Getting away with It
The Crime Drop and the Security Hypothesis
Graham Farrell et al.
Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, May 2011, Pages 147-175
Abstract:
Major crime drops were experienced in the United States and most other industrialized countries for a decade from the early to mid-1990s. Yet there is little agreement over explanation or lessons for policy. Here it is proposed that change in the quantity and quality of security was a key driver of the crime drop. From evidence relating to vehicle theft in two countries, it is concluded that electronic immobilizers and central locking were particularly effective. It is suggested that reduced car theft may have induced drops in other crime including violence. From this platform, a broader security hypothesis, linked to routine activity and opportunity theory, is outlined.
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Race, Punishment, and the Michael Vick Experience
Alex Piquero et al.
Social Science Quarterly, June 2011, Pages 535-551
Objective: The relationship between race and crime has been contentious, focusing primarily on offending and incarceration patterns among minorities. There has been some limited work on public perceptions of criminal punishment, and findings show that while minorities believe in the role and rule of law, they simultaneously perceive the justice system as acting in a biased and/or unfair manner. Two limitations have stalled this literature. First, research has focused mainly on criminal punishments to the neglect of noncriminal punishments. Second, most studies have not examined whether race remains salient after considering other demographic variables or discrimination and legitimacy attitudes.
Methods: Using data from 400 adults, we examine how race affects perceptions of criminal punishment and subsequent reinstatement into the National Football League in the case of Michael Vick, a star professional quarterback who pled guilty to charges of operating an illegal dog-fighting ring.
Results: Findings show that whites are more likely to view Vick's punishment as too soft and that he should not be reinstated, while nonwhites had the opposite views. Race remained significant after controlling for other variables believed to be related to punishment perceptions.
Conclusion: Attitudes toward both criminal punishment and NFL reinstatement vary across race such that there exists important divides in how individuals perceive the system meting out punishment and subsequently reintegrating offenders back into society. These results underscore that white and nonwhites perceive the law and its administration differently.
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Moral Signals, Public Outrage, and Immaterial Harms
David Tannenbaum, Eric Luis Uhlmann & Daniel Diermeier
Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, forthcoming
Abstract:
Public outrage is often triggered by "immaterially" harmful acts (i.e., acts with relatively negligible consequences). A well-known example involves corporate salaries and perks: they generate public outrage yet their financial cost is relatively minor. The present research explains this paradox by appealing to a person-centered approach to moral judgment. Strong moral reactions can occur when relatively harmless acts provide highly diagnostic information about moral character. Studies 1a and 1b first demonstrate dissociation between moral evaluations of persons and their actions - although violence toward a human was viewed as a more blameworthy act than violence toward an animal, the latter was viewed as more revealing of bad moral character. Study 2 then shows that person-centered cues directly influence moral judgments - participants preferred to hire a more expensive CEO when the alternative candidate requested a frivolous perk as part of his compensation package, an effect mediated by the informativeness of his request.
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The Value of Remorse: How Drivers' Responses to Police Predict Fines for Speeding
Martin Day & Michael Ross
Law and Human Behavior, June 2011, Pages 221-234
Abstract:
After they stop drivers for exceeding the speed limit, police often have the discretion to alter the penalty. We investigated the degree to which extra-legal factors (apologies and other verbal responses), in addition to speed over the limit, predict ticket costs for speeding. Surveys of speeders were conducted in the U.S. and Canada. The data suggest that what people say to police matters. Participants who reported statements of remorse, e.g., "I'm sorry," received lower fines for speeding. The relation of speeders' responses to ticket costs is discussed from legal and psychological perspectives.
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Do laws affect attitudes? An assessment of the Norwegian prostitution law using longitudinal data
Andreas Kotsadam & Niklas Jakobsson
International Review of Law and Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
The question of whether laws affect attitudes has inspired scholars across many disciplines, but empirical knowledge is sparse. Using longitudinal survey data from Norway and Sweden, collected before and after the implementation of a Norwegian law criminalizing the purchase of sexual services, we assess the short-run effects on attitudes using a difference-in-differences approach. In the general population, the law did not affect moral attitudes toward prostitution. However, in the Norwegian capital, where prostitution was more visible before the reform, the law made people more negative toward buying sex. This supports the claim that proximity and visibility are important factors for the internalization of legal norms.
