Global Governance
Social Media and Collective Action in China
Bei Qin, David Strömberg & Yanhui Wu
Econometrica, forthcoming
Abstract:
This paper studies how social media affects the dynamics of protests and strikes in China during 2009-2017. Based on 13.2 billion microblog posts, we use tweets and retweets to measure social media communication across cities and exploit its rapid expansion for identification. We find that, despite strict government censorship, Chinese social media has a sizeable effect on the geographical spread of protests and strikes. Furthermore, social media communication considerably expands the scope of protests by spreading events across different causes (e.g., from anti-corruption protests to environmental protests) and dramatically increases the probability of far-reaching protest waves with simultaneous events occurring in many cities. These effects arise even though Chinese social media barely circulates content that explicitly helps organize protests.
When you come at the king: Opposition coalitions and nearly stunning elections
Oren Samet
American Journal of Political Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
Opposition coalitions under electoral authoritarianism have been associated with greater likelihood of opposition victory and democratization. I argue, however, that coalitions also entail significant downside risks with implications for longer term prospects for democracy. Where coalitions produce strong electoral outcomes but fail to force turnovers, regimes are left with both the incentive and capacity to repress and reconsolidate power. I show cross-nationally that opposition coalitions are associated with stronger opposition performance overall, but that when oppositions fail to take power, exceptionally strong performance is associated with greater autocratization in the subsequent years, including increased repression and poorer electoral quality in future contests. Probing the case of Cambodia, I demonstrate how the very features that make opposition coalitions a useful tool in strengthening performance also invite new threats from regimes. I argue that this makes coalition formation a particularly risky proposition.
Rehabilitating Republican China: Historical Memory, National Identity and Regime Legitimacy in the Post-Mao Era
Qiang Zhang
China Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
Described in the Chinese Communist Party's orthodox historiography as a dark and repressive period and part of the “century of humiliation,” the Republican era has in recent decades undergone a significant reassessment in the People's Republic of China (PRC). In books, newspaper articles, documentaries and dramas, Republican China has sometimes been portrayed as a vibrant society making remarkable progress in modernization in the face of severe external challenges. This article explores the origins of this surprising rehabilitation and examines in detail how the Republican-era economic legacies have been reassessed in the reform era. It finds that while the post-Mao regime continues to use the negative view of China's pre-communist history to maintain its historical legitimacy, it has also been promoting a positive view of aspects of the same period in order to support its post-1978 priorities of modernization and nationalism, a trend that has persisted under Xi Jinping despite his tightened ideological control. The selective revival of Republican legacies, although conducive to the Party's current political objectives, has given rise to revisionist narratives that damage the hegemony of its orthodox historical discourses, on which its legitimacy still relies.
The Double-Edged Sword: How State Capacity Prolongs Autocratic Tenure but Hastens Democratization
Per Andersson & Jan Teorell
Journal of Conflict Resolution, forthcoming
Abstract:
This paper is concerned with state capacity and autocrat survival. We argue that state strength in autocracies increases leader tenure but reduces the stability of the regime itself; stronger autocracies run a higher risk of transitioning to democracy. This trade-off arises as a result of how state capacity affects the behavior of elite challengers. A stronger state reduces the likelihood of the ruler being ousted by force, inducing rival elites to switch tactics to peaceful support for democracy. An autocrat may prolong his tenure by investing in state capacity, but this brings on the downfall of the autocratic regime itself. We analyze the implications of our argument using a variety of historical sources providing information on 47 autocracies from 1800 to 2012. Our empirical findings, in part based on original data collection, are in line with the theoretical expectations: in strong states autocrats survive, but autocracies die.
Workload, Legal Doctrine, and Judicial Review in An Authoritarian Regime: A Study of Expropriation Judgments in China
Chaoqun Zhan & Shitong Qiao
International Review of Law and Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
This paper contributes one of the first systematic studies on how courts adjudicate expropriation disputes both in the absence of judicial independence and in the face of resource constraints, extends the study of judicial workload into an authoritarian context, and demonstrates the complicated and dynamic interactions between apolitical and political aspects of courts in authoritarian regimes. Our results demonstrate that legal doctrine can check the abuse of government power even in situations where it is least expected. Specifically, we examined how Chinese courts, faced with an explosive increase in workload caused by a legal reform in 2015, adjudicated expropriation disputes between the government and property rights holders. Employing a difference-in-differences method, we found an increased judicial workload to improve property rights holders’ chances of winning their case against the government. We discovered that judges’ use of hard-edged legal doctrine -- administrative procedures, in particular -- to save time constrained judicial discretion, which is prone to arbitrary political influence in authoritarian regimes.
