Baby Step
Minimum Wages and Teenage Childbearing in the United States
Kyutaro Matsuzawa et al.
Journal of Applied Econometrics, forthcoming
Abstract:
The minimum wage is increasingly viewed as an important, but often neglected, tool for improving public health outcomes. Using data from the period 2003-2019 and a stacked difference-in-differences regression model that accounts for dynamic and heterogeneous treatment effects, we explore the relationship between minimum wages and teenage childbearing in the United States. We find no evidence of a systematic, negative relationship between minimum wages and childbearing among 15- through 19-year-olds. Likewise, our estimates are not consistent with the argument that minimum wages are an effective policy tool for discouraging female 15- through 19-year-olds from having unprotected sex.
Linking adolescent bullying perpetration with adult fertility: Two preliminary studies
Anthony Volk et al.
Evolutionary Behavioral Sciences, forthcoming
Abstract:
Researchers have suggested that bullying perpetration is, at least in part, an evolved adaptation. A key prediction of this evolutionary perspective is that bullying facilitates the transmission of genes from one generation to the next. To date, only one study (using a limited measure of bullying) has examined the link between adolescent bullying and adult fertility, showing a positive association between adolescent bullying and number of children in adulthood. We sought to replicate and expand this unique finding using a more robust measure of adolescent bullying and young adults' parental status in a prospective longitudinal study of Canadians (Study 1), along with an MTurk study of retrospective adolescent bullying and current adult fertility (Study 2). In support of an evolutionary theory of bullying, we found that higher bullying was associated with having children in young adulthood (ages 23 and/or 24 years, Study 1) and that retrospective reports of adolescent bullying were associated with having more children in adulthood (Study 2). Overall, our studies offer additional support for the idea that adolescent bullying is, at least in part, an evolutionary adaptation that may help individuals to later pass on their genes to future generations through enhanced reproductive and perhaps parental effort. Although needing replication, our data highlight the importance of considering reproductive outcomes when designing future bullying research or interventions.
The Insurance Value of Abortion and Support for Reproductive Rights
Natalie Hernandez, Alexander Trubowitz & Sam Zacher
Political Behavior, forthcoming
Abstract:
Existing scholarship holds that Americans' views on abortion policy are determined by their moral and religious beliefs. In this article, we argue that these beliefs are only part of the story. We propose that some Americans support pro-choice policies even if they have moral qualms about abortion because they are afraid of an unplanned transition to parenthood. Accessible abortion offers a kind of "insurance" against this risk. We expect individuals' support for abortion rights to decline after they become parents, since abortion's prospective insurance value declines after individuals have had their first child. Using panel survey data from the CCES, we find that the transition to parenthood makes Americans less supportive of abortion rights than they had been previously. This appears to be especially true of conservatives and practicing Christians, indicating that some members of these groups support abortion as a form of protection against unplanned parenthood until they experience life-cycle changes that reduce their personal interest in protecting reproductive rights. We conduct a variety of robustness tests to rule out alternative mechanisms that might link parenthood to a conservative shift in abortion policy preferences, bolstering confidence in the insurance mechanism proposed here.
The Road Not Taken: How Driving Distance and Appointment Availability Shape the Effects of Abortion Bans
Caitlin Myers, Daniel Dench & Mayra Pineda-Torres
NBER Working Paper, March 2025
Abstract:
We use difference-in-differences research designs to estimate the effects of abortion bans on births at the county level, leveraging data on changes in driving distance and appointment availability at the nearest facility where abortion remains legal. We find that bans alone increase births, but their total impact depends on geographic barriers to access. Even in counties where distance and appointment availability remain unchanged, a total ban leads to a 1.0% increase in births, suggesting a chilling effect -- potentially due to legal uncertainty, misinformation, or logistical hurdles -- that is independent of measurable barriers. However, the effects grow substantially with travel burdens. In counties where the nearest abortion facility was 50 miles away pre-Dobbs, a total ban increases births by 2.8% when distance rises to 300 miles. Limited appointment availability in destination cities further amplifies these effects, resulting in an additional 0.4 percentage point increase in births. The largest increases occur among Black and Hispanic women, those without a college degree, and unmarried women. We do not observe evidence that the effects have diminished with time despite expanded logistical, financial, and telehealth abortion support, underscoring the persistent role that geographic barriers play in abortion access.
