Dumb but not Stupid
Bidding fever in eBay auctions of Amazon.com gift certificates
Matthew Jones
Economics Letters, forthcoming
Abstract:
In a set of eBay auctions of Amazon.com gift certificates, 41.1% of winning prices exceed face value, which is an observable upper bound for rational bidding because Amazon.com sells certificates at face value. Alternative interpretations to bidding fever are explored.
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Market Sentiment: A Tragedy of the Commons
Tarek Hassan & Thomas Mertens
American Economic Review, May 2011, Pages 402-405
Abstract:
We present a model in which investors decide whether or to what degree they want to allow their behavior to be influenced by "market sentiment." Investors who choose to insulate their decisions from market sentiment earn higher expected returns, but incur a small mental cost. We show that if information is moderately dispersed across investors, even a very small mental cost may result in a significant amount of sentiment in equilibrium: Individuals who choose to be swayed by sentiment increase uncertainty about the future and make it less costly for others to be swayed by sentiment as well.
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Eric Schulz, Edward Cokely & Adam Feltz
Consciousness and Cognition, forthcoming
Abstract:
Many philosophers appeal to intuitions to support some philosophical views. However, there is reason to be concerned about this practice as scientific evidence has documented systematic bias in philosophically relevant intuitions as a function of seemingly irrelevant features (e.g., personality). One popular defense used to insulate philosophers from these concerns holds that philosophical expertise eliminates the influence of these extraneous factors. Here, we test this assumption. We present data suggesting that verifiable philosophical expertise in the free will debate - as measured by a reliable and validated test of expert knowledge - does not eliminate the influence of one important extraneous feature (i.e., the heritable personality trait extraversion) on judgments concerning freedom and moral responsibility. These results suggest that, in at least some important cases, the expertise defense fails. Implications for the practice of philosophy, experimental philosophy, and applied ethics are discussed.
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Heuristic Thinking and Limited Attention in the Car Market
Nicola Lacetera, Devin Pope & Justin Sydnor
NBER Working Paper, May 2011
Abstract:
Can heuristic information processing affect important product markets? We explore whether the tendency to focus on the left-most digit of a number affects how used car buyers incorporate odometer values in their purchase decisions. Analyzing over 22 million wholesale used-car transactions, we find substantial evidence of this left-digit bias; there are large and discontinuous drops in sale prices at 10,000-mile thresholds in odometer mileage, along with smaller drops at 1,000-mile thresholds. We obtain estimates for the inattention parameter in a simple model of this left-digit bias. We also investigate whether this heuristic behavior is primarily attributable to the final used-car customers or the used-car salesmen who buy cars in the wholesale market. The evidence is most consistent with partial inattention by final customers. We discuss the significance of these results for the literature on inattention and point to other market settings where this type of heuristic thinking may be important. Our results suggest that information-processing heuristics may be important even in markets with large stakes and where information is easy to observe.
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Markus Appel
Media Psychology, Spring 2011, Pages 144-167
Abstract:
Media priming refers to the residual, often unintended consequences of media use on subsequent perceptions, judgments, and behavior. Previous research showed that the media can prime behavior that is in line with the primed traits or concepts (assimilation). However, assimilation is expected to be less likely and priming may even yield reverse effects (contrast) when recipients have a dissimilarity testing mindset. Based on previous research on narrative comprehension and experience as well as research on media priming, a short-term influence of stories on cognitive performance is predicted. In an experimental study, participants (N = 81) read a story about a stupid soccer hooligan. As expected, participants who read the story without a special processing instruction performed worse in a knowledge test than a control group who read an unrelated text. Participants with a reading goal instruction to find dissimilarities between the self and the main protagonist performed better than participants who read the story without this instruction. The effects of reported self-activation and story length were further considered. Future inquiries with narratives as primes and contrast effects in media effects research are discussed.
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A Bayes factor meta-analysis of Bem's ESP claim
Jeffrey Rouder & Richard Morey
Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, forthcoming
Abstract:
In recent years, statisticians and psychologists have provided the critique that p-values do not capture the evidence afforded by data and are, consequently, ill suited for analysis in scientific endeavors. The issue is particular salient in the assessment of the recent evidence provided for ESP by Bem (2011) in the mainstream Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. Wagenmakers, Wetzels, Borsboom, and van der Maas (Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 100, 426-432, 2011) have provided an alternative Bayes factor assessment of Bem's data, but their assessment was limited to examining each experiment in isolation. We show here that the variant of the Bayes factor employed by Wagenmakers et al. is inappropriate for making assessments across multiple experiments, and cannot be used to gain an accurate assessment of the total evidence in Bem's data. We develop a meta-analytic Bayes factor that describes how researchers should update their prior beliefs about the odds of hypotheses in light of data across several experiments. We find that the evidence that people can feel the future with neutral and erotic stimuli to be slight, with Bayes factors of 3.23 and 1.57, respectively. There is some evidence, however, for the hypothesis that people can feel the future with emotionally valenced nonerotic stimuli, with a Bayes factor of about 40. Although this value is certainly noteworthy, we believe it is orders of magnitude lower than what is required to overcome appropriate skepticism of ESP.
