Making Decisions
The Impact of Lie to Me on Viewers' Actual Ability to Detect Deception
Timothy Levine, Kim Serota & Hillary Shulman
Communication Research, forthcoming
Abstract:
The new television series Lie to Me portrays a social scientist solving crimes through his ability to read nonverbal communication. Promotional materials claim the content is based on actual science. Participants (N = 108) watched an episode of Lie to Me, a different drama, or no program and then judged a series of honest and deceptive interviews. Lie to Me viewers were no better at distinguishing truths from lies but were more likely than control participants to misidentify honest interviewees as deceptive. Watching Lie to Me decreases truth bias thereby increasing suspicion of others while at the same time reducing deception detection ability.
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Michaël Dambrun & Elise Vatiné
European Journal of Social Psychology, August 2010, Pages 760-773
Abstract:
In this study, we used a paradigm similar to the one used by Milgram in his classic obedience study, using an immersive video environment. We manipulated the victim's degree of visibility and his ethnicity. When the victim was hidden, the level of obedience we obtained was similar to Milgram's. Replicating previous findings observed in real environments, participants were more obedient when the victim was hidden than when he was visible, and the more obedient participants negated their own responsibility by projecting responsibility on both the victim and the experimenter. State-anger and right-wing authoritarianism (RWA) emerged as two significant predictors of the level of obedience. Illustrating an underlying process of racial-dehumanization, participants reported less anxiety and distress when the victim was a North African than when the victim was of the same racial origin as the participant. These results underscore the usefulness of using immersive environments when studying extreme social behaviors.
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Does Experience Teach? Professionals and Minimax Play in the Lab
John Wooders
Econometrica, May 2010, Pages 1143-1154
Abstract:
Does expertise in strategic behavior obtained in the field transfer to the abstract setting of the laboratory? Palacios-Huerta and Volij (2008) argued that the behavior of professional soccer players in mixed-strategy games conforms closely to minimax play, while the behavior of students (who are presumably novices in strategic situations requiring unpredictability) does not. We reexamine their data, showing that the play of professionals is inconsistent with the minimax hypothesis in several respects: (i) professionals follow nonstationary mixtures, with action frequencies that are negatively correlated between the first and the second half of the experiment, (ii) professionals tend to switch between under- and overplaying an action relative to its equilibrium frequency, and (iii) the distribution of action frequencies across professionals is far from the distribution implied by minimax. In each respect, the behavior of students conforms more closely to the minimax hypothesis.
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How genes make up your mind: Individual biological differences and value-based decisions
Thomas Ramsøy & Martin Skov
Journal of Economic Psychology, forthcoming
Abstract:
Neuroeconomics is the multidisciplinary study of value-based decision making. One of the core topics is how emotions affect decision making. Developments in economic models of decision making have been influenced by technological innovations and empirical findings in cognitive neuroscience. Now, a recent approach in cognitive neuroscience, often referred to as "imaging genetics", promises to make significant contributions to our understanding of both behavioral and neural aspects of value-based decision making. Recent work has demonstrated the role of neurotransmitter alterations in clinical states such as Parkinson's disease, depression and anxiety, and how this may affect decision behavior. However, these insights are limited through their focus on extreme neuropathology, which sheds little light on similar functions in healthy individuals. Here, we present and discuss studies of the role of drug-induced and genetically driven changes in neurotransmitter levels, and their effects on value-based decision making. Following this, we argue that in healthy subjects, individual variance in decision behavior can be explained by such genetic factors, and gene-environment interactions. We suggest that this development should be used in neuroeconomic research in order to both improve behavioral models, by stressing the biological nature of individual variance, and through the improvement of our general understanding of the brain basis of value-based decision making.
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Dazed and confused by choice: How the temporal costs of choice freedom lead to undesirable outcomes
Simona Botti & Christopher Hsee
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, July 2010, Pages 161-171
Abstract:
We propose that individuals underestimate the costs of making choices relative to the benefits of finding the best option. Specifically, we demonstrate that research participants make systematic mistakes in predicting the effect of having more, vs. less, choice freedom on task performance and task-induced affect. Even when participants have the information to understand that the costs of choice freedom outweigh its benefits, they still predict that choice freedom will lead to better performance and more positive affect. As a result, those who have the option to choose exercise it, yet end up performing worse and feeling worse than those who do not have that option.
