Being Diplomatic
Buttery Guns and Welfare Hawks: The Politics of Defense Spending in Advanced Industrial Democracies
Guy Whitten & Laron Williams
American Journal of Political Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
In this article, we present a new theory that, given the economic consequences of military spending, some governments may use military spending as a means of advancing their domestic non-military objectives. Based on evidence that governments can use military spending as welfare policy in disguise, we argue that the role of ideology in shaping military spending is more complicated than simple left-right politics. We also present a theory that strategic elites take advantage of opportunities presented by international events, leading us to expect governments that favor more hawkish foreign policy policies to use low-level international conflicts as opportunities for increasing military spending. Using pooled time-series data from 19 advanced democracies in the post-World War II period, we find that government ideology, measured as welfare and international positions, interacts with the international security environment to affect defense spending.
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Tomas Tolvaisas
Journal of Cold War Studies, Fall 2010, Pages 3-31
Abstract:
Following the presentation of the American National Exhibition in Moscow in 1959, nine exhibits organized by the United States Information Agency traveled in the Soviet Union from 1961 to 1967. This article discusses the aims, preparation, content, and reception of these exhibits, which attracted more than five million visitors and provoked diverse reactions. The exhibitions and their guides served as a unique form of communication with Soviet citizens, informing them about U.S. achievements and freedoms and the American way of life. The initiatives offset Soviet Communist propaganda, advanced popular understanding of the United States, and promoted popular goodwill toward Americans. The low-key interactions between the guides and the visitors shed valuable light on the mindset and experiences of ordinary citizens in the USSR, who were a major target audience of these exhibitions, and also, more broadly, on U.S. public diplomacy during the Cold War.
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Postdetonation nuclear debris for attribution
A.J. Fahey, C.J. Zeissler, D.E. Newbury, J. Davis & R.M. Lindstrom
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, forthcoming
Abstract:
On the morning of July 16, 1945, the first atomic bomb was exploded in New Mexico on the White Sands Proving Ground. The device was a plutonium implosion device similar to the device that destroyed Nagasaki, Japan, on August 9 of that same year. Recently, with the enactment of US public law 111-140, the "Nuclear Forensics and Attribution Act," scientists in the government and academia have been able, in earnest, to consider what type of forensic-style information may be obtained after a nuclear detonation. To conduct a robust attribution process for an exploded device placed by a nonstate actor, forensic analysis must yield information about not only the nuclear material in the device but about other materials that went into its construction. We have performed an investigation of glassed ground debris from the first nuclear test showing correlations among multiple analytical techniques. Surprisingly, there is strong evidence, obtainable only through microanalysis, that secondary materials used in the device can be identified and positively associated with the nuclear material.
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The Political Economy of Democratic Militarism
Jonathan Caverley
Northwestern University Working Paper, July 2010
Abstract:
This paper presents a theory predicting capital-intensive defense preparation in democracies based on median voter preferences. By developing a highly capitalized military with a low probability of conscription and casualties, this median voter shifts her expected costs of conflict. Democracies with high economic inequality are likely to build larger and more heavily capitalized militaries in reaction to perceived threats than more egalitarian ones. Statistical analysis of both public opinion and state-level behavior links inequality and threat to military capitalization and defense spending in democracies. The paper concludes by exploring the theory's implications: if a majority of voters can dampen their aversion to war by the shifting of costs onto a wealthy minority, then a democracy with high income inequality and a capitalized military may more readily resort to an aggressive and militarized foreign policy.
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The power of war: Why Europe needs it
Peter van Ham
International Politics, November 2010, Pages 574-595
Abstract:
The European Union likes to portray itself as a postmodern entity that does not require war to establish itself as a political player. This breaks a pattern, as war and violence have historically played a major part in state formation and shaping the national interest. Europe's public disavowal of power gained political prominence after Robert Kagan's influential essay Power and Weakness. Kagan's depiction of Europe as a postmodern Kantian space was not unjustified, but his conclusion that a more military-capable Europe would close the transatlantic power gap, and hence make US-European cooperation easier, remains controversial. Robert Cooper nuanced Kagan's point by claiming that ‘Europe may have chosen to neglect power politics because it is militarily weak; but it is also true that it is militarily weak because it has chosen to abandon power politics'. Commentators have frequently summarized this ‘chicken-and-egg' dilemma by quipping that ‘if all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail', or, alternatively, ‘when all you have is a pen, every problem looks like a treaty'. What may at first glance sound like a silly, somewhat trivial, debate is actually a profound and fundamental question about the relationship between military power and foreign policy in general, and between war and identity in particular.
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The cultural psychology of Palestinian youth: A narrative approach
Phillip Hammack
Culture & Psychology, December 2010, Pages 507-537
Abstract:
Contemporary Palestinian youth engage with a tragic master narrative of loss and dispossession supported by the social structure of ongoing intractable conflict and Israeli military occupation. This article illustrates a narrative and idiographic approach to research in cultural psychology, interrogating the relationship between constructions of personal identity and the master narrative of Palestinian history and collective identity among contemporary youth. Narratives of youth reveal points of both convergence and divergence with the master narrative of Palestinian identity, the most notable of which are the reproduction of tragic stories of loss and dispossession and the current ideological divisions within Palestinian society between secular and religious nationalism. Implications for theory and methodological practice in cultural psychology are discussed.