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Cognitive Advantages of Chewing Gum: Now You See Them, Now You Don't
Serge Onyper et al.
Appetite, forthcoming
Abstract:
The current series of experiments investigated the effects of the timing of gum chewing on cognitive function, by administering a battery of cognitive tasks to participants who chewed gum either prior to or throughout testing, and comparing their performance to that of controls who did not chew gum. Chewing gum was associated with performance advantages on multiple measures when gum was chewed for 5 minutes before, but not during, cognitive testing. The benefits, however, persisted only for the first 15-20 minutes of the testing session, and did not extend to all cognitive domains. To explain this pattern of results, it is proposed that the time-limited nature of performance benefits can be attributed to mastication-induced arousal. Furthermore, the lack of improvement in cognitive function when gum is chewed throughout testing may be because of interference effects due to a sharing of resources by cognitive and masticatory processes. This dual-process mechanism is not only consistent with the outcome of present experiments but can potentially account for a wide range of findings reported in the literature.
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Cognitive function in the community setting: The neighbourhood as a source of 'cognitive reserve'?
Philippa Clarke et al.
Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health, forthcoming
Background: Existing research has found a positive association between cognitive function and residence in a socioeconomically advantaged neighbourhood. Yet, the mechanisms underlying this relationship have not been empirically investigated.
Objective: To test the hypothesis that neighbourhood socioeconomic structure is related to cognitive function partly through the availability of neighbourhood physical and social resources (eg, recreational facilities, community centres and libraries), which promote cognitively beneficial activities such as exercise and social integration.
Methods: Using data from a representative survey of community-dwelling adults in the city of Chicago (N=949 adults aged 50 and over), cognitive function was assessed with a modified version of the Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status instrument. Neighbourhood socioeconomic structure was derived from US census indicators. Systematic social observation was used to directly document the presence of neighbourhood resources on the blocks surrounding each respondent's residence.
Results: Using multilevel linear regression, residence in an affluent neighbourhood had a net positive effect on cognitive function after adjusting for individual risk factors. For white respondents, the effects of neighbourhood affluence operated in part through a greater density of institutional resources (eg, community centres) that promote cognitively beneficial activities such as physical activity. Stable residence in an elderly neighbourhood was associated with higher cognitive function (potentially due to greater opportunities for social interaction with peers), but long term exposure to such neighbourhoods was negatively related to cognition.
Conclusions: Neighbourhood resources have the potential to promote 'cognitive reserve' for adults who are ageing in place in an urban setting.
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Learning new color names produces rapid increase in gray matter in the intact adult human cortex
Veronica Kwok et al.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 19 April 2011, Pages 6686-6688
Abstract:
The human brain has been shown to exhibit changes in the volume and density of gray matter as a result of training over periods of several weeks or longer. We show that these changes can be induced much faster by using a training method that is claimed to simulate the rapid learning of word meanings by children. Using whole-brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) we show that learning newly defined and named subcategories of the universal categories green and blue in a period of 2 h increases the volume of gray matter in V2/3 of the left visual cortex, a region known to mediate color vision. This pattern of findings demonstrates that the anatomical structure of the adult human brain can change very quickly, specifically during the acquisition of new, named categories. Also, prior behavioral and neuroimaging research has shown that differences between languages in the boundaries of named color categories influence the categorical perception of color, as assessed by judgments of relative similarity, by response time in alternative forced-choice tasks, and by visual search. Moreover, further behavioral studies (visual search) and brain imaging studies have suggested strongly that the categorical effect of language on color processing is left-lateralized, i.e., mediated by activity in the left cerebral hemisphere in adults (hence "lateralized Whorfian" effects). The present results appear to provide a structural basis in the brain for the behavioral and neurophysiologically observed indices of these Whorfian effects on color processing.
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A subtle threat cue, heart rate variability, and cognitive performance
Andrew Elliot et al.
Psychophysiology, forthcoming
Abstract:
This research was designed to extend the literature on heart rate variability (HRV) in cognitive performance contexts by examining whether a subtle threat cue (the color red) in a test environment influences HRV reactivity and whether HRV reactivity is associated with change in cognitive performance. Thirty-three participants took an IQ test, briefly viewed red or a chromatic or achromatic control color, and then took a parallel form of the IQ test. High frequency (HF)-HRV (often referred to as respiratory sinus arrhythmia), was assessed before and after the color manipulation. Results indicated that participants who viewed red (relative to a control color) exhibited a decrease in HF-HRV and that decreased HF-HRV was associated with worse IQ performance. These findings demonstrate the sensitivity of HRV as an index of effective and efficient emotion regulation in an achievement context.