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When less is enough: Cognitive aging, information search, and decision quality in consumer choice
Rui Mata & Ludmila Nunes
Psychology and Aging, June 2010, Pages 289-298
Abstract:
We conducted a meta-analysis of age differences in predecisional information search (N = 1,304) that suggests that aging is associated with a small but significant decrease in predecisional information search (Hedges's g = -0.30). In addition, we investigated the consequences of limited information search for decision quality in real-world consumer environments using simulation methods. Overall, the results suggest that the aging decision maker can afford to neglect information because this leads to small losses in decision quality. In other words, less may be enough for the aging consumer.
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I'm No Longer Torn After Choice: How Explicit Choices Implicitly Shape Preferences of Odors
Géraldine Coppin, Sylvain Delplanque, Isabelle Cayeux, Christelle Porcherot & David Sander
Psychological Science, April 2010, Pages 489-493
Abstract:
Several studies have shown that preferences can be strongly modulated by cognitive processes such as decision making and choices. However, it is still unclear whether choices can influence preferences of sensory stimuli implicitly. This question was addressed here by asking participants to evaluate odors, to choose their preferred odors within pairs, to reevaluate the odors, and to perform an unexpected memory test. Results revealed, for the first time in the study of olfaction, the existence of postchoice preference changes, in the sense of an overvaluation of chosen odors and a devaluation of rejected ones, even when choices were forgotten. These results suggest that chemosensory preferences can be modulated by explicit choices and that such modulation might rely on implicit mechanisms. This finding rules out any explanation of postchoice preference changes in terms of experimental demand and strongly challenges the classical cognitive-dissonance-reduction account of such preference changes.
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Laurent Waroquier, David Marchiori, Olivier Klein & Axel Cleeremans
Social Psychological and Personality Science, April 2010, Pages 111-118
Abstract:
According to unconscious thought theory, complex decisions are best made after a period of distraction assumed to elicit "unconscious thought." Here, the authors suggest instead that the superiority of decisions made after distraction results from the fact that conscious deliberation can deteriorate impressions formed on-line during information acquisition. The authors found that participants instructed to form an impression made better decisions after distraction than after deliberation, thereby replicating earlier findings. However, decisions made immediately were just as good as decisions made after distraction, which suggests (a) that people had already made their decision during information acquisition, (b) that deliberation without attention does not occur during distraction, and (c) that ruminating about one's first impression can deteriorate decision quality. Strikingly, in another condition that should have favored unconscious thought even more, deliberated decisions were better than immediate or distracted decisions. These findings were replicated in a field study.
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Expected value information improves financial risk taking across the adult life span
Gregory Samanez-Larkin, Anthony Wagner & Brian Knutson
Social Cognitive and Affective Neuroscience, forthcoming
Abstract:
When making decisions, individuals must often compensate for cognitive limitations, particularly in the face of advanced age. Recent findings suggest that age-related variability in striatal activity may increase financial risk-taking mistakes in older adults. In two studies, we sought to further characterize neural contributions to optimal financial risk taking and to determine whether decision aids could improve financial risk taking. In Study 1, neuroimaging analyses revealed that individuals whose mesolimbic activation correlated with the expected value estimates of a rational actor made more optimal financial decisions. In Study 2, presentation of expected value information improved decision making in both younger and older adults, but the addition of a distracting secondary task had little impact on decision quality. Remarkably, provision of expected value information improved the performance of older adults to match that of younger adults at baseline. These findings are consistent with the notion that mesolimbic circuits play a critical role in optimal choice, and imply that providing simplified information about expected value may improve financial risk taking across the adult life span.
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When More Alternatives Lead to Less Choice
Dmitri Kuksov & Miguel Villas-Boas
Marketing Science, May-June 2010, Pages 507-524
Abstract:
This paper shows that when the alternatives offered to consumers span the preference space (as it would be chosen by a firm), search or evaluation costs may lead consumers not to search and not to choose if too many or too few alternatives are offered. If too many alternatives are offered, then the consumer may have to engage in many searches or evaluations to find a satisfactory fit. This may be too costly and result in the consumer avoiding making a choice altogether. If too few alternatives are offered, then the consumer may not search or choose, fearing that an acceptable choice is unlikely. These two forces result in the existence of a finite optimal number of alternatives that maximizes the probability of choice.
