Election Tally
"Stop the Count!" — How Reporting Partial Election Results Fuels Beliefs in Election Fraud
André Vaz et al.
Psychological Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
In seven studies, we investigated how reporting partial vote counts influences perceptions of election legitimacy. Beliefs in election fraud, as in the 2020 U.S. presidential election, may be fueled by the cumulative redundancy bias (CRB), which skews perceptions toward early leaders in partial vote counts. In line with this prediction, participants (Prolific adult participants from the United States and the United Kingdom) consistently rated early leaders more favorably and were more likely to suspect fraud when the eventual winner gained a late lead. This effect persisted across simulated elections (Studies 1–3) and real-world vote counts from the 2020 election in Georgia (Study 4). It is important to note that fraud suspicions already arose before the count was completed (Study 5) and persisted despite explanatory interventions (Study 6). Partisanship did not eliminate the CRB’s influence on fraud beliefs (Study 7). Our findings suggest that the sequential reporting of vote counts may amplify false perceptions of election fraud and could be mitigated by revising how results are communicated.
Legislating Uncertainty: Election Policies and the Amplification of Misinformation
Morgan Wack et al.
Policy Studies Journal, forthcoming
Abstract:
Can state election policies affect the spread of misinformation? This paper studies the role played by ballot processing policies, which determine when ballots can be examined and organized, in the online spread of political misinformation. We present evidence from the 2020 U.S. presidential election cycle linking the spread of misinformation in the aftermath of the election to the uncertainty created by these restrictions. Specifically, using a novel dataset of 317 misinformation stories constructed using over 4,700,000 posts collected in real-time throughout the 2020 electoral period, we examine whether restrictions on the ability of election officials to process ballots corresponded with increases in the prevalence of misinformation on X/Twitter. We find that, relative to states with restrictions, states that allowed ballots to be processed in advance of the election were subjected to fewer misinformation stories. The results suggest that policymakers interested in limiting the amount of misinformation targeting their state institutions should remove barriers to pre-election ballot processing.
Throwing Away the Umbrella: Minority Voting after the Supreme Court's Shelby Decision
Mayya Komisarchik & Ariel White
Quarterly Journal of Political Science, April 2025, Pages 269-305
Abstract:
The Supreme Court's 2013 decision in Shelby County v. Holder dramatically changed the Voting Rights Act, ending the "preclearance" process that had required federal approval before places with a history of discrimination changed their voting procedures. Dissenting justices and voting-rights advocates feared the decision could allow changes to election administration that would suppress minority voter participation. This paper evaluates the decision's impact on election practices and on voting. Shelby yielded decisive changes in some practices that had been constrained by preclearance (voter identification laws), though evidence on potential indirect changes to election administration is mixed. These bounded changes to election practices do not appear to have translated into a degradation of minority voter participation or power over the period studied. Using administrative data and a difference-in-differences design comparing places affected and unaffected by the court's decision, we find minimal changes in Black-white voting gaps in the post-Shelby period; further analyses indicate that voter participation was generally stable or potentially increasing in previously covered places.
Breaking New Ground: Field Office Strategies in the 2024 Presidential Election
Sean Whyard & Joshua Darr
Presidential Studies Quarterly, September 2025
Abstract:
In 2020, Joe Biden won the election without opening field offices, raising questions about the future of in-person organizing. We use original data on the 2024 election to show that field offices, which coordinate voter outreach and mobilization activities, returned -- albeit in a more limited capacity than in previous contests. Both the Donald Trump and Kamala Harris campaigns dramatically reduced their investments in physical field offices relative to 2008, 2012, and 2016, instead opting for a campaign strategy more heavily reliant on mass media and digital engagement. Analyses of the determinants of field office placement reveal notable departures from prior cycles. As opposed to Obama and Clinton, Harris was not likely to place offices in battleground states. The partisan trend of a county, as measured by the Republican normal vote variable, did not predict field office placement in 2024, a distinction from years past. Harris prioritized core Democratic counties while Trump focused more on swing counties, a trend that is consistent with past research. Finally, Trump was more likely to establish offices in swing counties where Harris had a presence, while Harris avoided placing offices in counties where Trump had already invested. We conclude by discussing the implications of these decisions for the future of the field.
