Green Years
The Effect of TMI on the Electric Grid or: How We Did Not Learn to Stop Worrying and Love Nuclear Power
Roma Poberejsky & Guillaume Gex
Northwestern University Working Paper, August 2024
Abstract:
With the goal of 1000 nuclear power plants by the year 2000, the US was on the path to energy independence. However, the 1979 Three Mile Island accident turned public opinion against nuclear energy and spelled decades of stagnation for the industry. We show that the accident both halted the growth of the US reactor fleet, and stifled innovation in nuclear physics. We propose a mechanism by which accumulated scientific knowledge determines the capacity of nuclear reactors, and find that some 55 billion tons of CO2 emissions, 2.3 million premature deaths, and 14 trillion USD in health costs could have been avoided, had we displaced fossil fuels with nuclear power.
Texas: A green hydrogen hub to decarbonize the United States and beyond
Haiyang Lin et al.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10 December 2024
Abstract:
As the largest oil and gas producer in the United States, Texas confronts significant challenges in its shift toward decarbonization. This study explores the potential for green hydrogen in Texas as a substitute for current development, underscoring numerous advantages such as ample renewables, established demand, and operational infrastructure. We present an hourly-resolution, cross-sector assessment framework to optimize grid-integrated green hydrogen supply paths from managing local applications to meeting potential export opportunities. The analysis indicates that by 2030, Texas could have over 50 million tons of green hydrogen available at $1.5/kg. Even with the incrementality, deliverability, and temporal matching requirements of 45 V, green hydrogen remains more competitive than blue hydrogen. On the supply side, the grid-electrolysis integration results in synergetic benefits, including overall cost reductions, less curtailment of renewables, and enhanced operational flexibility and reliability. On the demand side, this cost-competitive hydrogen could bring the cost of hydrogen fueling and ammonia production down to $4/kg and $350/ton respectively, with a significant impact in replacing fossil fuels in transport and industry. For most of the states, green hydrogen and ammonia imported from Texas could become an affordable alternative to local supplies. Through both onshore pipelines and offshore shipments, Texas has the potential to develop as a major green fuel supplier, aiding in decarbonization efforts not only for the United States but also beyond.
The End of Oil
Ryan Kellogg
NBER Working Paper, November 2024
Abstract:
It is now plausible to envision scenarios in which global demand for crude oil falls to essentially zero by the end of this century, driven by improvements in clean energy technologies, adoption of stringent climate policies, or both. This paper asks what such a demand decline, when anticipated, might mean for global oil supply. One possibility is the well-known “green paradox”: because oil is an exhaustible resource, producers may accelerate near-term extraction in order to beat the demand decline. This reaction would increase near-term CO2 emissions and could possibly even lead the total present value of climate damages to be greater than if demand had not declined at all. However, because oil extraction requires potentially long-lived investments in wells and other infrastructure, the opposite may occur: an anticipated demand decline reduces producers' investment rates, decreasing near-term oil production and CO2 emissions. To evaluate whether this disinvestment effect outweighs the green paradox, or vice-versa, I develop a tractable model of global oil supply that incorporates both effects, while also capturing industry features such as heterogeneous producers, exercise of market power by low-cost OPEC producers, and marginal drilling costs that increase with the rate of drilling. I find that for model inputs with the strongest empirical support, the disinvestment effect outweighs the traditional green paradox. In order for anticipation effects on net to substantially increase cumulative global oil extraction, I find that industry investments must have short time horizons, and that producers must have discount rates that are comparable to U.S. treasury bill rates.
The Democrat Disaster: Hurricane Exposure, Risk Aversion and Insurance Demand
Raluca Pahontu
Journal of Politics, forthcoming
Abstract:
How does exposure to natural disasters influence voter decision-making? Whilst extreme weather events are exogenous shocks, observed effects often rely on compound treatment effects of exposure not only to threat but also to direct losses. To circumvent this, I use difference-in-differences estimates of hurricane nearly-hit areas in the US to study the effect of proximity to hazard on vote choice. I find that Democrats’ vote share decreases following a near-miss in both House and Senate races between 2002-2014. Conventional explanations related to religiosity, authority, or competence fail to explain this effect. Instead, I propose Republican gains are driven by voters’ spending on private insurance and increased willingness to take risks when spared from disaster. I therefore advance an alternative explanation for voting in response to natural disasters by relying on novel data on hurricane trajectories, precinct electoral returns, risk-aversion, and private insurance inquiries.
