Learning Systems
Optimism about Graduation and College Financial Aid
Emily Moschini, Gajendran Raveendranathan & Ming Xu
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, April 2026, Pages 148-187
Abstract:
In the United States, college dropout risk is sizable. We provide new empirical evidence that beliefs about the likelihood of earning a bachelor's degree predict college enrollment, and that the distribution of these beliefs exhibits widespread optimism. We incorporate this distribution of beliefs into an overlapping generations model with college as a risky investment that can be financed via federal loans, grants, family transfers, or earnings. We then examine the welfare impact of access to federal student loans. We find that access can reduce welfare for young adults who are low-skilled, poor, and optimistic, due to their mistaken beliefs.
Implications of Low Fertility and Declining Populations for the Operations of US State and Local Governments
Jeffrey Clemens
University of California Working Paper, April 2026
Abstract:
Declining fertility and population loss pose significant challenges for state and federal local governments responsible for providing a range of services to citizens, including education, health care, and infrastructure. Indeed, many areas are already experiencing outright population decline, with roughly half of U.S. counties losing population between 2010 and 2020. This paper examines how shrinking and aging populations affect the operations and fiscal sustainability of state and local governments. Preliminary evidence presented in this paper suggests that scaling down educational services is considerably more difficult than scaling up. The estimated per-enrollee cost increases associated with a 10 percent enrollment decline are four times larger than the cost decreases associated with a 10 percent enrollment increase. Regions with contracting populations will face additional challenges as a smaller working-age population bears the burden of funding pensions and retiree health plans for larger aging cohorts. While lower fertility can create a short run fiscal dividend as local governments serve fewer children, that dividend will only be realized if state and local public officials make efficient retrenchment a priority.
Critical thinking classes can reduce common biases: Results from a field experiment
Michael Bishop, Adam Feltz & Paul Conway
Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, forthcoming
Abstract:
Critical thinking classes are ubiquitous in U.S. college curricula. One of their aims is to teach good reasoning skills. To date, there is little systematic evidence that they do this. We report the results of a field experiment (N = 397) that compared undergraduate critical thinking classes taught in a philosophy department to other undergraduate philosophy classes. The results suggest that an appropriately designed critical thinking class can dramatically reduce four common biases in judgment and decision making: honoring sunk costs, inferring causation from correlation, ignoring regression to the mean, and overlooking opportunity costs. The size of the debiasing effects was substantial (Cohen's d > 0.80) and persisted at least 16 months after the class ended.
Work-Based Learning and Early Career Outcomes: Evidence on Earnings, College-Level Employment, and Career Progression
Nichole Torpey-Saboe, Hee Song & Mindi Thompson
Research in Higher Education, March 2026
Abstract:
Prior research has linked internships to career benefits for students. But are the benefits we see due to the internship itself or to other characteristics of students that make them both more likely to secure an internship and more likely to get a higher paying job after graduation? And do other forms of work-based learning also convey career benefits? In this study, we use a matching design on restricted-access data from the National Center for Education Statistics to analyze the link between work-based learning and employment outcomes for bachelor's degree completers one and four years after graduation. Work-based learning pathways explored include paid and unpaid internships, co-ops, practica and federal work-study jobs. After pre-processing the data via nearest neighbor matching on student academic and demographic characteristics to approximate experimental conditions, we find evidence that paid internships are associated with higher earnings one and four years after completion, as well as higher likelihood of college-level employment and career progression. We hypothesize three key mechanisms by which work-based learning might improve employment outcomes: development of transferable skills, networking that facilitates access to professional connections, and resume signaling for employers that demonstrates otherwise unobservable qualities of a candidate. Our analysis provides some support to all three mechanisms, but the strongest case for the third mechanism: symbolic capital/resume signaling. Unpaid internships and practica experiences are linked to higher likelihood of college-level employment and career progression, but not to earnings benefits.
Special Education Substantially Improves Learning: Evidence from Three States
Stephanie Coffey et al.
NBER Working Paper, March 2026
Abstract:
Special education serves more than one in seven U.S. students yet its causal impact remains understudied. Using longitudinal data from Massachusetts, Indiana, and Connecticut, we estimate the effect of individualized supports with an event-study design that tracks achievement around initial classification. Students' scores decline prior to placement and rise sharply afterward, yielding a consistent V-shaped pattern. Within three years, achievement is 0.2-0.4σ higher than counterfactual trends imply. Gains are similar across disability categories and subgroups, are not driven by testing accommodations, and remain under conservative assumptions. Individualized supports substantially increase learning productivity.
