Chance Weather
Cities and the sea level
Yatang Lin, Thomas McDermott & Guy Michaels
Journal of Urban Economics, September 2024
Abstract:
Construction on low elevation coastal zones is risky for both residents and taxpayers who bail them out. To investigate this construction, we analyze spatially disaggregated data covering the entire US Atlantic and Gulf coasts. We find that the 1990 housing stock reflects historical avoidance of locations prone to sea level rise (SLR) and flooding, but net new construction from 1990–2010 was similar in SLR-prone locations and safer ones; and within densely built coastal areas, net new construction was higher in SLR-prone locations. These findings are difficult to rationalize as mere products of moral hazard or imperfect information, suggesting that people build on risky locations to benefit from nearby urban agglomerations. To explain our findings, we develop a simple model of a monocentric coastal city, which we use to explore the consequences of sea level rise. This model helps explain cities’ role in expanding flood risks, and how future sea level rise may reshape coastal cities, creating significant challenges for policymakers.
Growing deviations between elite and non-elite media coverage of climate change in the United States
Parker Bolstad & David Victor
Climatic Change, June 2024
Abstract:
Empirical research aimed at understanding public awareness and opinion on climate change has focused heavily on media coverage. Nearly all prior media studies focus on the United States and on a small number of elite news sources, notably the national newspapers of record. To widen the aperture, we take advantage of a database (MediaCloud) that covers a much larger array of print and word media: 168 million articles about all subjects, derived from 9000 unique U.S. news sources. Coverage of climate change from the “heartland” sources -- dominated by state and local news outlets far from the headquarters of national newspapers of record -- has risen 144% from 2011 until 2022. Elite news coverage, however, has risen at twice that pace (299%). Over time, the propensity to cover climate change has diverged. In 2011 there were 104 days when the heartland news sources had more coverage of climate change than elite news outlets such as The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. By 2022 there were only 11 such days. That year, elite news outlets produced roughly three times the coverage of climate change as heartland news outlets. We also find some differences in the topics covered by these two categories of news sources. Such disparities in the intensity of attention to climate change, along with apparently more subtle variations in topical coverage, are variations that deserve future explanation. They are also a reminder that analysis of climate coverage should choose data sources with care since the narrative around what the public is learning about climate appears to vary substantially between heartland and elite new sources.
Is Broader Always Better? Preexisting Distortions, Emissions Elasticities, and the Scope of Emissions Pricing
Lawrence Goulder, Marc Hafstead & Roberton Williams
NBER Working Paper, September 2024
Abstract:
Economists often regard broad-based carbon pricing (whether in the form of a carbon tax or cap and trade) as the most efficient policy to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Relative to a narrower policy that exempts some emissions sources, a broader policy is often favored because it can exploit more low-cost emissions reduction opportunities and cause less emissions leakage to uncovered sources. Yet narrower approaches have gained considerable political support, partly because they avoid price increases for outputs (such as gasoline) regarded as especially critical to household budgets. Some analysts might lament any departure from broad carbon pricing, citing efficiency costs. This paper offers theory and numerical simulations revealing that such a shift need not sacrifice efficiency. This result reflects differences across sectors in distortions from preexisting taxes and in the elasticity of emissions with respect to the carbon price. Our analytical model reveals that a narrower policy that exploits these differences can be more cost-effective than a policy with a broad, economy-wide tax base. Our numerical model of the US economy compares quantitatively the effects of an economy-wide carbon price with those of several narrower policies, including one that applies only to the power sector, one that exempts gasoline, and one that exempts energy-intensive trade-exposed industries. We compare policies under alternative specifications for policy stringency and find that the broader policy always becomes more cost-effective at sufficiently high stringency.
Should we change the term we use for “climate change”? Evidence from a national U.S. terminology experiment
Wändi Bruine de Bruin et al.
