial era and atmospheric concentrations of CO2 less than 430 parts per million. Because these conditions would likely avoid many key impacts of climate change, we conclude that sources of the most threatening emissions have yet to be built. However, CO2-emitting infrastructure will expand unless extraordinary efforts are undertaken to develop alternatives.
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Designing a friendly space for technological change to slow global warming
William Nordhaus
Energy Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
What is the best strategy to encourage research and development on new energy technologies in a market economy? What steps can ensure a rapid and efficient transition to an economy that has much lower net carbon emissions? This paper shows that, under limited conditions, a necessary and sufficient condition for an appropriate innovational environment is a universal, credible, and durable price on carbon emissions. Such a price would balance the marginal damages from carbon emissions against the marginal costs of abating emissions; it should not contain a correction factor for inducing technological change. This result, which the paper calls "price fundamentalism," applies principally to the market-oriented part of research and innovation. It is subject to qualifications regarding the efficacy of intellectual property protection and the proper level of carbon prices, and it applies primarily to market sectors. The role of appropriate prices on emissions is a central part of public policies to encourage technologies to combat global warming.
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Orley Ashenfelter & Karl Storchmann
Review of Industrial Organization, August 2010, Pages 51-64
Abstract:
In this paper we measure the effect of year-to-year changes in the weather on wine prices and winery revenue in the Mosel Valley in Germany in order to determine the effect that climate change is likely to have on the income of wine growers. A novel aspect of our analysis is that we compare the estimates based on auction, retail, and wholesale prices. Although auction prices are based on actual transactions, they provide a thick market only for high quality, expensive wines and may overestimate climate's effect on farmer revenues. Wholesale prices, on the other hand, do provide broad coverage of all wines sold and probably come closest to representing the revenues of farmers. Overall, we estimate a 1°C increase in temperature would yield an increase in farmer revenue of about 30%.
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Haitao Yin, Alex Pfaff & Howard Kunreuther
Risk Analysis, forthcoming
Abstract:
Private risk reduction will be socially efficient only when firms are liable for all the damage that they cause. We find that environmental insurance can achieve social efficiency even when two traditional policy instruments - ex post fines and risk management mandates with ex ante fines - do not. Inefficiency occurs with ex post fines, when small firms declare bankruptcy and escape their liabilities, limiting the incentives from this policy tool. Firms ignore mandates to implement efficient risk management because regulatory agencies do not have sufficient resources to monitor every firm. The evolution of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's and states' underground storage tank programs suggests that mandating environmental insurance can address inefficiency due to small firms declaring bankruptcy. Comparing insurance mandates to risk management mandates, the burden on a regulator is lower if all it has to do is to confirm that the firm has insurance rather than that the firm has actually, and effectively, implemented required management practices. For underground storage tanks, we show that insurance lowered toxic releases.
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Alberto Alesina & Francesco Passarelli
NBER Working Paper, September 2010
Abstract:
We study which policy tool and at what level would be chosen by majority voting to reduce negative externalities, such as pollution. We consider three instruments: a rule, that sets an upper limit to the polluting activity, a quota that obliges to proportional reduction, and a tax on the activity. For all instruments the majority chooses too restrictive levels when pollution is mainly due to a small fraction of the population, and when costs for reducing activities or paying taxes are convex, and viceversa. Even though a tax is in general superior to the other two instruments, the majority may strategically choose a rule in order to charge the minority a larger share of the cost for the externality reduction.
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Miguel Esteban & Gorka Longarte-Galnares
Risk Analysis, forthcoming
Abstract:
A number of scientists have recently conducted research that shows that tropical cyclone intensity is likely to increase in the future. This would result in an increase in the damage along with a decrease in economic productivity due to precautionary cessation of the economic activity of the affected areas during the passage of the cyclone. The economic effect of this stop in economic activity is a phenomenon that has not received much attention in the past, and the cumulative effect that it can have on the Japanese economy over the next 75 years has never been evaluated. The starting point for the evaluation of the economic risks is the change in the patterns of tropical cyclone intensity suggested by Knutson and Tuleya.(1) The results obtained show how a significant decrease in the overall productivity of the country could be expected, which could lower GDP by between 6% and 13% by 2085.
