Art of War
Fighting Terrorism through the Rule of Law?
Seung-Whan Choi
Journal of Conflict Resolution, forthcoming
Abstract:
The question of whether democratic institutions facilitate terrorist activities is a controversial one in current scientific studies of terrorism. Although the "rule of law" is an essential institutional pillar of any mature democracy, its direct effect on domestic and international terrorism remains unexplored. Conceiving democratic rule of law as the coexistence of effective and impartial judicial systems and citizens' recognition of the law as legitimate, the author presents a causal explanation in which a high-quality rule of law is considered to dampen ordinary citizens' opportunity and willingness to engage in political violence, protecting democracies from becoming victims of terrorism. Built on a cross-sectional, time-series data analysis of 131 countries during the period from 1984 to 2004, the author finds that, ceteris paribus, maintaining a sound rule of law notably reduces the likelihood of any type of terrorist events. In short, the rule of law instantiated in democratic institutions provides a formidable bulwark against terrorism.
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Gauging the Magnitude of Civilization Conflict
Glynn Ellis
Conflict Management and Peace Science, July 2010, Pages 219-238
Abstract:
Multiple studies of Huntington's suggestion of a clash of civilizations have found no support for it. This study does not reanalyze his thesis, but rather focuses on specific features of the different-civilization conflict he theorizes about. Using empirical analysis I find that different-civilization conflict is more prevalent than same-civilization conflict, and is therefore appropriate for continued scholarly examination. Even so, I conclude that over time it is not only shrinking as a percentage of the overall world conflict as previously reported but is doing so at a rate more pronounced than heretofore realized. My results support Roeder's findings that the most contentious civilizations are the West, Orthodox, and Islam, with Western states as a group being more contentious than the other two. As for a most contentious civilization dyad, I find the probability of conflict to be about the same for Western-Islamic and Western-Orthodox states. Finally, I conclude that the contentiousness of Western states derives in large part from their tendency to band together or cooperate during violent conflict.
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Imperial nostalgia, the liberal lie, and the perils of postmodern counterinsurgency
Alex Marshall
Small Wars & Insurgencies, June 2010, Pages 233-258
Abstract:
Since 9/11, counterinsurgency is back in fashion; the 'war on terror' has even been branded a 'global counterinsurgency'. However the context within which counterinsurgency originally arose is critical to understanding the prospects for its present success; the radically changed environment in which it is currently being conducted casts into considerable doubt the validity of the doctrine's application by many national militaries currently 'rediscovering' this school of military thought today. Above all, classical counterinsurgency was a profoundly imperial, state-centric phenomenon; consequently it only rarely faced the thorny issue of sovereignty and legitimacy which bedevils and may doom these same efforts today.
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Aiming to Break Will: America's World War II Bombing of German Morale and its Ramifications
Mark Clodfelter
Journal of Strategic Studies, June 2010, Pges 401-435
Abstract:
Current US Air Force doctrine emphasizes attacking an enemy's 'will to resist' without defining 'will'. Much of the Air Force's focus on will stems from prewar bombing doctrine and America's initial effort to break an enemy's morale with bombs - the aerial assault on Nazi Germany. That bombing revealed that a nation-state's will to resist actually consists of three distinctive elements - the will of its populace, government leaders, and the armed forces - which together form a collective desire to fight. The bombing also showed that the resilience of the individual components depends on the strength of the bonds that connect them and the war aims pursued by all belligerents. It further illustrated that the individual element most likely to break from air attack is the will of the armed forces.
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Combating the Financing of Terrorism: A History and Assessment of the Control of 'Threat Finance'
Michael Levi
British Journal of Criminology, July 2010, Pages 650-669
Abstract:
The history of international efforts to control the flow of funds to designated 'terrorist groups' via the formal financial system is examined. The work shows that - despite the high motivation of some governments and international banks to reduce terrorist attacks, which harm their citizens, customers, staff and profits - it remains difficult to determine how this private-public policing interface can rationally target 'risky capital'. Financial intelligence efforts have had little externally discernible impact on reducing levels of terrorism or on criminal convictions. It reviews evaluation problems in knowing whether the apparent lack of effects is due to measurement failure (estimating how much terrorist harm might have occurred had the controls not been imposed), theory failure or implementation failure. It argues for a more modest assessment of the likely impact of measures against financing terrorism and nuclear proliferation.