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Credibility of Palestinian media as a source of information for opinion leaders
Nashat Aqtash
Journal of Arab & Muslim Media Research, November 2010, Pages 121-136
Abstract:
The main concern of this research is the credibility of Palestinian media amongst opinion leaders. The study surveyed 860 opinion leaders, (442) in the West Bank and (418) in Gaza, using purposive sample techniques. To assess credibility, opinion leaders were asked to answer according to the credibility scale developed by Gaziano and McGrath. The findings show that 35.6% of the opinion leaders considered the ‘Al-Jazeera' satellite TV station to be the most credible media source. Of the sample, 6.9% said the Internet is the most credible media. The majority of Hamas leaders (62.3%) trust their media and consider Hamas' media to be the most credible source. Only 8.1% of Fateh opinion leaders trust their media as a source of information. Among the local daily newspapers, Al-Quds seems to be the most credible source.
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The Rise of Iran: How Durable, How Dangerous?
Ali Rahigh-Aghsan & Peter Viggo Jakobsen
Middle East Journal, Autumn 2010, Pages 559-573
Abstract:
Iran is viewed by many as a rising power that poses an increasing threat to regional and even global security. This view is wrong for three reasons. Iran's hard and soft power is exaggerated by most accounts; it is too limited to allow the Iranians to dominate the Persian Gulf let alone the Middle East, and its brand of Shi'ism has very limited appeal outside of Iran. Second, growing internal political and economic instability will seriously limit Iran's bid for regional dominance. Third, the failure to stop the Iranian nuclear program has led analysts to underestimate the ability of the other regional powers and the West to balance Iran and contain its influence, even if it acquires nuclear weapons. If these limitations on Iranian power are taken into account the rise seems destined to be a short one.
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Evaluating "Humint": The Role of Foreign Agents in U.S. Security
Loch Johnson
Comparative Strategy, September 2010, Pages 308-332
Abstract:
Intelligence is considered the first line of defense in U.S. security against foreign threats. Relying on archival research, rare survey data, and interviews with policymakers and intelligence professionals, this research explores the contribution to America's security made by humint - spies - over the years. Humint has its downsides, especially the unreliability of agents, but it has proved to be a useful tool for gathering information about world affairs. Survey data from inside the intelligence community indicates a high level of reliance on humint by Washington decision makers. The prudent policymaker will continue to seek information from all collection sources, with human intelligence having a valuable role to play.
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Understanding Transitory Rainfall Shocks, Economic Growth and Civil Conflict
Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath
NBER Working Paper, October 2010
Abstract:
Miguel, Satyanath and Sergenti (2004) use rainfall variation as an instrument to show that economic growth is negatively related to civil conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. In the reduced form regression they find that higher rainfall is associated with less conflict. Ciccone (2010) claims that this conclusion is ‘erroneous' and argues that higher rainfall levels are actually linked to more conflict. In this paper we show that the results in Ciccone's paper are based on incorrect STATA code, outdated conflict data, a weak first stage regression and a questionable application of the GMM estimator. Leaving aside these data and econometric issues, Ciccone's surprising results do not survive obvious robustness checks. We therefore conclude that Ciccone's main claims are largely incorrect and reconfirm the original result by Miguel, Satyanath and Sergenti (2004), finding that adverse economic growth shocks, driven by falling rainfall, increases the likelihood of civil conflict in sub-Saharan Africa.
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Trade does promote peace: New simultaneous estimates of the reciprocal effects of trade and conflict
Håvard Hegre, John Oneal & Bruce Russett
Journal of Peace Research, November 2010, Pages 763-774
Abstract:
Two studies question whether economic interdependence promotes peace, arguing that previous research has not adequately considered the endogeneity of trade. Using simultaneous equations to capture the reciprocal effects, they report that trade does not reduce conflict, though conflict reduces trade. These results are puzzling on logical grounds. Trade should make conflict less likely, ceteris paribus, if interstate violence adversely affects commerce; otherwise, national leaders are acting irrationally. In re-analyzing the authors' data, this article shows that trade does promote peace once the gravity model is incorporated into the analysis of conflict. Both trade and conflict are influenced by nations' sizes and the distance separating them, so these fundamental exogenous factors must be included in models of conflict as well as trade. One study errs in omitting distance when explaining militarized disputes. The other does not adequately control for the effect of size (or power). When these theoretically informed changes are made, the pacific benefit of trade again appears. In new simultaneous analyses, the article confirms that trade promotes peace and conflict contemporaneously reduces commerce, even with extensive controls for traders' rational expectations of violence. Previous studies that address the endogeneity of trade by controlling for the years of peace - as virtually all have done since 1999 - have not overstated the benefit of interdependence. Commerce promotes peace because violence has substantial costs, whether these are paid prospectively or contemporaneously.