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Bernard Harcourt
Journal of Legal Studies, January 2011, Pages 39-83
Abstract:
Previous research suggests that mass incarceration in the United States may have contributed to lower rates of violent crime since the 1990s but, surprisingly, finds no evidence of an effect of imprisonment on violent crime prior to 1991. This raises what Steven Levitt has called "a real puzzle." This study offers the solution to the puzzle: the error in all prior studies is that they focus exclusively on rates of imprisonment, rather than using a measure that combines institutionalization in both prisons and mental hospitals. Using state-level panel-data regressions over the 68-year period from 1934 to 2001 and controlling for economic conditions, youth population rates, criminal justice enforcement, and demographic factors, this study finds a large, robust, and statistically significant relationship between aggregated institutionalization (in mental hospitals and prisons) and homicide rates, providing strong evidence of what should now be called an institutionalization effect - rather than, more simply but inaccurately, an imprisonment or incapacitation effect.
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Examining the Role of Interrogative Suggestibility in Miranda Rights Comprehension in Adolescents
Kaitlyn McLachlan, Ronald Roesch & Kevin Douglas
Law and Human Behavior, June 2011, Pages 165-177
Abstract:
This study aimed to further clarify the association between interrogative suggestibility and Miranda rights comprehension in adolescents; in particular, we examined whether intellectual ability (IQ) serves as a mediator of this relationship. Participants completed Grisso's Miranda Instruments, the Wechsler Abbreviated Scale of Intelligence, and the Gudjonsson Suggestibility Scale. Many youth demonstrated poor comprehension of their rights, particularly younger and less intellectually capable adolescents. Both yield and shift components of interrogative suggestibility were inversely related to rights comprehension; however, IQ fully mediated these relationships. Neither demographic variables (gender, ethnicity, socio-economic status after controlling for IQ, and English as a second language (ESL) status) nor previous police experience were significantly associated with rights comprehension in the present sample. The implications of these findings are discussed.
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The effect of perceived risk and victimization on plans to purchase a gun for self-protection
Gary Kleck et al.
Journal of Criminal Justice, forthcoming
Purposes: To determine if perceived risk of criminal victimization, and past criminal victimization experiences, increases the likelihood of a person owning a gun for self-protection, and to determine if defects in past research concerning the way gun ownership was measured had obscured such effects.
Methods: We analyzed data on over 2,500 U.S. adults, using different ways of measuring gun ownership, and also analyzed future plans (among persons who did not own a gun at the time of the survey) to acquire a gun for self-protection. The latter procedure avoids the causal order problem attributable to the possibility that acquiring a gun might affect victimization risks and perceived risks, as well as the reverse.
Results: The estimated effect of perceived risk and prior victimization changed from being nonsignificant when household gun ownership was the dependent variable (as in most prior research) to being increasingly strong, and statistically significant, when gun ownership of the individual respondent for defensive reasons was measured. Further, once the causal order issue was side-stepped, risk and victimization showed even stronger, significant positive effects on planning to get a gun.
Conclusions: Crime affects gun ownership, in addition to any effects that gun ownership may have on crime.
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Racial/Ethnic Threat and Federal Sentencing
Ben Feldmeyer & Jeffery Ulmer
Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, May 2011, Pages 238-270
Abstract:
This study examines whether federal sentencing decisions are influenced by the racial/ethnic composition of federal court districts. Multilevel models of individual cases within federal judicial districts show that Black defendants receive moderately longer sentences than Whites, and that Hispanics and Whites receive similar sentences. These race/ethnicity effects on sentence length are found to vary across federal districts but not as predicted by racial threat theory. In contrast to racial threat predictions, Black sentence lengths are not significantly conditioned by the district Black population. Contrary to racial threat predictions, Hispanic defendants receive the harshest sentences when they account for the smallest share of the population (1 to 3 percent) and the most lenient sentences when they make up more sizable shares of district populations (more than 27 percent). Our results indicate that racial threat theory provides an inadequate explanation of how social contexts influence the federal sentencing of Blacks and Hispanics.
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Can Additional Resources Lead to Higher Levels of Productivity (Arrests) in Police Agencies?