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Organized Crime and the Trafficking of Radiological Materials: The Case of Georgia
Alexander Kupatadze
Nonproliferation Review, July 2010, Pages 219-234
Abstract:
Based on unique empirical data, including interviews with smugglers of radiological materials and the investigators who track them, this article discusses nuclear smuggling trends in the former Soviet republic of Georgia. Smuggling in Georgia mainly involves opportunist smugglers and amateurs, as opposed to professional criminals and terrorists; however, this does not mean that radiological smuggling is devoid of professionalism or organization. The article demonstrates that professional criminals are rarely involved in smuggling due to the unreliable nature of the market for radiological materials and the threat radiological smuggling could pose to professional criminals' ability to wield political power and operate legal commercial enterprises.
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The 'Neo-Taliban' and Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan
Shehzad Qazia
Third World Quarterly, April 2010, Pages 485-499
Abstract:
Afghanistan has re-emerged as the centre of attention as the Obama administration tries to salvage the war. This article aims to dissect the neo-Taliban movement by reviewing literature on the current insurgency. It connects Jeremy Weinstein's theories of insurgent groups, their organisation, and use of violence with the works of Antonio Giustozzi and Robert Crews and Amin Tarzi on the neo-Taliban. It discusses the rise of the neo-Taliban, their political goals, organisational structure, and use of fourth generation warfare. Subsequently, using John Nagl's theories, the US-led counterinsurgency effort in Afghanistan is analysed. The neo-Taliban have reinvented themselves as a Pashtun nationalist movement, benefiting from the allegiance of disaffected tribes, and consolidated power through horizontal networks. The US-led counterinsurgency effort has been a politico-military failure, marred by civilian abuse and a delegitimised host government. The Karzai regime's unpopularity and the rebels' military gains make the prospects of a neo-Taliban defeat appear dismal.
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Adam Lankford
Aggression and Violent Behavior, forthcoming
Abstract:
Despite growing evidence to the contrary, it is still widely assumed that suicide terrorists are not actually suicidal. However, this review supports recent studies which suggest the opposite, and reviews the initial evidence that much like other suicidal individuals, many suicide terrorists appear to be driven by clinically suicidal risk factors, including: (1) the desire to escape the world they live in (2) the desire to escape moral responsibility for their actions, (3) the inability to cope with a perceived crisis, and (4) a sense of low self-worth. By establishing the links between suicide terrorism and suicidality, scholars may be able to better understand the nature of these violent attacks and develop more effective ways to stop them.
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An Overlapping Networks Approach to Resource Allocation for Domestic Counterterrorism
Michael Atkinson & Lawrence Wein
Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, July 2010, Pages 618-651
Abstract:
Motivated by the links between terror and crime and the difficulty in directly detecting terror activity, this article formulates and solves a resource allocation problem on overlapping networks to determine if interdiction efforts may be able to take advantage of these connections. The government, knowing only the general structure and overlap of the networks, allocates its scarce resources to investigate each terror and criminal network. There are two stages to the investigation: an initial investigation of all nodes (i.e., terrorists or criminals) and a secondary investigation of criminals identified during the initial investigation to determine if they are terrorists. Applying the model to data derived from a population of terrorists in the United States between 1971-2003 suggests that the government may be able to exploit the terror connections of crimes that are relatively uncommon, somewhat easy to detect, and are attractive to terrorists.
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Beyond Kantian Liberalism: Peace through Globalization?
Seung-Whan Choi
Conflict Management and Peace Science, July 2010, Pages 272-295
Abstract:
Although globalization has become one of the most salient issues in the study of international relations during the past few decades, its net effect on international conflict remains unexplored. I argue that although the manifold phenomena of globalization may conflict (i.e. produce both positive and negative influences), its overall consequences help foster a common peaceful disposition among national leaders who are then less likely to resort to arms in times of crisis. Based on a cross-sectional, time-series dyadic data analysis for 114 countries during the period from 1970 to 2001, this study reports that socio-economic and political globalization in its entirety generates a dampening effect on militarized interstate disputes. Even when common conflict-related control variables such as democracy, economic interdependence, joint membership in international organizations, and others are incorporated into the analysis, globalization emerges as the most powerful explanatory variable. Consequently, globalization when taken in its entirety represents an unambiguous force for interstate peace.