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Use it or lose it: How neurogenesis keeps the brain fit for learning
T.J. Shors et al.
Behavioural Brain Research, forthcoming
Abstract:
The presence of new neurons in the adult hippocampus indicates that this structure incorporates new neurons into its circuitry and uses them for some function related to learning and/or related thought processes. Their generation depends on a variety of factors ranging from age to aerobic exercise to sexual behavior to alcohol consumption. However, most of the cells will die unless the animal engages in some kind of effortful learning experience when the cells are about one week of age. If learning does occur, the new cells become incorporated into brain circuits used for learning. In turn, some processes of learning and mental activity appear to depend on their presence. In this review, we discuss the now rather extensive literature showing that new neurons are kept alive by effortful learning, a process that involves concentration in the present moment of experience over some extended period of time. As these thought processes occur, endogenous patterns of rhythmic electrophysiological activity engage the new cells with cell networks that already exist in the hippocampus and at efferent locations. Concurrent and synchronous activity provides a mechanism whereby the new neurons become integrated with the other neurons. This integration allows the present experience to become integrated with memories from the recent past in order to learn and predict when events will occur in the near future. In this way, neurogenesis and learning interact to maintain a fit brain.
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Friederike Dislich et al.
European Journal of Personality, forthcoming
Abstract:
Three studies investigated the correspondence between implicit and explicit self-concepts of intelligence and how that correspondence is related to performance on different intelligence tests. Configurations of these two self-concepts were found to be consistently related to performance on intelligence tests in all three studies. For individuals who self-reported high intelligence (high explicit self-concept), a negative implicit self-concept (measured with the Implicit Association Test) led to a decrease in performance on intelligence tests. For participants whose self-report indicated a low self-concept of intelligence, positive automatic associations between the self and intelligence had a similar effect. In line with a stress hypothesis, the results indicate that any discrepant configuration of self-concepts will impair performance. Importantly, the prediction of performance on intelligence tests by the self-concept of intelligence was shown to be independent of self-esteem (Study 3).
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The effects of an afterschool physical activity program on working memory in preadolescent children
Keita Kamijo et al.
Developmental Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
The present study examined the effects of a 9-month randomized control physical activity intervention aimed at improving cardiorespiratory fitness on changes in working memory performance in preadolescent children relative to a waitlist control group. Participants performed a modified Sternberg task, which manipulated working memory demands based on encoding set sizes, while task performance and the contingent negative variation (CNV) event-related brain potential were measured. Analyses revealed that the physical activity intervention led to increases in cardiorespiratory fitness and improved Sternberg task performance. Further, the beneficial effects of the physical activity intervention were greater for a task condition requiring greater working memory demands. In addition, the intervention group exhibited larger initial CNV at the frontal electrode site, relative to the waitlist group at post-test; an effect not observed during the pre-test. These results indicate that increases in cardiorespiratory fitness are associated with improvements in the cognitive control of working memory in preadolescent children.
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Executive Functioning and Delay Discounting of Four Different Outcomes in University Students
Jeffrey Weatherly & Richard Ferraro
Personality and Individual Differences, July 2011, Pages 183-187
Abstract:
The study investigated a potential relationship between level of executive functioning and rates of delay discounting (i.e., the subjective decrease in the value of an outcome if its delivery is delayed). University students completed an executive-functioning questionnaire and then a delay-discounting task involving four different outcomes (money, cigarettes, dating partner, body image). Results showed that the overall measure of executive functioning was a significant predictor of rates of discounting of three of the four outcomes, and approached significance for the fourth outcome. Further, different subscales of executive functioning were significantly correlated with discounting of different outcomes. These results suggest that executive functioning plays a role in discounting of delayed outcomes and that procedures designed to affect either executive function or delay discounting might result in concomitant changes in the other measure.