Jihong Solomon Zhao, Yang Zhang & Quint Thurman
Criminal Justice Review, June 2011, Pages 165-182
Abstract:
While most police chiefs might be willing to make such a claim that there is a positive relationship between COPS grants and police arrests, empirical research on this topic is very limited. Following from an earlier study by Zhao, Scheider, and Thurman (2003), this research makes several contributions to the current literature. First, it includes additional years of data from police agencies receiving federal funding to examine the effects of additional resources on arrests. Second, making use of the two waves of census data (1990 and 2000) allowed time-varying analysis of the relationship between police arrests and demographics. Finally, a hierarchical statistical method for longitudinal analysis (HMLM) was used in the analysis of police arrest data from 5,871 cities during 1993 and 2000 when the involvement of federal government for promoting community policing or quality of life policing was unprecedented. Our primary findings suggest a positive relationship between COPS hiring grants and all four types of police arrests during the period of study though COPS funding usually accounted for only a small percentage of the total budget in a police department (GAO, 2005). More specifically, the hiring grant, the largest part of the COPS funding project, had consistently significant impact on police arrests after controlling for the socioeconomic variables and crimes. In addition, the hiring grant was significant predictor of all four categories of arrests, indicating that additional manpower did have a direct casual relationship with number of police arrests.
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Low-Income Housing Development and Crime
Matthew Freedman & Emily Owens
Journal of Urban Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
This paper examines the effect of rental housing development subsidized by the federal government's Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) program on local crime. Under the LIHTC program, certain high-poverty census tracts receive Qualified Census Tract (QCT) status, which affects the size of the tax credits developers receive for building low-income housing. Changes in federal rules determining QCT status generate quasi-experimental variation in the location of LIHTC projects. Exploiting this variation, we find that low-income housing development in the poorest neighborhoods brings with it significant reductions in violent crime that are measurable at the county level. There are no detectable effects on property crime.
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A Geospatial Analysis of the Impact of Sex Offender Residency Restrictions in Two New York Counties
Jacqueline Berenson & Paul Appelbaum
Law and Human Behavior, June 2011, Pages 235-246
Abstract:
The efficacy of sex offender residence restriction laws in enhancing public safety is controversial and further complicated by evidence that adverse collateral effects may negate or even outweigh whatever benefits they achieve. Based on the theory of "distance decay" that postulates that offenders are more likely to recidivate closer to home, the statutes seek to distance offenders from potential child victims. However, to the extent that such statutes preclude residence in large portions of covered jurisdictions, it has been argued that they contribute to social instability, relegation of offenders to rural or undesirable locations, and even homelessness. A small number of studies have demonstrated the impact of restrictions on residential availability and compliance with the laws, but methodologic issues make it difficult to compare findings. This study uses parcel geocoding, a computerized mapping method, to examine the impact of the sex offender residency restrictions enacted in Erie and Schenectady Counties, NY. Identification and mapping of restricted locations revealed that in nonurban areas, available residential locations were drastically reduced by the restrictions (89.46% and 73.16% restricted in the two counties) and in urban areas almost completely eliminated (95.45% and 97.21%). Unexpectedly, however, when the registered sex offenders in each county were matched to their addresses in the state database, analysis revealed that residence restrictions had no demonstrable effect on where offenders live. More than 85% of offenders in each of the counties were found living in the urban centers, the vast majority of whom (91.89% and 100%) were matched to addresses in restricted locations. These findings may have important policy and procedural implications in the creation and enforcement of sex offender statutes, as well as in the evaluation of those presently in place.
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Sex offender punishment and the persistence of penal harm in the U.S.
Chrysanthi Leon
International Journal of Law and Psychiatry, forthcoming
Abstract:
The U.S. has dramatically revised its approach to punishment in the last several decades. In particular, people convicted of sex crimes have experienced a remarkable expansion in social control through a wide-range of post-conviction interventions. While this expansion may be largely explained by general punishment trends, there appear to be unique factors that have prevented other penal reforms from similarly modulating sex offender punishment. In part, this continuation of a "penal harm" approach to sex offenders relates to the past under-valuing of sexual victimization. In the "bad old days," the law and its agents sent mixed messages about sexual violence and sexual offending. Some sexual offending was mere nuisance, some was treatable, and a fraction "deserved" punishment equivalent to other serious criminal offending. In contrast, today's sex offender punishment schemes rarely distinguish formally among gradations of harm or dangerousness. After examining incarceration trends, this article explores the historical context of the current broad brush approach and reviews the unintended consequences. Altogether, this article reinforces the need to return to differentiation among sex offenders, but differentiation based on science and on the experience-based, guided discretion of experts in law enforcement, corrections, and treatment.
