Air Conditioning
Continued warming could transform Greater Yellowstone fire regimes by mid- 21st century
Anthony Westerling et al.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, forthcoming
Abstract:
Climate change is likely to alter wildfire regimes, but the magnitude and timing of potential climate-driven changes in regional fire regimes are not well understood. We considered how the occurrence, size, and spatial location of large fires might respond to climate projections in the Greater Yellowstone ecosystem (GYE) (Wyoming), a large wildland ecosystem dominated by conifer forests and characterized by infrequent, high-severity fire. We developed a suite of statistical models that related monthly climate data (1972-1999) to the occurrence and size of fires >200 ha in the northern Rocky Mountains; these models were cross-validated and then used with downscaled (∼12 km × 12 km) climate projections from three global climate models to predict fire occurrence and area burned in the GYE through 2099. All models predicted substantial increases in fire by midcentury, with fire rotation (the time to burn an area equal to the landscape area) reduced to <30 y from the historical 100-300 y for most of the GYE. Years without large fires were common historically but are expected to become rare as annual area burned and the frequency of regionally synchronous fires increase. Our findings suggest a shift to novel fire-climate-vegetation relationships in Greater Yellowstone by midcentury because fire frequency and extent would be inconsistent with persistence of the current suite of conifer species. The predicted new fire regime would transform the flora, fauna, and ecosystem processes in this landscape and may indicate similar changes for other subalpine forests.
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Sex and Environmental Policy in the U.S. House of Representatives
Per Fredriksson & Le Wang
Economics Letters, forthcoming
Abstract:
Using LCV score data, we find that female legislators favor stricter environmental policies than do their male counterparts. Moreover, gender- corrected estimates suggest that voters do not push environmental policy towards the middle, but rather select the ideologically closest candidate.
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Cool dudes: The denial of climate change among conservative white males in the United States
Aaron McCright & Riley Dunlap
Global Environmental Change, forthcoming
Abstract:
We examine whether conservative white males are more likely than are other adults in the U.S. general public to endorse climate change denial. We draw theoretical and analytical guidance from the identity-protective cognition thesis explaining the white male effect and from recent political psychology scholarship documenting the heightened system-justification tendencies of political conservatives. We utilize public opinion data from ten Gallup surveys from 2001 to 2010, focusing specifically on five indicators of climate change denial. We find that conservative white males are significantly more likely than are other Americans to endorse denialist views on all five items, and that these differences are even greater for those conservative white males who self-report understanding global warming very well. Furthermore, the results of our multivariate logistic regression models reveal that the conservative white male effect remains significant when controlling for the direct effects of political ideology, race, and gender as well as the effects of nine control variables. We thus conclude that the unique views of conservative white males contribute significantly to the high level of climate change denial in the United States.
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John Loomis & Catherine Keske
Contemporary Economic Policy, forthcoming
Abstract:
Outdoor recreation is a large industry that can diversify public land-based economies that have traditionally relied upon resource extraction. However, what happens to nature-based recreation visitor spending and benefits during times of national economic recession? To address this question, we replicate a 2006 high mountain recreation study in the same region 3 years later during the 2009 recession. Results indicate that nature-based public land recreation in this area did not experience reductions in most categories of visitor spending or total number of visits during the recession. These results imply that nature-based recreation may represent an economically stable industry in public land mountain economies. Total benefits to the visitors are also quite stable, only dropping from $129 per person per trip in 2006 to $120 in 2009. This 7% drop in willingness to pay is not statistically significant at conventional levels.
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Infrasound From Wind Turbines Could Affect Humans
Alec Salt & James Kaltenbach
Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society, August 2011, Pages 296-302
Abstract:
Wind turbines generate low-frequency sounds that affect the ear. The ear is superficially similar to a microphone, converting mechanical sound waves into electrical signals, but does this by complex physiologic processes. Serious misconceptions about low-frequency sound and the ear have resulted from a failure to consider in detail how the ear works. Although the cells that provide hearing are insensitive to infrasound, other sensory cells in the ear are much more sensitive, which can be demonstrated by electrical recordings. Responses to infrasound reach the brain through pathways that do not involve conscious hearing but instead may produce sensations of fullness, pressure or tinnitus, or have no sensation. Activation of subconscious pathways by infrasound could disturb sleep. Based on our current knowledge of how the ear works, it is quite possible that low- frequency sounds at the levels generated by wind turbines could affect those living nearby.
