Home Sweet Home
Psychological and Cultural Factors in the Choice of Mortgage Products: A Behavioral Investigation
Masaki Mori, Julian Diaz, Alan Ziobrowski & Nico Rottke
Journal of Behavioral Finance, April 2010, Pages 82-91
Abstract:
Using data from three countries that differ economically, culturally, and geographically, this study examines the role of Prospect Theory's reflection effect, a psychological factor, in combination with Uncertainty Avoidance (UA), a cultural factor, on the choice of mortgage products. Experiments were conducted using business professionals in the United States, Germany, and Japan. The results suggest that risk-averse people tend to become more risk seeking, leaning more toward adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) when choosing a mortgage type, and that this psychological effect may underlie the mortgage choices of people who tend to choose ARMs, even across countries with different cultures.
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Property Rights for the Poor: Effects of Land Titling
Sebastian Galiani & Ernesto Schargrodsky
Journal of Public Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Secure property rights are considered a key determinant of economic development. The evaluation of the causal effects of property rights, however, is a difficult task as their allocation is typically endogenous. To overcome this identification problem, we exploit a natural experiment in the allocation of land titles. In 1981, squatters occupied a piece of land in a poor suburban area of Buenos Aires. In 1984, a law was passed expropriating the former owners' land to entitle the occupants. Some original owners accepted the government compensation, while others disputed the compensation payment in the slow Argentine courts. These different decisions by the former owners generated an exogenous allocation of property rights across squatters. Using data from two surveys performed in 2003 and 2007, we find that entitled families substantially increased housing investment, reduced household size, and enhanced the education of their children relative to the control group. These effects, however, did not take place through improvements in access to credit. Our results suggest that land titling can be an important tool for poverty reduction, albeit not through the shortcut of credit access, but through the slow channel of increased physical and human capital investment, which should help to reduce poverty in the future generations.
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Moral and Social Constraints to Strategic Default on Mortgages
Luigi Guiso, Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales
University of Chicago Working Paper, July 2009
Abstract:
We use survey data to study American households' propensity to default when the value of their mortgage exceeds the value of their house even if they can afford to pay their mortgage (strategic default). We find that 26% of the existing defaults are strategic. We also find that no household would default if the equity shortfall is less than 10% of the value of the house. Yet, 17% of households would default, even if they can afford to pay their mortgage, when the equity shortfall reaches 50% of the value of their house. Besides relocation costs, the most important variables in predicting strategic default are moral and social considerations. Ceteris paribus, people who consider it immoral to default are 77% less likely to declare their intention to do so, while people who know someone who defaulted are 82% more likely to declare their intention to do so. The willingness to default increases nonlinearly with the proportion of foreclosures in the same ZIP code. That moral attitudes toward default do not change with the percentage of foreclosures in the area suggests that the correlation between willingness to default and percentage of foreclosures is likely to derive from a contagion effect that reduces the social stigma associated with default as defaults become more common.
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Diagnosing Consumer Confusion and Sub-Optimal Shopping Effort: Theory and Mortgage-Market Evidence
Susan Woodward & Robert Hall
NBER Working Paper, May 2010
Abstract:
Mortgage loans are leading examples of transactions where experts on one side of the market take advantage of consumers' lack of knowledge and experience. We study the compensation that borrowers pay to mortgage brokers for assistance from application to closing. Two findings support the conclusion that confused borrowers overpay for brokers' services: (1) A model of effective shopping shows that borrowers sacrifice at least $1,000 by shopping from too few brokers. (2) Borrowers who compensate their brokers with both cash and a commission from the lender pay twice as much as similar borrowers who pay no cash.
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Race, Literacy, and Real Estate Transactions in the Postbellum South
Neil Canaday & Charles Reback
Journal of Economic History, June 2010, Pages 428-445
Abstract:
This article examines barriers that impeded the accumulation of land by African Americans in the postbellum South with a new data set of real estate transactions from 1880 Tennessee. We find that rates of purchase by African Americans differed little between plantation and non-plantation regions. We also find that parcels sold in plantation regions were relatively small, suggesting that African American accumulation of land was not hindered by plantation owners refusing to subdivide their properties. Additionally, we find blacks paid more than whites per acre of quality-constant land, although literacy at least partially mitigated the racial price discrimination.
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A spatio-temporal model of house prices in the US
Sean Holly, Hashem Pesaran & Takashi Yamagata
Journal of Econometrics, forthcoming
Abstract:
This paper provides an empirical analysis of changes in real house prices in the US using State level data. It examines the extent to which real house prices at the State level are driven by fundamentals such as real per capita disposable income, as well as by common shocks, and determines the speed of adjustment of real house prices to macroeconomic and local disturbances. We take explicit account of both cross sectional dependence and heterogeneity. This allows us to find a cointegrating relationship between real house prices and real per capita incomes with coefficients View the MathML source, as predicted by the theory. We are also able to identify a significant negative effect for a net borrowing cost variable, and a significant positive effect for the State level population growth on changes in real house prices. Using this model we then examine the role of spatial factors, in particular the effect of contiguous states by use of a weighting matrix. We are able to identify a significant spatial effect, even after controlling for State specific real incomes, and allowing for a number of unobserved common factors. We do, however, find evidence of departures from long run equilibrium in the housing markets in a number of States notably California, New York, Massachusetts, and to a lesser extent Connecticut, Rhode Island, Oregon and Washington State.
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Risk Aversion and Wealth: Evidence from Person-to-Person Lending Portfolios
Daniel Paravisini, Veronica Rappoport & Enrichetta Ravina
NBER Working Paper, June 2010
Abstract:
We estimate risk aversion from the actual financial decisions of 2,168 investors in Lending Club (LC), a person-to-person lending platform. We obtain risk preference parameters of similar magnitude and heterogeneity across investors than those in experimental studies. Using house prices as an indicator of investor wealth, we find that investors' willingness to take risk in LC is affected by their outside wealth: wealthier investors are more risk averse, but any given investor becomes more risk averse after a negative wealth shock. These wealth elasticities consistently extrapolate to other investor decisions.