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Low-Skill Employment Opportunity and African American-White Difference in Recidivism
Paul Bellair & Brian Kowalski
Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, May 2011, Pages 176-208
Abstract:
Previous contextual analyses of recidivism are limited by a focus on traditional disadvantage indicators. The authors examine whether those indicators, including poverty, family composition, high school dropout, and unemployment explain disproportionate involvement in serious criminal recidivism among African American relative to White ex-prisoners. Given the fundamental necessity of finding employment after release, the authors move beyond traditional measures and investigate the availability of low-skill employment opportunity in the industries that prior research suggests are most likely to hire ex-prisoners (retail and manufacturing). To address the issue, the authors collected and geo-coded data for a representative sample of 1,568 Ohio ex-prisoners released on community supervision during the first six months of 1999. Contextual analysis reveals that race difference in serious recidivism is explained by low-skill employment opportunity in manufacturing and that it is contingent on levels of neighborhood disadvantage and unemployment.
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Mark Kleiman & Lowry Heussler
Journal of Criminal Justice, forthcoming
Objective: To identify changes in drug abuse control measures that would reduce non-drug crime.
Method: Policy analysis.
Results: Expanding current anti-drug efforts in the conventional triad of enforcement, prevention, and treatment (including drug courts) holds out little hope of reducing non-drug crime. Routine drug law enforcement risks increasing crime by raising drug prices and creating incentives for violence among dealers. Low-arrest crackdowns to break up flagrant markets promise better results. Even good prevention programs have modest effect sizes, and most prevention programs are not based on proven models. The overlap between the population of heavy illicit drug users and the population of frequent non-drug offenders presents a problem and a policy opportunity that current programs largely fail to grasp. Drug treatment, except for opiate substitution, has difficulty recruiting and retaining clients, and weak sanctions systems render treatment mandates largely nominal. Abstinence-mandate programs such as HOPE and Sobriety 24/7 have shown superior results in reducing re-offending and incarceration. Raising alcohol taxes reduces heavy alcohol use and crime due to intoxication without generating any offsetting criminogenic effects.
Conclusion: Current drug policies are not optimally designed for the control of non-drug crime. Improvements are within relatively easy reach.
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Gender, fear of crime, and self-presentation: An experimental investigation
Robbie Sutton, Beverley Robinson & Stephen Farrall
Psychology, Crime & Law, Summer 2011, Pages 421-433
Abstract:
The authors investigate gendered norms associated with the fear of crime. A sample of 100 men and women in a British market town completed a fear of crime survey having been instructed either to be 'totally honest and accurate', or to respond in a way that portrays them 'in the best possible light' ('fake good'). Men asked to 'fake good' reported less fear than men asked to respond honestly. This result is consistent with theories of masculinity that emphasize the importance of emotional invulnerability and self-sufficiency. In contrast, women asked to 'fake good' tended to report more fear than those asked to respond honestly. This result extends theories of how fear of crime curtails women's freedoms. Specifically, the fear of crime may be a prescriptive gendered norm in its own right, causing women (and men) to feel that their expressed fear is a yardstick by which they might be judged.
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The Crime Reducing Effect of Education
Stephen Machin, Olivier Marie & Sunčica Vujić
Economic Journal, May 2011, Pages 463-484
Abstract:
In this article, we study the crime reducing potential of education, presenting causal statistical estimates based upon a law that changed the compulsory school leaving age in England and Wales. We frame the analysis in a regression-discontinuity setting and uncover significant decreases in property crime from reductions in the proportion of people with no educational qualifications and increases in the age of leaving school that resulted from the change in the law. The findings show that improving education can yield significant social benefits and can be a key policy tool in the drive to reduce crime.
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Deterrence Theory and the Implementation of Speed Limits in the American States
Mark Ritchey & Sean Nicholson-Crotty
Policy Studies Journal, May 2011, Pages 329-346
Abstract:
Despite the ubiquitous nature of these policies, there is disagreement in the literature regarding the direction and size of the impact that speed limits have on traffic-related fatalities. We argue in this paper that the mixed results in previous work may arise because these studies have missed an important component of the implementation of speed limit laws. More explicitly, they have failed to adequately control for the deterrent effect of enforcement and sanctions. We develop the argument that the observed impacts of speed limits will be overly large when the certainty and severity of punishment are not accounted for. We test this assertion in a cross-sectional time series analysis of state-level traffic fatalities from the years 1990-2006 and find that lower speeds do save a significant number of lives. Interestingly, we find that the impact is significantly overestimated for 65-mph limits and significantly underestimated for 70-mph limits when enforcement, penalties, and the interaction of the two are excluded. The results also suggest that fines have a rather modest impact on fatalities unless states employ a sufficient number of troopers to enforce posted limits. In addition to clarifying previous findings related to speed limit policy, therefore, the findings contribute to the general application of deterrence theory by empirically confirming that the importance of sanction severity is dependent on the perceived certainty of punishment.