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The Challenges of Decreasing Oil Consumption
Steve Yetiv & Eric Fowler
Political Science Quarterly, Summer 2011, Pages 287-313
Abstract:
Steve A. Yetiv and Eric S. Fowler quantify the benefits for the United States of achieving hybrid-like efficiency in its vehicle fleet. They show not only how important such a move can be, but also that if Chinese consumers continue to buy inefficient vehicles at a fast pace, they will sap America's efficiency gains rather quickly. They argue that oil dependence is not only an American, but also a global problem that cannot be addressed seriously without multilateral cooperation.
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Upset over Air Pollution: Analyzing Upset Event Emissions at Petroleum Refineries
Joshua Ozymy & Melissa Jarrell
Review of Policy Research, July 2011, Pages 365-382
Abstract:
The Clean Air Act (CAA) controls routine emissions at petroleum refineries, by creating limits and penalties for excess emissions. The CAA offers provisions for upset events, air emissions released because of unforeseen or unavoidable circumstances, if companies report the emissions and take corrective action. States enforce upset event rules and many states provide exemptions for a variety of circumstances, which may allow upset emissions to become a substantial, yet mostly unregulated source of emissions. We catalog the quantity and type of emissions generated during upset events at 18 Texas petroleum refineries from 2003 to 2008. We find that upset events occur frequently at these facilities and are collectively large in magnitude, emitting a combined total of 75 million lbs of emissions. In a select number of cases, single upset events exceeded annual emissions reported to the Toxics Release Inventory. Future research should assess the accuracy of upset event reporting and impact of upset events on environmental health.
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The Unusual Nature of Recent Snowpack Declines in the North American Cordillera
Gregory Pederson et al.
Science, 15 July 2011, Pages 332-335
Abstract:
In western North America, snowpack has declined in recent decades, and further losses are projected through the 21st century. Here, we evaluate the uniqueness of recent declines using snowpack reconstructions from 66 tree-ring chronologies in key runoff-generating areas of the Colorado, Columbia, and Missouri River drainages. Over the past millennium, late 20th century snowpack reductions are almost unprecedented in magnitude across the northern Rocky Mountains and in their north-south synchrony across the cordillera. Both the snowpack declines and their synchrony result from unparalleled springtime warming that is due to positive reinforcement of the anthropogenic warming by decadal variability. The increasing role of warming on large-scale snowpack variability and trends foreshadows fundamental impacts on streamflow and water supplies across the western United States.
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Convergence of atmospheric and North Atlantic carbon dioxide trends on multidecadal timescales
Galen McKinley et al.
Nature Geoscience, forthcoming
Abstract:
Oceanic uptake of carbon dioxide substantially reduces the rate at which anthropogenic carbon accumulates in the atmosphere1, slowing global climate change. Some studies suggest that the rate at which the oceans take up carbon has significantly decreased in recent years2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8. Others suggest that decadal variability confounds the detection of long- term trends9, 10, 11. Here, we examine trends in the partial pressure of carbon dioxide in the surface waters of three large biogeographic regions in the North Atlantic, using observational data collected between 1981 and 2009. We compare these oceanic observations with trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, taken from a global observational network. We show that trends in oceanic carbon dioxide concentrations are variable on a decadal timescale, often diverging from trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide. However, when the entire 29-year period is considered, oceanic trends converge with atmospheric trends in all three regions; it takes 25 years for this long-term trend to emerge and overcome the influence of decadal-scale variability. Furthermore, in the southernmost biome, the data suggest that warming-driven by a multidecadal climate oscillation and anthropogenic forcing12, 13-has started to reduce oceanic uptake of carbon in recent years.
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Recent ecological responses to climate change support predictions of high extinction risk
Ilya Maclean & Robert Wilson
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 26 July 2011, Pages 12337-12342
Abstract:
Predicted effects of climate change include high extinction risk for many species, but confidence in these predictions is undermined by a perceived lack of empirical support. Many studies have now documented ecological responses to recent climate change, providing the opportunity to test whether the magnitude and nature of recent responses match predictions. Here, we perform a global and multitaxon metaanalysis to show that empirical evidence for the realized effects of climate change supports predictions of future extinction risk. We use International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria as a common scale to estimate extinction risks from a wide range of climate impacts, ecological responses, and methods of analysis, and we compare predictions with observations. Mean extinction probability across studies making predictions of the future effects of climate change was 7% by 2100 compared with 15% based on observed responses. After taking account of possible bias in the type of climate change impact analyzed and the parts of the world and taxa studied, there was less discrepancy between the two approaches: predictions suggested a mean extinction probability of 10% across taxa and regions, whereas empirical evidence gave a mean probability of 14%. As well as mean overall extinction probability, observations also supported predictions in terms of variability in extinction risk and the relative risk associated with broad taxonomic groups and geographic regions. These results suggest that predictions are robust to methodological assumptions and provide strong empirical support for the assertion that anthropogenic climate change is now a major threat to global biodiversity.