Pay the Voter: A Legal, Economic, and Policy Analysis of Financially Incentivizing Political Participation
Andrew Albright
California Law Review, June 2025, Pages 801-846
Abstract:
This Note explores the idea of paying Americans to cast their ballots as a mechanism to increase electoral participation among lower income voters and rebalance the influence that wealthy Americans have on policy outcomes. The Note begins by exploring the rationale behind the idea, drawing on political science, economic, and legal literature to argue that subsidizing the franchise could help rebalance elected officials' perception of the "median voter" away from the wealthy. The Note hypothesizes that a small dollar incentive, perhaps no more than $20, paid in a municipal election would have a greater incentivizing effect on low-propensity, low-income voters than it would on higher-income voters. Next, the Note explores the legality and constitutionality of paying the voter. When President Johnson signed the Voting Rights Act, vote buying became illegal across the United States. Nevertheless, this Note argues that, based on the legislative history of the Act, a government program to incentivize voting would be legal under federal law. Further, neither the First nor the Fourteenth Amendment poses a barrier to such a program, and a local government in California could enact such a program without violating state law. Finally, the Note explores policy design, proposing that policymakers should begin in a local government, provide direct and highly visible subsidies, and allow voters who cast blank ballots to collect a subsidy.
Success Denied: Social Class and Perceptions of Political Success
Daniel Devine, Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte & Matt Ryan
Legislative Studies Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
The working class are poorly represented in democratic institutions across the world, despite substantial evidence that the public do not discriminate against working-class candidates and view them more positively across numerous character traits. We propose a novel explanation: a pragmatism bias where working-class individuals are perceived as less likely to achieve political success. We provide experimental evidence that this bias may operate at multiple stages of the political process. We go beyond existing work by using a multidimensional operationalization of class to show that contemporary class has the largest effects on perceived chances of political success. Finally, we show that this cannot be remedied by social mobility, and high-income individuals are more likely to display this belief.
The influence of candidate traits on vice presidential nominee preference
Emma Schroeder & Alejandra Campos
Politics, Groups, and Identities, forthcoming
Abstract:
The selection of Kamala Harris as a vice presidential running mate was historic: she was the first vice presidential nominee selected who was not White and only the third woman. But does a vice presidential nominee's race and/or gender impact voters' preferences? What preferences, if any, do partisans have for the identity of their party's vice presidential nominee? Can these preferences assist presidential nominees in choosing their running mate? In order to determine what preferences voters have for the race and gender of a vice presidential nominee, we conduct an original conjoint experiment that varies relevant traits, such as race and gender, of the vice presidential running mate. We find that respondents do have preferences for their party's vice presidential nominee. However, we find little evidence to suggest that partisans prefer a candidate who shares their race or gender identity. We conclude that voters' vice presidential nominee preferences may be more strategic or ideologically oriented.
The Legislative Success of “Giant Killers” in the U.S. House
Sean Theriault, Jared Hrebenar & Isabel Reyna
Political Research Quarterly, forthcoming
Abstract:
In modern congressional elections, fewer than 10% of candidates who run against sitting members of Congress win and yet they comprise as much as 30% of the House in any given congress. In this paper, we examine the legislative effectiveness of those relatively rare challengers who knock off incumbents. We name them, “Giant Killers,” and find that during the early part of their House careers they are 43% more effective than those who first join the House by winning an open seat. We suspect that the coalition-building skills that a candidate needs to win a difficult race against an incumbent may be similar to and correlated with the coalition-building skills needed to be legislatively successful.
Understanding Voter Fatigue: Election Frequency and Electoral Abstention Approval
Filip Kostelka
British Journal of Political Science, June 2025
Abstract:
The existing literature shows that frequent elections depress electoral participation and contribute to the global decline in voter turnout. However, the causal mechanisms remain unclear. This paper investigates the sources of voter fatigue and hypothesizes that frequent elections make electoral abstention more acceptable to citizens. It tests the main hypothesis via an original pre-registered survey experiment fielded in five countries with a total sample size of 12,221 respondents. The results provide pioneering evidence on the psychological effects of election frequency. They confirm that high election frequency increases the social acceptability of electoral abstention and that this effect is proportional to the number of past elections. It can be equally observed among all major social groups, including politically engaged citizens and those who believe that voting is a civic duty. These findings hold major implications for our understanding of voter turnout and democratic institutional engineering.