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Making Space for Crime: A Spatial Analysis of Criminal Competition
Gregory DeAngelo
Regional Science and Urban Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
This paper utilizes a spatial competition model to analyze criminal activity. Criminals are heterogeneous in their cost of providing illegal goods and compete by choosing a location and a price for the distribution of the illegal goods to clients. The locational choice of criminals and law enforcement technology are permitted to interact and the spatial equilibrium of criminals is determined. A particularly striking finding is that an increase in law enforcement effort can increase the market share of criminals by forcing low productivity criminals out of the market, thereby allowing fewer criminals to serve the inelastic demands of the illegal goods market.
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Searching for Contraband: Assessing the Use of Discretion by Police Officers
Rob Tillyer & Charles Klahm
Police Quarterly, June 2011, Pages 166-185
Abstract:
Over the past 50 years, research on criminal justice decision making has consistently explored the use of discretion by police officers.The general theme of this research has been to argue for limiting officer discretion based on concerns that minority citizens receive unequal and unjustified treatment due to unbridled discretion. A contrasting position suggests that officer discretion may be helpful in achieving effective and efficient outcomes. We explore this debate by empirically assessing the contraband seizure rates generated from mandatory and discretionary searches during officer-initiated traffic stops within a municipal jurisdiction. The findings indicate that Black citizens are twice as likely as White citizens to be discovered with contraband during discretionary searches, but not during mandatory searches. Implications for policy and future research are discussed.
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Selective Responses to Threat: The Roles of Race and Gender in Decisions to Shoot
Ashby Plant, Joanna Goplen & Jonathan Kunstman
Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, forthcoming
Abstract:
Extensive work over the past decade has shown that race can bias perceptions and responses to threat. However, the previous work focused almost exclusively on responses to men and overlooked how gender and the interaction of race and gender influence decisions regarding use of force. In the current article, two studies examine the implications of gender (Study 1) and both race and gender (Study 2) for decisions to shoot criminal suspects on a computerized simulation. In Study 1, participants were biased away from shooting White female suspects compared to White male suspects. In Study 2, White participants showed a pronounced bias toward shooting Black men but a bias away from shooting Black women and White ingroup members, providing evidence of a behavioral threat-related response specific to outgroup men stereotypically associated with aggression. The theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed.
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Broken Windows or Window Breakers: The Influence of Physical and Social Disorder on Quality of Life
Allison Chappell, Elizabeth Monk-Turner & Brian Payne
Justice Quarterly, May/June 2011, Pages 522-540
Abstract:
The relationship between neighborhood disorder and fear of crime is well established. According to Wilson and Kelling's broken windows theory, physical and social disorder lead to fear and cause citizens to retreat into their homes. This breaks down informal social control mechanisms and may lead to more serious crime. Insofar as fear is related to quality of life, an implication of broken windows theory is that disorder may impact quality of life, but that relationship has not yet been examined in the research literature. The present study seeks to fill a void in the literature by investigating the relationship between neighborhood disorder and quality of life. Results indicate that disorder is related to quality of life. In particular, physical disorder is negatively associated with quality of life, but social disorder loses significance when controlling for physical disorder. Policy implications of the findings and direction for future research are discussed.
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Risks and Benefits of a Gun in the Home
David Hemenway
American Journal of Lifestyle Medicine, forthcoming
Abstract:
This article summarizes the scientific literature on the health risks and benefits of having a gun in the home for the gun owner and his/her family. For most contemporary Americans, scientific studies indicate that the health risk of a gun in the home is greater than the benefit. The evidence is overwhelming for the fact that a gun in the home is a risk factor for completed suicide and that gun accidents are most likely to occur in homes with guns. There is compelling evidence that a gun in the home is a risk factor for intimidation and for killing women in their homes. On the benefit side, there are fewer studies, and there is no credible evidence of a deterrent effect of firearms or that a gun in the home reduces the likelihood or severity of injury during an altercation or break-in. Thus, groups such as the American Academy of Pediatrics urge parents not to have guns in the home.