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Green Shopping: For Selfish Reasons or the Common Good?
John Thøgersen
American Behavioral Scientist, August 2011, Pages 1052-1076
Abstract:
Findings suggesting that consumers buy "green" products, such as organic foods, for selfish reasons are usually accepted at face value. In this article, the author argues that the evidence backing this claim is questionable and that it reflects post hoc rationalizations and self- presentation biases on behalf of respondents. Knowing that one has incurred substantial personal costs by contributing to a worthy cause can create an uneasiness that one is motivated to relieve, especially when one is uncertain about the ultimate impact of this contribution. A possible coping strategy is to adjust one's beliefs about intangible private benefits in a way that justifies (bolsters) one's purchasing decision. A survey study among a representative sample of approximately 4,000 respondents from four European countries (Denmark, Germany, United Kingdom, and Italy) confirmed that this is exactly what "green" consumers do. On the basis of Schwartz's comprehensive Picture Value Questionnaire, it is also found that buying organic food is strongly, consistently, and positively related to unselfish values (i.e., universalism) but not selfish values (e.g., status, security, pleasure). This suggests that consumers at least start to buy these products for unselfish reasons (the common good). However, after having done so, they seem to bolster their beliefs about private benefits to preserve a self-image of being a competent and rational person.
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Leslie Richardson, Patricia Champ & John Loomis
Journal of Forest Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
There is a growing concern that human health impacts from exposure to wildfire smoke are ignored in estimates of monetized damages from wildfires. Current research highlights the need for better data collection and analysis of these impacts. Using unique primary data, this paper quantifies the economic cost of health effects from the largest wildfire in Los Angeles County's modern history. A cost of illness estimate is $9.50 per exposed person per day. However, theory and empirical research consistently find that this measure largely underestimates the true economic cost of health effects from exposure to a pollutant in that it ignores the cost of defensive actions taken as well as disutility. For the first time, the defensive behavior method is applied to calculate the willingness to pay for a reduction in one wildfire smoke induced symptom day, which is estimated to be $84.42 per exposed person per day.
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Jaegul Lee, Francisco Veloso & David Hounshell
Research Policy, forthcoming
Abstract:
This article uses a carefully screened patent database in automobile emission control technologies and a detailed regulatory action analysis to examine firms' innovation in response to U.S. technology-forcing auto emissions standards enacted between 1970 and 1998. The study finds that under the performance-based technology-forcing (PBTF) auto emissions regulations, both automakers and component suppliers innovated and introduced more advanced emission control technologies for automobile applications. The study also shows that stringent PBTF regulation temporarily induced domestic U.S. firms to become more innovative than foreign firms that operated in the local U.S. market during the early phase of the regulatory regime. Findings of this research strongly imply that government intervention in the form of technology-forcing regulation can drive firms to invest in technological innovation.
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Inequality, communication, and the avoidance of disastrous climate change in a public goods game
Alessandro Tavoni et al.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 19 July 2011, Pages 11825-11829
Abstract:
International efforts to provide global public goods often face the challenges of coordinating national contributions and distributing costs equitably in the face of uncertainty, inequality, and free-riding incentives. In an experimental setting, we distribute endowments unequally among a group of people who can reach a fixed target sum through successive money contributions, knowing that if they fail, they will lose all their remaining money with 50% probability. In some treatments, we give players the option to communicate intended contributions. We find that inequality reduces the prospects of reaching the target but that communication increases success dramatically. Successful groups tend to eliminate inequality over the course of the game, with rich players signaling willingness to redistribute early on. Our results suggest that coordination- promoting institutions and early redistribution from richer to poorer nations are both decisive for the avoidance of global calamities, such as disruptive climate change.