Climatic Change, August 2024
Abstract:
The terms “global warming,” “climate crisis,” “climate emergency,” and “climate justice” each draw attention to different aspects of climate change. Psychological theories of attitude formation suggest that people’s attitudes can be influenced by such variations in terminology. In a national experiment, we randomly assigned a national sample of 5,137 U.S. residents to “climate change,” “global warming,” “climate crisis,” “climate emergency,” or “climate justice” and examined their responses. Overall, “climate change” and “global warming” were rated as most familiar and most concerning, and “climate justice” the least, with ratings for “climate crisis” and “climate emergency” falling in between. Moreover, we find no evidence for “climate crisis” or “climate emergency” eliciting more perceived urgency than “climate change” or “global warming.” Rated willingness to support climate-friendly policies and eat less red meat were less affected by presented terms, but they were lowest for “climate justice.” Although effects of terms on rated familiarity, concern, and perceived urgency varied by political leaning, “climate justice” generally received the lowest ratings on these variables among Democrats, Republicans, and Independent/others. Auxiliary analyses found that when terms were unfamiliar, participants were generally less likely to express concern, urgency, policy support, or willingness to eat less red meat. We therefore recommend sticking with familiar terms, conclude that changing terminology is likely not the key solution for promoting climate action, and suggest alternative communication strategies.
Foreign Competition and U.S. Facility Emissions: Margins of Adjustment
Sookti Chaudhary, Josh Ederington & Lala Ma
University of Kentucky Working Paper, January 2024
Abstract:
We analyze the effect of rising international competition on pollution emissions of U.S. manufacturing facilities. We first show that regions of the U.S. more exposed to increased Chinese imports during the period 1990 to 2014 also saw large increases in air quality. We then show that this decline in emissions primarily occurred on the extensive margin. Specifically, increased foreign competition led to a disproportionately high rate of exit of dirty firms, not only in more impacted industries, but also in more exposed regions.
Increased Marginal Damages of Air Emissions Following Improvements in Air Quality in the United States
Andrew Goodkind
Environmental and Resource Economics, July 2024, Pages 1761–1782
Abstract:
Between 2002 and 2017, concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) decreased 37% in the United States. Environmental economic theory generally assumes that environmental improvement is associated with a decrease in the marginal damage of emissions. In this case, the marginal damages of PM2.5 precursor emissions (NH3, NOX, primary PM2.5, and SO2) increased substantially. I calculate the change in the marginal damages of emissions between 2002 and 2017, finding increases, on average, of 30% for NH3, 46% for NOX, 61% for primary PM2.5, and 36% for SO2. The increase in marginal damages is especially large in the southeastern United States, with values more than double over this time period. The key factors that influence this change in marginal damages are the shape of the concentration-response (C-R) function that was adopted for these calculations between PM2.5 exposure and mortality (positive effect), the increase in the real value of a statistical life (positive effect), the increased population (positive effect), the aging of the population (positive effect), the decreased age-specific mortality rates (negative effect), and the geographic distribution of emissions (mixed effect). Between 32 and 65% of the increase in marginal damages is attributable to the shape of the C-R function and the decreased concentration of PM2.5. The C-R function adopted here indicates that the marginal effect of concentration reductions is higher at lower concentrations. Thus, at the lower PM2.5 concentrations resulting from improvements over 15 years, there would be a larger reduction in mortality from each additional unit of pollution reduction.
The Nonlinear Effects of Air Pollution on Health: Evidence from Wildfire Smoke
Nolan Miller, David Molitor & Eric Zou
NBER Working Paper, September 2024
Abstract:
We estimate how acute air pollution exposure from wildfire smoke impacts human health in the U.S., allowing for nonlinear effects. Wildfire smoke is pervasive and produces air quality shocks of varying intensity, depending on wind patterns and plume thickness. Using administrative Medicare records for 2007–2019, we estimate that wildfire smoke accounts for 18% of ambient PM2.5 concentrations, 0.42% of deaths, and 0.69% of emergency room visits among adults aged 65 and over. Smaller pollution shocks have outsized health impacts, indicating significant health benefits from improving air quality, even in areas meeting current regulatory standards.
The Social Costs of Keystone Species Collapse: Evidence From The Decline of Vultures in India
Eyal Frank & Anant Sudarshan
American Economic Review, forthcoming
Abstract:
Scientific evidence has documented that we are undergoing a mass extinction of species, caused by human activity. However, allocating conservation resources is difficult due to scarce evidence on damages from losing individual species. This paper studies the collapse of vultures in India, triggered by the expiry of a patent on a painkiller. Our results suggest the functional extinction of vultures -- efficient scavengers who removed carcasses from the environment -- increased human mortality by over 4% because of a large negative shock to sanitation. We quantify damages at $69.4 billion per year. These results suggest high returns to conserving keystone species such as vultures.