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The Taliban in southern Afghanistan: A localised insurgency with a local objective
Peter Dahl Thruelsen
Small Wars & Insurgencies, June 2010, Pages 259-276
Abstract:
This article gives an in-depth description and analysis of the Taliban insurgency in southern Afghanistan in 2008. It describes the local dynamics of the insurgency and argues that the Taliban should not be seen as a unified hierarchical actor that can be dealt with as part of a generic approach covering the whole of Afghanistan. The article will show that the insurgency in southern Afghanistan is highly localised in nature, being to a large extent driven by local commanders and local area networks often centred on individual commanders themselves. It will also show that the driver or cause behind the insurgency differ for the local Afghan Taliban and the foreign Pakistani Taliban respectively. The nature of the southern insurgency, with the local Taliban commanders working through local knowledge networks with a locally determined cause, implies that a strategic-level 'peace deal' with Tier I of the strategic Taliban leadership will not create the desired effect of ending the insurgency - there will not be an overall domino effect in these parts of the country.
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Targeting Nuclear Programs in War and Peace: A Quantitative Empirical Analysis, 1941-2000
Matthew Fuhrmann & Sarah Kreps
Journal of Conflict Resolution, forthcoming
Abstract:
When do states attack or consider attacking nuclear infrastructure in nonnuclear weapons states? Despite the importance of this question, relatively little scholarly research has considered when and why countries target nuclear programs. The authors argue that states are likely to attack or consider attacking nuclear facilities when they are highly threatened by a particular country's acquisition of nuclear weapons. Three factors increase the salience of the proliferation threat: (1) prior violent militarized conflict; (2) the presence of a highly autocratic proliferator; and (3) divergent foreign policy interests. The authors test these propositions using statistical analysis and a new data set on all instances when countries have struck or seriously considered striking other states' nuclear infrastructure between 1941 and 2000. The findings lend support for the theory and very little support for the alternative explanations. States are not deterred from attacking nuclear programs by the prospect of a military retaliation and concerns about international condemnation do not appear to influence the willingness to strike. Ultimately, states are willing to accept substantial costs in attacking if they believe that a particular country's acquisition of nuclear weapons poses a significant threat to their security.
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Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty: How the Dominoes Might Fall after U.S. Ratification
Liviu Horovitz & Robert Golan-Vilella
Nonproliferation Review, July 2010, Pages 235-257
Abstract:
President Barack Obama has pledged to secure the ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), which was previously rejected by the U.S. Senate in 1999. This article attempts to predict the potential implications of Washington's ratification for the treaty's future by analyzing the positions and options of the eight other essential holdouts. The authors conclude that without the United States to hide behind, facing domestic and international constraints, and lacking substantial strategic reasons to remain outside the treaty, most holdouts will move toward ratification. Nonetheless, the process is likely to be time consuming, and several of the key actors remain unpredictable.
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Gender, Crime and Terrorism: The Case of Arab/Palestinian Women in Israel
Anat Berko, Edna Erez & Julie Globokar
British Journal of Criminology, July 2010, Pages 670-689
Abstract:
This article compares the background, motivation, pathways and prison experiences of Arab/Palestinian women who were imprisoned for conventional crimes with those who were incarcerated for security-related or terrorism offences. In-depth interviews of the two groups were conducted in the Israeli prisons in which they served their sentences. Prison personnel were also interviewed and court and prison files examined to validate the women's background and criminal history. Although both groups transgressed gender expectations by venturing into male-dominated worlds (crime and terrorism), the data point to differences between the groups regarding their personal background and the manner in which their violations were influenced by gender and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The implications of the findings for differences between crime and terrorism as related to gender and Palestinian terrorism are discussed.