Pro-Life Policy Preferences Partly Reflect Desires to Suppress Casual Sexual Behavior, Not Solely Sanctity of Life Concerns
Jordan Moon & Jaimie Arona Krems
Social Psychological and Personality Science, forthcoming
Abstract:
Pro-life individuals often emphasize sanctity-of-life concerns as driving their opposition to abortion. This implies the straightforward prediction that the more strongly people oppose abortion for such reasons (e.g., "abortion is murder"), the more they will endorse policies preventing abortions (face-value account). An alternative suggests that typically nonconscious reproductive goals (e.g., discouraging casual sex) influence policy preferences; this strategic account predicts a different pattern of policy endorsement: all else equal, abortion opponents will prioritize abortion-preventing policies discouraging casual sex. A pilot study and two preregistered U.S. experiments (N = 1,960) provide relatively greater support for the strategic account: the strongest abortion opponents more strongly endorse policies that prevent abortions by discouraging casual sex (e.g., abortion bans, abstinence-only sex education) over policies that do not (comprehensive sex education) -- even controlling for conservatism and religiosity. Commonly voiced arguments against abortion may be more rhetorically effective but less reflective of genuine drivers underlying arguers' beliefs.
Effects of US state paid family leave policies on perinatal and postpartum health: A quasi-experimental analysis
Whitney Wells et al.
American Journal of Epidemiology, forthcoming
Abstract:
The US is the only high-income country without a national paid family leave (PFL) policy, although several states have implemented policies recently. This study evaluated whether PFL policies in six states improved maternal and infant health. We used difference-in-differences, a quasi-experimental approach, to estimate the impact of state-level policy implementation. We leveraged recently developed methods designed to account for staggered policy implementation and treatment effect heterogeneity. Data were drawn from the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System 2004-2021 waves. Primary outcomes included breastfeeding, maternal postpartum depressive symptoms, and attendance at a postpartum check-up; secondary outcomes included birth outcomes. Multivariable regressions were adjusted for possible confounders. PFL policies led to increased breastfeeding duration (0.53 weeks; 95% CI: 0.06 to 0.99) and decreased depressive symptoms (-0.93 percentage points; 95% CI: -1.84 to -0.01). Policies were also associated with worsening of some birth outcomes, possibly reflecting selection in utero, data limitations, or true negative effects. Estimates were largely robust to alternative specifications, with subgroup differences by race/ethnicity and income. This study adds important evidence on the health effects of state-level PFL policies at a critical point when many states are considering or enacting policies, and during ongoing conversations about national PFL policy implementation.
The Role of Medication Abortion Provision in US States Without Total Abortion Bans, 2023
Isabel DoCampo, Rachel Jones & Isaac Maddow-Zimet
Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health, forthcoming
Methods: The Guttmacher Institute's Monthly Abortion Provision Study employs data from monthly samples of providers in a Bayesian hierarchical model to produce estimates of abortions provided within the formal healthcare system. We estimate the number and share of medication abortions provided in 2023 in states without total abortion bans and the share of abortions provided through telemedicine-only clinics.
Results: Clinicians provided 648,500 medication abortions within the formal healthcare system in 2023 in states without total bans (90% uncertainty interval: 640,720-657,860), representing 63% of all abortions. Ten percent of all abortions were provided by telemedicine-only clinics. The number of medication abortions provided in US states without total abortion bans increased by 19% between 2019 and 2020, and by 32% between 2020 and 2023.