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Where Does Energy R&D Come From? Examining Crowding Out from Energy R&D
David Popp & Richard Newell
Energy Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
Recent efforts to endogenize technological change in climate policy models demonstrate the importance of accounting for the opportunity cost of climate R&D investments. Because the social returns to R&D investments are typically higher than the social returns to other types of investment, any new climate mitigation R&D that comes at the expense of other R&D investment may dampen the overall gains from induced technological change. Unfortunately, there has been little empirical work to guide modelers as to the potential magnitude of such crowding out effects. This paper considers both the private and social opportunity costs of climate R&D. Addressing private costs, we ask whether an increase in climate R&D represents new R&D spending, or whether some (or all) of the additional climate R&D comes at the expense of other R&D. Addressing social costs, we use patent citations to compare the social value of alternative energy research to other types of R&D that may be crowded out. Beginning at the industry level, we find no evidence of crowding out across sectors - that is, increases in energy R&D do not draw R&D resources away from sectors that do not perform R&D. Given this, we proceed with a detailed look at alternative energy R&D. Linking patent data and financial data by firm, we ask whether an increase in alternative energy patents leads to a decrease in other types of patenting activity. While we find that increases in alternative energy patents do result in fewer patents of other types, the evidence suggests that this is due to profit-maximizing changes in research effort, rather than financial constraints that limit the total amount of R&D possible. Finally, we use patent citation data to compare the social value of alternative energy patents to other patents by these firms. Alternative energy patents are cited more frequently, and by a wider range of other technologies, than other patents by these firms, suggesting that their social value is higher.
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Are government policies effective in promoting deployment of renewable electricity resources?
Gireesh Shrimali & Joshua Kniefel
Energy Policy, September 2011, Pages 4726-4741
Abstract:
Using a panel data over 50 US states and years 1991-2007, this paper uses a state fixed-effects model with state-specific time-trends to estimate the effects of state policies on the penetration of various emerging renewable electricity sources, including wind, biomass, geothermal, and solar photovoltaic. Renewable portfolio standards with either capacity or sales requirements have a significant impact on the penetration of all types of renewables-however, this impact is variable depending on the type of renewable source: it is negative for combined renewables, wind, and biomass; and positive for geothermal and solar. Further, clean energy funds and required green power options mostly result in increasing the penetration of all types of renewables. On the other hand, voluntary renewable portfolio standards as well as state green power purchasing programs are found to be ineffective in increasing the penetration of any type of renewable source. Finally, economic variables, such as electricity price, natural gas price, and per capita GDP as well as structural variables, such as league of conservation voters rating and the share of coal-generated electricity are found to be generally insignificant, suggesting the crucial role of policy in increasing the penetration of renewables.
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Estimating the supply and demand of gasoline using tax data
David Coyle, Jason DeBacker & Richard Prisinzano
Energy Economics, forthcoming
Abstract:
We estimate supply and demand functions for the U.S. gasoline market using information from excise tax returns provided by the IRS for the period 1990- 2009. We find price and income elasticities of demand similar to those found using EIA data. We find a price elasticity of supply of 0.29, which differs from the common assumption of a perfectly inelastic short-run supply curve. By using a novel data source, the analysis provides a robustness check of aggregate studies of gasoline demand and a consistent, econometric estimate of the price elasticity of gasoline supply. The results are useful in guiding tax and regulatory policies regarding gasoline consumption.
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Jonathan Levy et al.
Risk Analysis, forthcoming
Abstract:
Demand for air travel is projected to increase in the upcoming years, with a corresponding influence on emissions, air quality, and public health. The trajectory of health impacts would be influenced by not just emissions growth, but also changes in nonaviation ambient concentrations that influence secondary fine particulate matter (PM2.5) formation, population growth and aging, and potential shifts in PM2.5 concentration-response functions (CRFs). However, studies to date have not systematically evaluated the individual and joint contributions of these factors to health risk trajectories. In this study, we simulated emissions during landing and takeoff from aircraft at 99 airports across the United States for 2005 and for a 2025 flight activity projection scenario. We applied the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model with the Speciated Modeled Attainment Test (SMAT) to determine the contributions of these emissions to ambient concentrations, including scenarios with 2025 aircraft emissions and 2005 nonaviation air quality. We combined CMAQ outputs with PM2.5 mortality CRFs and population projections, and evaluated the influence of changing emissions, nonaviation concentrations, and population factors. Given these scenarios, aviation-related health impacts would increase by a factor of 6.1 from 2005 to 2025, with a factor of 2.1 attributable to emissions, a factor of 1.3 attributable to population factors, and a factor of 2.3 attributable to changing nonaviation concentrations which enhance secondary PM2.5 formation. Our study emphasizes that the public health burden of aviation emissions would be significantly influenced by the joint effects of flight activity increases, nonaviation concentration changes, and population growth and aging.