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Household response to dynamic pricing of electricity: A survey of 15 experiments
Ahmad Faruqui & Sanem Sergici
Journal of Regulatory Economics, October 2010, Pages 193-225
Abstract:
Since the energy crisis of 2000-2001 in the western United States, much attention has been given to boosting demand response in electricity markets. One of the best ways to let that happen is to pass through wholesale energy costs to retail customers. This can be accomplished by letting retail prices vary dynamically, either entirely or partly. For the overwhelming majority of customers, that requires a change out of the metering infrastructure, which may cost as much as $40 billion for the US as a whole. While a good portion of this investment can be covered by savings in distribution system costs, about 40% may remain uncovered. This investment gap could be covered by reductions in power generation costs that could be brought about through demand response. Thus, state regulators in many states are investigating whether customers will respond to the higher prices by lowering demand and if so, by how much. To help inform this assessment, this paper surveys the evidence from the 15 most recent pilots, experiments and full-scale implementations of dynamic pricing of electricity. It finds conclusive evidence that households respond to higher prices by lowering usage. The magnitude of price response depends on several factors, such as the magnitude of the price increase, the presence of central air conditioning and the availability of enabling technologies such as two-way programmable communicating thermostats and always-on gateway systems that allow multiple end-uses to be controlled remotely. In addition, the design of the studies, the tools used to analyze the data and the geography of the assessment influence demand response. Across the range of experiments studied, time-of-use rates induce a drop in peak demand that ranges between 3 and 6% and critical-peak pricing (CPP) tariffs induce a drop in peak demand that ranges between 13 and 20%. When accompanied with enabling technologies, the latter set of tariffs lead to a reduction in peak demand in the 27-44% range.
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Political and public acceptability of congestion pricing: Ideology and self-interest
Björn Hårsman & John Quigley
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, Fall 2010, Pages 854-874
Abstract:
Studies of the "stated preferences" of households generally report public and political opposition by urban commuters to congestion pricing. It is thought that this opposition inhibits or precludes tolls and pricing systems that would enhance efficiency in the use of scarce roadways. This paper analyzes the only case in which road pricing was decided by a citizen referendum on the basis of experience with a specific pricing system. The city of Stockholm introduced a toll system for seven months in 2006, after which citizens voted on its permanent adoption. We match precinct voting records to resident commute times and costs by traffic zone, and we analyze patterns of voting in response to economic and political incentives. We document political and ideological incentives for citizen choice, but we also find that the pattern of time savings and incremental costs exerts a powerful influence on voting behavior. In this instance, at least, citizen voters behave as if they value commute time highly. When they have experienced first-hand the out-of-pocket costs and time savings of a specific pricing scheme, they are prepared to adopt freely policies that reduce congestion on urban motorways.
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Is Risk-Based Regulation Feasible? The Case of Polybrominated Diphenyl Ethers (PBDEs)
Brian Hector MacGillivray, Ruth Alcock & Jerry Busby
Risk Analysis, forthcoming
Abstract:
The polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are a class of brominated flame retardants used extensively in an array of textiles and plastics. Initially viewed as inert and nontoxic, in recent years an emerging body of science has cast doubt on this perception. Consequently, the compounds have drawn sustained government, media, and lobby group focus in the United States and Europe, yet have taken contrasting trajectories in different risk regulation regimes. We present a longitudinal analysis of these pathways, examining the actions of legislatures, executives, courts, scientists, and pressure groups. We show that the emergence and resolution of PBDEs as a risk issue was strongly shaped by path dependency, political entrainment (inter-institutional conflict unrelated to PBDEs), and partisan lawmaking. This raises the question of whether risk-based principles are capable of being the foundation on which managing the potential for harm can be based-even when that harm is associated with specific objects like flame-retardant chemicals. We conclude by reflecting on the difficult normative issues that are raised.
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Matthew Kahn, Ryan Vaughn & Jonathan Zasloff
Journal of Housing Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
The California coast line borders some of the most beautiful and expensive land in the entire world. The California Coastal Commission was created in 1976 to protect the coast line and to regulate land use within the Coastal Boundary Zone. This well defined regulatory boundary offers a unique opportunity to study the consequences of land use regulation on nearby housing located in the same political jurisdiction. Using two different geocoded data sets, we document gentrification within the boundary and discuss possible explanations for these patterns.