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Arab news networks and conspiracy theories about America: A political gratification study
Ali Al-Kandari
Journal of Arab & Muslim Media Research, November 2010, Pages 59-76
Abstract:
This study employs the gratification approach to examine the influence of Arab news networks on the belief in conspiracy theories about America in Kuwait. The data revealed that the 378 respondents strongly believed in the conspiracy theories. A factor analysis extracted four gratifications sought from viewing Arab news networks: information, social discussion, free marketplace of information and reinforcement. The regression analysis indicated that gender, the free marketplace of information gratification and viewing the ‘Arabic BBC' all negatively predicted the general belief in conspiracy theories about America, while no variable predicted belief in the 9/11 conspiracy theories. None of the variables was a positive predictor of belief in the theories. This study concludes that Arab news networks are not guilty of being a source of conspiracy theories about America, and that they may, on the contrary, be helping Arabs to consider certain aspects in a new light.
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Optimizing Topological Cascade Resilience Based on the Structure of Terrorist Networks
Alexander Gutfraind
PLoS ONE, November 2010, e13448
Abstract:
Complex socioeconomic networks such as information, finance and even terrorist networks need resilience to cascades - to prevent the failure of a single node from causing a far-reaching domino effect. We show that terrorist and guerrilla networks are uniquely cascade-resilient while maintaining high efficiency, but they become more vulnerable beyond a certain threshold. We also introduce an optimization method for constructing networks with high passive cascade resilience. The optimal networks are found to be based on cells, where each cell has a star topology. Counterintuitively, we find that there are conditions where networks should not be modified to stop cascades because doing so would come at a disproportionate loss of efficiency. Implementation of these findings can lead to more cascade-resilient networks in many diverse areas.
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The economic effects of violent conflict: Evidence from asset market reactions
Massimo Guidolin & Eliana La Ferrara
Journal of Peace Research, November 2010, Pages 671-684
Abstract:
This article studies the effects of conflict onset on asset markets applying the event study methodology. The authors consider a sample of 101 internal and inter-state conflicts during the period 1974-2004 and find that a sizeable fraction of them has had a significant impact on stock market indices, exchange rates, oil and commodity prices. This fraction is inconsistent with pure chance, that is, with the selected probability of type-I errors in our tests of statistical significance. The results suggest that, on average, national stock markets are more likely to display positive than negative reactions to conflict onset. When the authors distinguish between internal and inter-state conflicts, they find that the fraction of significant results is higher for international conflicts. When the authors classify events according to the region where they occur, they find that Asia and the Middle East are the regions where conflicts tend to have the strongest effects. Finally, the article reports evidence that abnormal returns would have accrued to investors systematically exploiting conflict onset to implement conflict-driven strategies. Results are robust to selecting a subset of high-intensity conflicts and to expanding the time window over which conflict events are defined. The findings of the article confirm the economic importance of the effects of conflicts on asset markets.
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Does political competition lessen ethnic discrimination? Evidence from Sri Lanka
Iffath Sharif
Journal of Development Economics, March 2011, Pages 277-289
Abstract:
The impact of political competition on ethnic discrimination remains largely unexplored. To address this gap, this paper explores the relationship between the level of political competition and the probability of receiving government transfers among ethnic minorities in Sri Lanka in the run up to the national elections of 2000. The paper shows that making politicians dependent on the votes of members of ethnic groups other their own can encourage moderation in discriminatory practices towards ethnic minorities. Specifically we find that political competition positively influenced the distribution of government food stamps among Sri Lankan Tamils, who otherwise are less likely to receive food stamps relative to the Sinhalese majority. The negative impact of political competition on discrimination is higher when minorities form part of swing constituencies than when they form part of the base support for political parties. Lessons learnt here suggest that having built-in incentives in the design of the electoral process for intergroup bargaining and cooperation in countries with ethnically heterogeneous societies can be an effective restraint on ethnic discrimination. This is consistent with other research that considers political institutions to be a key lever for making ethnically divided societies more inclusive.
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Organised crime and the efforts to combat it: A concern for public health
Lucy Reynolds & Martin McKee
Globalization and Health, 15 November 2010
Abstract:
This paper considers the public health impacts of the income-generating activities of organised crime. These range from the traditional vice activities of running prostitution and supplying narcotics, to the newer growth areas of human trafficking in its various forms, from international supply of young people and children as sex workers through deceit, coercion or purchase from family, through to forced labour and the theft of human tissues for transplant, smuggling of migrants, and sale of fake medications, foodstuffs and beverages, cigarettes and other counterfeit manufactures. It looks at the effect of globalisation on integrating supply chains from poorly-regulated and impoverished source regions through to their distant markets, often via disparate groups of organised criminals who have linked across their traditional territories for mutual benefit and enhanced profit, with traditional and newly-created linkages between production, distribution and retail functions of cooperating criminal networks from different cultures. It discusses the interactions between criminals and the structures of the state which enable illegal and socially undesirable activities to proceed on a massive scale through corruption and subversion of regulatory mechanisms. It argues that conventional approaches to tackling organised crime often have deleterious consequences for public health and calls for an evidence-based approach with a focus on outcomes rather than ideology.