Divided loyalty: Are broadly recruited militaries less likely to repress nonviolent antigovernment protests?
Paul Johnson & Max Margulies
Journal of Peace Research, forthcoming
Abstract:
This article tests whether social distance between the military and society leads soldiers to refrain from violence against protesters, and how that expectation affects the regime’s decision of whether to deploy the military in the first place. In contrast with previous research that primarily examined aggregated protest campaigns and often in geographically limited samples, this study is conducted at the micro-level using daily event data. It employs the Integrated Crisis Early Warning System dataset to identify more than 36,000 protest-day events in 168 countries between 1997 and 2015, coding whether and how soldiers responded. In addition, this study also demonstrates theoretically and empirically the need to differentiate conscription from the military participation rate as measures of social distance. Contrary to expectations, it does not find evidence that conscription results in a lower likelihood of violence or deters the regime from deploying soldiers to put down protests, and it finds only weak evidence that higher military participation rate results in a lower likelihood of violence. It also finds that conscription increases rather than decreases the likelihood of soldiers being deployed against protests.
Damocles's Switchboard: Information Externalities and the Autocratic Logic of Internet Control
Meicen Sun
International Organization, forthcoming
Abstract:
This paper advances a theory for the autocratic logic of internet control. Politically motivated internet control generates a positive externality for domestic data-intensive firms and a negative externality for domestic knowledge-intensive research entities. Exploiting a major internet control shock in 2014, I find that Chinese data-intensive firms gained 26 percent in revenue over other Chinese firms as the result of internet control. The same shock incurred a 10 percent decline in research quality from Chinese researchers, conditional on the knowledge intensity of their discipline. It also reduced the research quality from Chinese researchers relative to their US counterparts by 22 percent in all disciplines. Due to the positive data externality, internet control enacted to prevent domestic threats challenges the state's competing need for data sovereignty against foreign threats. Meanwhile, the state shields certain foreign knowledge-intensive actors from the negative knowledge externality to avoid the immediate economic costs they might otherwise impose. Qualitative evidence supports both implications, highlighting the centrality of short-term interests and foreign actors in autocratic decision making.
Why Was Central Europe Characterized by Political Fragmentation?
Jonathan Doucette
Journal of Historical Political Economy, May 2024, Pages 89-115
Abstract:
Political fragmentation and resulting continuous warfare were important parts of European history, and it has been linked to innovation, economic growth, regime change, and state formation. Scholars have long debated the importance of the decade-long interregnum in the Roman Empire of the German Nation for this development. This article documents that the death of Emperor Frederick II in 1250 and the ensuing demise of the Hohenstaufen dynasty marked a divergence in central European history. Prior to 1250, the level of political fragmentation was similar in the Empire and other European states; after 1250, imperial areas saw a marked increase in local political autonomy compared to other areas. This difference in political fragmentation persisted until the modern period.
The impact of democracy on peace in Africa: Empirical evidence
Chimere Iheonu, Princewill Okwoche & Shedrach Agbutun
Politics & Policy, October 2024, Pages 1038-1058
Abstract:
The nexus between democracy and peace in Africa is examined by applying data to 42 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries between 2008 and 2020. The study used panel regression techniques that include Ordinary Least Squares, the Tobit regression to account for the limited range of the dependent variable, and the System Generalized Method of Moments to account for endogeneity bias. Using seven indicators of democracy, which include electoral democracy, liberal democracy, participatory democracy, deliberative democracy, egalitarian democracy, a total democracy index derived from principal component analysis, and the Polity2 score, and using the global peace index as a proxy for peace, our findings show that all the indicators of democracy, irrespective of the model, have a positive and significant influence on peace in SSA. The result has underscored the importance of advancing democratic practices and values to promote sustainable peace and stability in the region.
Strategic state violence and migration in conflict
Jessica Sun
American Journal of Political Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
Governments routinely wage civil conflicts in ways that disrupt civilians' lives and livelihoods, creating harmful externalities like internal displacement. Both fighting and displacement hinder economic activity, jeopardizing popular support for governments and reducing the future gains of governance. How do states fight when using force induces migration and thus risks popular discontent? I model a conflict where government efforts to control territory spur displacement, creating economic disruption that can spark tension between displaced civilians and government supporters. The risk of losing popular support leads the government to modify its tactics. While the government could mitigate the disruptive consequences of displacement by fighting less, I find another, more troubling, strategy. Governments may engage in preemptive violence to prevent migration. Moreover, economic downturns exacerbate migration incentives and, I find, can also increase violence against civilians. Governments anticipating displacement fight more intense conflicts today to see relatively less migration in the future.