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Cultural cognition of scientific consensus
Dan Kahana, Hank Jenkins-Smith & Donald Braman
Journal of Risk Research, forthcoming
Abstract:
Why do members of the public disagree - sharply and persistently - about facts on which expert scientists largely agree? We designed a study to test a distinctive explanation: the cultural cognition of scientific consensus. The 'cultural cognition of risk' refers to the tendency of individuals to form risk perceptions that are congenial to their values. The study presents both correlational and experimental evidence confirming that cultural cognition shapes individuals' beliefs about the existence of scientific consensus, and the process by which they form such beliefs, relating to climate change, the disposal of nuclear wastes, and the effect of permitting concealed possession of handguns. The implications of this dynamic for science communication and public policy-making are discussed.
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The effects of gender on climate change knowledge and concern in the American public
Aaron McCright
Population and Environment, September 2010, Pages 66-87
Abstract:
This study tests theoretical arguments about gender differences in scientific knowledge and environmental concern using 8 years of Gallup data on climate change knowledge and concern in the US general public. Contrary to expectations from scientific literacy research, women convey greater assessed scientific knowledge of climate change than do men. Consistent with much existing sociology of science research, women underestimate their climate change knowledge more than do men. Also, women express slightly greater concern about climate change than do men, and this gender divide is not accounted for by differences in key values and beliefs or in the social roles that men and women differentially perform in society. Modest yet enduring gender differences on climate change knowledge and concern within the US general public suggest several avenues for future research, which are explored in the conclusion.
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The 12.9-ka ET Impact Hypothesis and North American Paleoindians
Vance Holliday & David Meltzer
Current Anthropology, October 2010, Pages 575-607
Abstract:
A hypothesized extraterrestrial impact in North America at 12,900 calendar years BP (12.9 ka) has been proposed as the cause of Younger Dryas climate changes, terminal Pleistocene mammalian extinctions, and a supposed "termination" of the Clovis archaeological culture. In regard to the latter, however, an examination of archaeological, geochronological, and stratigraphic evidence fails to provide evidence of a demographic collapse of post-Clovis human populations, especially where the Clovis and post-Clovis site records are reasonably well constrained chronologically. Although few Clovis sites contain evidence of an immediate post-Clovis occupation, interpreting that absence as population collapse is problematic because the great majority of Paleoindian sites also lack immediately succeeding occupations. Where multiple occupations do occur, stratigraphic hiatuses between them are readily explained by geomorphic processes. Furthermore, calibrated radiocarbon ages demonstrate continuous occupation across the time of the purported "Younger Dryas event." And, finally, the relatively few sites purported to provide direct evidence of the 12.9-ka impact are not well constrained to that time. Whether or not the proposed extraterrestrial impact occurred is matter for empirical testing in the geological record. Insofar as concerns the archaeological record, an extraterrestrial impact is an unnecessary solution for an archaeological problem that does not exist.
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Mike Hulme
Science as Culture, September 2010, Pages 303-326
Abstract:
Climate change has mutated from being a physical phenomenon to be studied to an idea to be contested. The sites of adjudication between competing truth claims have therefore moved from the secluded academy and scientific peer review to the vociferous agora and the extended peer community. This move is illustrated here using the case of the shrinking glaciers of Mt Kilimanjaro. Both the British engineer Guy Callendar, in 1944, and the American campaigner Al Gore, in 2006, claimed that the primary cause of this glacial recession was rising world temperature. Both were passionate believers in the reality of human-induced global warming, but they had very different resources at their disposal to advance these beliefs. While Callendar's claim was revealed only to the editor of the science journal Nature, Gore's claims were visible to millions through his film An Inconvenient Truth. While the force of Callendar's claim was weighed and adjudicated by one peer reviewer, the validity of Gore's claim was tested very publicly in the British courts. Both claims about the cause of Kilimanjaro's retreating glaciers were found wanting. The paper argues that this simple, but powerful, comparison between identical claims-making drawn from two different eras of science, yet with contrasting processes of truth-adjudication, illuminates the different 'post-normal' world of science climate change now inhabits. The case study is used to reflect on the role of the extended peer community in establishing and validating scientific knowledge about climate change: who participates, how trust is stabilised and whether science is thereby democratised.