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Role of test motivation in intelligence testing
Angela Lee Duckworth et al.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10 May 2011, Pages 7716-7720
Abstract:
Intelligence tests are widely assumed to measure maximal intellectual performance, and predictive associations between intelligence quotient (IQ) scores and later-life outcomes are typically interpreted as unbiased estimates of the effect of intellectual ability on academic, professional, and social life outcomes. The current investigation critically examines these assumptions and finds evidence against both. First, we examined whether motivation is less than maximal on intelligence tests administered in the context of low-stakes research situations. Specifically, we completed a meta-analysis of random-assignment experiments testing the effects of material incentives on intelligence-test performance on a collective 2,008 participants. Incentives increased IQ scores by an average of 0.64 SD, with larger effects for individuals with lower baseline IQ scores. Second, we tested whether individual differences in motivation during IQ testing can spuriously inflate the predictive validity of intelligence for life outcomes. Trained observers rated test motivation among 251 adolescent boys completing intelligence tests using a 15-min "thin-slice" video sample. IQ score predicted life outcomes, including academic performance in adolescence and criminal convictions, employment, and years of education in early adulthood. After adjusting for the influence of test motivation, however, the predictive validity of intelligence for life outcomes was significantly diminished, particularly for nonacademic outcomes. Collectively, our findings suggest that, under low-stakes research conditions, some individuals try harder than others, and, in this context, test motivation can act as a third-variable confound that inflates estimates of the predictive validity of intelligence for life outcomes.
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Reducing cognitive biases in probabilistic reasoning by the use of logarithm formats
Peter Juslin et al.
Cognition, forthcoming
Abstract:
Research on probability judgment has traditionally emphasized that people are susceptible to biases because they rely on "variable substitution": the assessment of normative variables is replaced by assessment of heuristic, subjective variables. A recent proposal is that many of these biases may rather derive from constraints on cognitive integration, where the capacity-limited and sequential nature of controlled judgment promotes linear additive integration, in contrast to many integration rules of probability theory (Juslin, Nilsson, & Winman, 2009). A key implication by this theory is that it should be possible to improve peoples' probabilistic reasoning by changing probability problems into logarithm formats that require additive rather than multiplicative integration. Three experiments demonstrate that recasting tasks in a way that allows people to arrive at the answers by additive integration decreases cognitive biases, and while people can rapidly learn to produce the correct answers in an additive formats, they have great difficulty doing so with a multiplicative format.
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Mitigating disruptive effects of interruptions through training: What needs to be practiced?
David Cades et al.
Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, forthcoming
Abstract:
It is generally accepted that, with practice, people improve on most tasks. However, when tasks have multiple parts, it is not always clear what aspects of the tasks practice or training should focus on. This research explores the features that allow training to improve the ability to resume a task after an interruption, specifically focusing on task-specific versus general interruption/resumption-process mechanisms that could account for improved performance. Three experiments using multiple combinations of primary tasks and interruptions were conducted with undergraduate psychology students. The first experiment showed that for one primary and interruption task-pair, people were able to resume the primary task faster when they had previous practice with the interruption. The second experiment replicated this finding for two other sets of primary and interruption task-pairs. Finally, the third experiment showed that people were able to resume a primary task faster only when they had previous practice with that specific primary and interruption task-pair. Experience with other primary and interruption task-pairs, or practice on the primary task alone, did not facilitate resumption. This suggests that a critical component in resuming after an interruption is the relationship between two tasks. These findings are in line with a task-specific mechanism of resumption and incompatible with a general-process mechanism. These findings have practical implications for developing training programs and mitigation strategies to lessen the disruptive effects of interruptions which plague both our personal and professional environments.
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Sunk cost: Pigeons (Columba livia), too, show bias to complete a task rather than shift to another
Kristina Pattison, Thomas Zentall & Shigeru Watanabe
Journal of Comparative Psychology, forthcoming
Abstract:
The sunk cost effect involves the bias to stay with an alternative because one has already invested resources, even when there is a better alternative available. In a series of experiments, at various points during a 30-peck requirement, pigeons (Columba livia) could choose between completing the response requirement (at a different location in Experiment 1 or the same location in Experiments 3 and 4) and switching to a constant number of pecks. In three experiments, the pigeons showed a bias to complete the pecks already started, even when that required more pecking. We also demonstrated that the bias depended on the initial investment and was not produced merely because the pigeons preferred a variable alternative over a fixed alternative. The deviation from optimal choice suggests that pigeons show a bias similar to the sunk cost effect in humans.
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Attending to music decreases inattentional blindness
Vanessa Beanland, Rosemary Allen & Kristen Pammer
Consciousness and Cognition, forthcoming
Abstract:
This article investigates how auditory attention affects inattentional blindness (IB), a failure of conscious awareness in which an observer does not notice an unexpected event because their attention is engaged elsewhere. Previous research using the attentional blink paradigm has indicated that listening to music can reduce failures of conscious awareness. It was proposed that listening to music would decrease IB by reducing observers' frequency of task-unrelated thoughts (TUTs). Observers completed an IB task that varied both visual and auditory demands. Listening to music was associated with significantly lower IB, but only when observers actively attended to the music. Follow-up experiments suggest this was due to the distracting qualities of the audio task. The results also suggest a complex relationship between IB and TUTs: during demanding tasks, as predicted, noticers of the unexpected stimulus reported fewer TUTs than non-noticers. During less demanding tasks, however, noticers reported more TUTs than non-noticers.