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Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, Pierre-Daniel Sarte & Raymond Owens
Journal of Political Economy, June 2010, Pages 485-535
Abstract:
Using data compiled from concentrated residential urban revitalization programs implemented in Richmond, VA between 1999 and 2004, we study residential externalities. Specifically, we provide evidence that in neighborhoods targeted by the programs, sites that did not directly benefit from capital improvements nevertheless experienced considerable increases in land value relative to similar sites in a control neighborhood. Within the targeted neighborhoods, increases in land value are consistent with externalities that fall exponentially with distance. In particular, we estimate that housing externalities decrease by half approximately every 1000 feet. On average, land prices in neighborhoods targeted for revitalization rose by 2 to 5 percent at an annual rate above those in the control neighborhood. These increases translate into land value gains of between $2 and $6 per dollar invested in the program over a six-year period. We provide a simple theory that helps us interpret and estimate these effects.
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Interest Rates Following Financial Re-regulation
Jeffrey Campbell & Zvi Hercowitz
Economic Perspectives, Winter 2010, Pages 2-13
Abstract:
This article uses a calibrated general-equilibrium model of lending from the wealthy to the middle class to evaluate the effects of tightening household lending standards. The authors simulate a rise in down payment and amortization rates from their average values in the late 1990s and early 2000s to levels more typical of the era before the financial deregulation of the early 1980s. Their results show a drop in loan demand. This substantially lowers interest rates for an extended period. Counterintuitively, tightening lending standards makes borrowers better off.
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Fernando Ferreira
Journal of Public Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
The endogeneity of prices has long been recognized as the main identification problem in the estimation of marginal willingness to pay (MWTP) for the characteristics of a given product. This issue is particularly important in the housing market, since a number of housing and neighborhood features are unobserved by the econometrician. This paper proposes the use of a well defined type of transaction costs - moving costs generated by property tax laws - to deal with this type of omitted variable bias. California's Proposition 13 property tax law is the source of variation in transaction costs used in the empirical analysis. Beyond its fiscal consequences, Proposition 13 created a lock-in effect on housing choice because of the implicit tax break enjoyed by homeowners living in the same house for a long time. Its importance to homeowners is estimated from a natural experiment created by two amendments that allow households headed by an individual over the age of 55 to transfer the implicit tax benefit to a new home. Indeed, 55-year old homeowners have 25% higher moving rates than those of comparable 54 year olds. These transaction costs from the property tax laws are then incorporated into a household sorting model. The key insight is that because of the property tax laws, different potential buyers may have different user costs for the same house. The exogenous property tax component of this user cost is then used as an instrumental variable. I find that MWTP estimates for housing characteristics are approximately 100% upward biased when the choice model does not account for the price endogeneity.
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Low-Income Homeownership: Does It Necessarily Mean Sacrificing Neighborhood Quality to Buy a Home?
Anna Santiago, George Galster, Angela Kaiser, Ana Santiago-San Roman, Rebecca Grace & Andrew Linn
Journal of Urban Affairs, May 2010, Pages 171-198
Abstract:
Questions have been raised about the wisdom of low-income homeownership policies for many reasons. One potential reason to be skeptical: low-income homebuyers perhaps may be constrained to purchase homes in disadvantaged neighborhoods. This is a potential problem because home purchases in such neighborhoods: (1) may limit appreciation; (2) may reduce quality of life for adults; and (3) may militate against reputed advantages of homeownership for children. Our study examines the neighborhood conditions of a group of 126 low-income homebuyers who purchased their first home with assistance from the Home Ownership Program (HOP) operated by the Denver Housing Authority. Our approach is distinguished by its use of a comprehensive set of objective and subjective indicators measuring the neighborhood quality of pre-move and post-move neighborhoods. Do low-income homebuyers sacrifice neighborhood quality to buy their homes? Our results suggest that the answer to this question is more complex than it might at first appear. On the one hand, HOP homebuyers purchased in a wide variety of city and suburban neighborhoods. Nonetheless, a variety of neighborhood quality indicators suggest that these neighborhoods, on average, were indeed inferior to those of Denver homeowners overall and to those in the same ethnic group. However, our analyses also revealed that their post-move neighborhoods were superior to the ones they lived in prior to homeownership. Moreover, very few HOP destination neighborhoods evinced severe physical, environmental, infrastructural, or socioeconomic problems, as measured by a wide variety of objective indicators or by the homebuyers' own perceptions. Indeed, only 10% of HOP homebuyers perceived that their new neighborhoods were worse than their prior ones, and only 8% held pessimistic expectations about their new neighborhoods' quality of life. Finally, we found that Black homebuyers fared less well than their Latino counterparts, on average, in both objective and subjective measures.
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Is Urban Decay Bad? Is Urban Revitalization Bad Too?
Jacob Vigdor
Journal of Urban Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Neighborhood revitalization could, in theory, harm some existing residents if it leads to price increases that exceed their willingness-to-pay. I use data from the American Housing Survey to estimate a discrete choice model identifying households' willingness-to-pay for neighborhood quality. These willingness-to-pay estimates are then compared to the actual price changes that accompany observed changes in neighborhood quality. The results suggest that price increases associated with revitalization are smaller than most households' willingness to pay for neighborhood improvements. Conversely, declines in neighborhood quality are generally not accompanied by rent declines sufficient to compensate the typical resident. For the majority of the population, then, neighborhood revitalization is beneficial and decline detrimental.