Impact of solar geoengineering on temperature-attributable mortality
Anthony Harding et al.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 24 December 2024
Abstract:
Decisions about solar geoengineering (SG) entail risk–risk tradeoffs between the direct risks of SG and SG’s ability to reduce climate risks. Quantitative comparisons between these risks are needed to inform public policy. We evaluate idealized SG’s effectiveness in reducing deaths from warming using two climate models and an econometric analysis of temperature-attributable mortality. We find SG’s impact on temperature-attributable mortality is uneven with decreases for hotter, poorer regions and increases in cooler, richer regions. Relative to no SG, global mortality is reduced by over 400,000 deaths annually [90% CI: (−1.2 million,2.7 million)] for cooling of 1 °C from 2.5 °C above preindustrial in 2080. We find no evidence that mortality reduction achieved by SG is smaller than the reduction from equivalent cooling by emissions reductions. Combining our estimates with existing estimates of sulphate aerosol injection direct mortality risk from air quality and UV-attributable cancer enables the first quantitative risk-risk comparison of SG. We estimate with 61% probability that the mortality benefits of cooling outweigh these direct SG risks. We find the benefits outweigh these risks by 13 times for our central estimates, or 4 deaths per 100,000 per 1 °C per year [90% CI: (−11,23)]. This is not a comprehensive evaluation of the risk–risk tradeoffs around SG, yet by comparing some of the most consequential impacts on human welfare it is a useful first step. While these findings are robust to a variety of alternative assumptions, considerable uncertainties remain and require further investigation.
Recent global temperature surge intensified by record-low planetary albedo
Helge Goessling, Thomas Rackow & Thomas Jung
Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
In 2023, the global mean temperature soared to almost 1.5K above the pre-industrial level, surpassing the previous record by about 0.17K. Previous best-guess estimates of known drivers including anthropogenic warming and the El Niño onset fall short by about 0.2K in explaining the temperature rise. Utilizing satellite and reanalysis data, we identify a record-low planetary albedo as the primary factor bridging this gap. The decline is apparently caused largely by a reduced low-cloud cover in the northern mid-latitudes and tropics, in continuation of a multi-annual trend. Further exploring the low-cloud trend and understanding how much of it is due to internal variability, reduced aerosol concentrations, or a possibly emerging low-cloud feedback will be crucial for assessing the current and expected future warming.
The benefits of removing toxic chemicals from plastics
Maureen Cropper et al.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 24 December 2024
Abstract:
More than 16,000 chemicals are incorporated into plastics to impart properties such as color, flexibility, and durability. These chemicals may leach from plastics, resulting in widespread human exposure during everyday use. Two plastic-associated chemicals -- bisphenol A (BPA) and di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) -- and a class of chemicals -- brominated flame retardants [polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs)] -- are credibly linked to adverse health and cognitive impacts. BPA exposures are associated with ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, DEHP exposure with increased all-cause mortality among persons 55 to 64 y old, and prenatal PBDE exposures in mothers with IQ losses in their children. We estimate BPA, DEHP, and PBDE exposures in 38 countries containing one-third of the world’s population. We find that in 2015, 5.4 million cases of IHD and 346,000 cases of stroke were associated with BPA exposure; that DEHP exposures were linked to approximately 164,000 deaths among 55-to-64 y olds; and that 11.7 million IQ points were lost due to maternal PBDE exposure. We estimate the costs of these health impacts to be $1.5 trillion 2015 purchasing power parity dollars. If exposures to BPA and DEHP in the United States had been at 2015 levels since 2003, 515,000 fewer deaths would have been attributed to BPA and DEHP between 2003 and 2015. If PBDE levels in mothers had been at 2015 levels since 2005, over 42 million IQ points would have been saved between 2005 and 2015.