Impacts of the Four-Day School Week on Juvenile Crime
Rafiuddin Najam & Paul Thompson
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, Spring 2026
Abstract:
Schools are increasingly adopting four-day school weeks to address financial, attendance, and teacher retention issues, a trend that the COVID-19 pandemic has amplified. However, little is known about the nonacademic behavioral responses of juveniles to such transitions. We examine the impacts of adopting a four-day school week on juvenile crime, focusing particularly on disparities across rurality and locale size, using a difference-in-differences estimation approach. We find significant upticks in juvenile crime, primarily in property and violent crimes, within non-rural and large law enforcement agencies. Conversely, we find evidence suggesting a decrease in juvenile drug- and alcohol-related crimes during school hours on weekdays. In addition to changes in juvenile crime on nonschool weekdays, we observe spillover effects on the remaining weekdays and weekends, primarily in non-rural and large agency settings. Thus, decision-makers should be cognizant of the potential increase in juvenile crime that may result from the four-day school week.
The Missing Link: Technological Change, Dual VET, and Social Policy Preferences
Matthias Haslberger, Patrick Emmenegger & Niccolo Durazzi
British Journal of Political Science, April 2026
Abstract:
How does technological change affect social policy preferences? We advance this lively debate by focusing on the role of dual vocational education and training (VET). Existing literature would lead us to expect that dual VET increases demand for compensatory social policy and magnifies the effect of automation risk on such demands. In contrast, we contend that dual VET weakens demand for compensatory social policy through three non-mutually exclusive mechanisms that we refer to as (i) material self-interest; (ii) workplace socialization; and (iii) skill certification. We further hypothesize that dual VET mitigates the association between automation risk and social policy preferences. Analyzing cross-national individual data from the European Social Survey and national-level data on education systems, we find strong evidence for our argument. The paper advances the debate on social policy preferences in the age of automation and sheds new light on the relationship between skill formation and social policy preferences.
The Impact of Virtual Instruction on the Transition to College: Evidence from COVID-19
Nolan Pope & Yu Hung Yaow
NBER Working Paper, March 2026
Abstract:
During the COVID-19 pandemic, virtual instruction reduced in-person support that may have helped high school students transition to college. Using national school-level data on FAFSA submissions, ACT participation, and first-year college enrollment, we estimate a difference-in-differences model that exploits cross-school variation in virtual instruction during the 2020/2021 school year. A fully virtual school year reduced FAFSA submissions by 4.2 percentage points, ACT participation by 4.8 percentage points, and first-year college enrollment by 2.5 percentage points. FAFSA submissions partially rebounded after reopening, but ACT participation and college enrollment did not. Effects were substantially larger in disadvantaged schools.
Do Dual Enrollment Students Realize Better Long-Term Earnings? Variations in Financial Outcomes Among Key Student Groups in Texas
Navi Dhaliwal et al.
AERA Open, April 2026
Abstract:
This study considers whether dual enrollment is associated with students' earnings outcomes over a longer, 10-year time horizon after high school graduation, than previously analyzed in the existing literature. Using longitudinal administrative data that span K-12, higher education, and the workforce, we conducted a propensity score analysis to understand how dual credit participation among five cohorts in the state of Texas -- the 2008-2012 high school graduating classes -- correlates with annual earnings measured through the 10th year post high school graduation. We find that dual credit participants realize lower earnings than non-participants during the first 4 years after high school graduation, but achieve higher earnings in Years 5 through 10, netting a cumulative 10-year earnings increase of 6%. We find similar results across many student subpopulations, although smaller magnitudes of association for some, suggesting that dual enrollment relates favorably to distal measures of students' financial wellbeing.
Clearing up Transfer Admissions Standards: The Impact on Access and Outcomes
Lena Shi
Journal of Human Resources, March 2026, Pages 367-403
Abstract:
Students' college choices can affect their chances of earning a degree, but many lack the support to navigate the opaque college application and admissions process. This work evaluates whether guaranteeing admissions to four-year colleges based on transparent academic standards affects transfer enrollment choices and graduation rates. Guaranteed admissions increased high-GPA community college graduates' transfer rates to highly selective colleges by 30 percent. Graduation rates from highly selective colleges increased, and student debt decreased. Gains were largest for students with historically lower transfer rates. Transparent college admissions standards can increase access to selective colleges at low to no cost.