Carbon emissions from the 2023 Canadian wildfires
Brendan Byrne et al.
Nature, forthcoming
Abstract:
The 2023 Canadian forest fires have been extreme in scale and intensity with more than seven times the average annual area burned compared to the previous four decades. Here, we quantify the carbon emissions from these fires from May to September 2023 on the basis of inverse modelling of satellite carbon monoxide observations. We find that the magnitude of the carbon emissions is 647 TgC (570–727 TgC), comparable to the annual fossil fuel emissions of large nations, with only India, China and the USA releasing more carbon per year. We find that widespread hot–dry weather was a principal driver of fire spread, with 2023 being the warmest and driest year since at least 1980. Although temperatures were extreme relative to the historical record, climate projections indicate that these temperatures are likely to be typical during the 2050s, even under a moderate climate mitigation scenario (shared socioeconomic pathway, SSP 2–4.5). Such conditions are likely to drive increased fire activity and suppress carbon uptake by Canadian forests, adding to concerns about the long-term durability of these forests as a carbon sink.
The Shifting Finance of Electricity Generation
Aleksandar Andonov & Joshua Rauh
NBER Working Paper, July 2024
Abstract:
Despite the incentives of incumbent domestic listed corporations (DLCs) in the electricity generation industry, private equity, institutional investors, and foreign corporations have played an outsized role in financing the energy transition. These new entrants are twice as likely to create power plants as incumbents. They owned 58% of wind, 47% of solar, and 34% of natural gas electricity production as of 2020. The ownership changes are concentrated in deregulated wholesale markets which attract more capital from new entrants to create renewable and natural gas plants, acquire existing plants, and accelerate the decommissioning of coal plants. Sales of fossil fuel plants from DLCs to foreign corporations result in some leakage, but private equity has similar decommissioning rates to incumbents. The new ownership types create more efficient power plants with a lower heat rate and improve the efficiency of acquired plants. Our results also highlight an important tradeoff in bringing new financing sources to the electricity sector. When selling electricity, private equity and foreign corporations use contracts with shorter duration, shorter increment pricing, and more peak-period sales, and obtain a $2.59 higher average price per MWh.
Sea-level rise causes shorebird population collapse before habitats drown
Martijn van de Pol et al.
Nature Climate Change, August 2024, Pages 839–844
Abstract:
Sea-level rise will lead to widespread habitat loss if warming exceeds 2 °C, threatening coastal wildlife globally. Reductions in coastal habitat quality are also expected but their impact and timing are unclear. Here we combine four decades of field data with models of sea-level rise, coastal geomorphology, adaptive behaviour and population dynamics to show that habitat quality is already declining for shorebirds due to increased nest flooding. Consequently, shorebird population collapses are projected well before their habitat drowns in this UNESCO World Heritage Area. The existing focus on habitat loss thus severely underestimates biodiversity impacts of sea-level rise. Shorebirds will also suffer much sooner than previously thought, despite adapting by moving to higher grounds and even if global warming is kept below 2 °C. Such unavoidable and imminent biodiversity impacts imply that mitigation is now urgently needed to boost the resilience of marshes or provide flood-safe habitat elsewhere.
The West Antarctic Ice Sheet may not be vulnerable to marine ice cliff instability during the 21st century
Mathieu Morlighem et al.
Science Advances, August 2024
Abstract:
The collapse of ice shelves could expose tall ice cliffs at ice sheet margins. The marine ice cliff instability (MICI) is a hypothesis that predicts that, if these cliffs are tall enough, ice may fail structurally leading to self-sustained retreat. To date, projections that include MICI have been performed with a single model based on a simple parameterization. Here, we implement a physically motivated parameterization in three ice sheet models and simulate the response of the Amundsen Sea Embayment after a hypothetical collapse of floating ice. All models show that Thwaites Glacier would not retreat further in the 21st century. In another set of simulations, we force the grounding line to retreat into Thwaites’ deeper basin to expose a taller cliff. In these simulations, rapid thinning and velocity increase reduce the calving rate, stabilizing the cliff. These experiments show that Thwaites may be less vulnerable to MICI than previously thought, and model projections that include this process should be re-evaluated.