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Generalized "satisfaction of search": Adverse influences on dual-target search accuracy
Mathias Fleck, Ehsan Samei & Stephen Mitroff
Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, March 2010, Pages 60-71
Abstract:
The successful detection of a target in a radiological search can reduce the detectability of a second target, a phenomenon termed satisfaction of search (SOS). Given the potential consequences, here we investigate the generality of SOS with the goal of simultaneously informing radiology, cognitive psychology, and nonmedical searches such as airport luggage screening. Ten experiments utilizing nonmedical searches and untrained searchers suggest that SOS is affected by a diverse array of factors, including (1) the relative frequency of different target types, (2) external pressures (reward and time), and (3) expectations about the number of targets present. Collectively, these experiments indicate that SOS arises when searchers have a biased expectation about the low likelihood of specific targets or events, and when they are under pressure to perform efficiently. This first demonstration of SOS outside of radiology implicates a general heuristic applicable to many kinds of searches. In an example like airport luggage screening, the current data suggest that the detection of an easy-to-spot target (e.g., a water bottle) might reduce detection of a hard-to-spot target (e.g., a box cutter).
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Framing Prisoners and Chickens: Valence Effects in the Prisoner's Dilemma and the Chicken Game
Peter de Heus, Niek Hoogervorst & Eric van Dijk
Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, forthcoming
Abstract:
In an experimental study we investigated how decisions in social dilemmas are affected by the valence of outcomes that are at stake. Prospect theory states that individuals are risk averse when outcomes are framed as gains, and risk seeking when outcomes are framed as losses. On the basis of this framework, previous research on social dilemmas has addressed the question of whether people are more cooperative in the negative domain than in the positive domain, but this research has led to inconsistent results. A possible explanation for this is that in many social dilemmas it is unclear whether cooperation or defection is the risky choice. In the current paper we compare the well-studied prisoner's dilemma with the less studied chicken game. Whereas in the prisoner's dilemma it is unclear what constitutes the risky option, in the chicken game the risky option is quite clear. Consistent with predictions, we found in the chicken game more defection in the gain frame than in the loss frame, but no difference between the gain and loss frame in the prisoner's dilemma. Moreover, choices were affected by risk attitude in the chicken game, but not in the prisoner's dilemma.
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Víctor Rubio, José Hernández, Flor Zaldívar, Oliva Márquez & José Santacreu
European Journal of Psychological Assessment, Spring 2010, Pages 87-94
Abstract:
Objective behavioral personality measures are an alternative to traditional self-report personality assessment and overcome some of the difficulties traditional assessment has. This paper presents two studies to validate two measures of risk propensity. In Study 1, 1,325 applicants for an ab initio air-traffic control training program were assessed using the Roulette Test (RT) and the Crossing the Street Test (CtST). Convergent as well as criterion validity were tested using the guessing tendency demonstrated by participants in a multiple-choice test. Once the effect of general cognitive ability was leveled out, results showed the predictive capacity of both tests. Study 2 replicated the previous study: 127 3rd-year psychology students were assessed using the RT. Results showed that the test had an even higher predictive validity of the Guessing Tendency (GT) revealed in a multiple-choice test. The usefulness for personnel recruitment processes and other assessment contexts is emphasized as are future trends of objective personality assessment.
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Computational Analysis of Committee Decision-Making
David Broniatowski
MIT Working Paper, May 2010
Abstract:
Negotiators and decision-makers are typically embedded within a web of existing social relations. Taken as a whole, these relations define an implicit social structure which can influence the decision outcome. One aspect of this structure is founded on interpersonal affinity between parties to the negotiation, and on the recognition of status characteristics, such as domain expertise. This paper presents a methodology aimed at extracting an explicit representation of such social structures using meeting transcripts as a data source. Use of this method is demonstrated on the transcripts of U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) advisory panel meeting transcripts; nevertheless, the approach presented here is extensible to other domains and requires only a meeting transcript as input. Preliminary results demonstrate that the method presented here can identify groups of decision-makers with a contextual affinity (i.e., membership in a given medical specialty or voting clique), can extract meaningful status hierarchies, and can identify differing facilitation styles among committee chairs.
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Behavioral Economics: Lessons from the Military
Alexander Field
Santa Clara University Working Paper, March 2010
Abstract:
In this paper, I consider a body of observational evidence not commonly studied by economists, namely the behavior of men and women (mostly men) in the military. I focus here on three issues: first the behavioral foundations for creating an effective military unit; second, evidence that infantrymen have historically been reluctant to fire on the enemy and how this reluctance has been overcome in the last half century through changes in military training, and third, the modern practice and conventions surrounding the taking of prisoners of war. The evidence in all three of these areas reinforces the appeal of the idea of cognitive modularity, the view that thought and behavior are influenced by different "mental organs." With respect to behavior, these usually align in the counsel they provide. But not always, and focusing on circumstances where guidance conflicts - Prisoners Dilemmas are examples - offers a route towards building a more coherent behavioral science.